Astronomy, Photography and Weather

General Category => Weather & Atmospherics => Topic started by: markt on October 11, 2009, 11:03:39 am



Title: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on October 11, 2009, 11:03:39 am
Ok, I thought I would kick this one off as i've certainly been thinking about what this winter likely has in store for us...

If you look on the Met Office, they have one of their usual classic forecasts on there - everything is average http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html , then cover their backs by saying there is a chance of it being colder.  Heck, I could get a job with these guys and make such startling predictions!

One of my favourites is Joe Bastardis European Blog on Accuweather http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather - atleast he puts a little more meat into his forecast.  If Joe is correct in his detail then we can no doubt expect the BBC weather to be talking about the 'arctic pipeline' opening up.

I'm no expert in coming up with these long range forecasts, I just like to take it all in and make a few decisions myself based on what i've read.  I personally hope for a winter with some proper winter weather - the years of dull, mild winters are depressing.  It would be nice to get some periods of proper winter snowfall, but then also have the cold clear spells also to take in the winter constellations.

Has anybody else got any links to other winter forecasts or discussions?  Could be interesting to see which of the forecasts are right...  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on October 11, 2009, 03:00:13 pm
Netweather.tv do a long range forecast, which gets updated all the time....

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Choose your location and see what it says.

Some people reckon this could be a very cold Winter. Parts of NE Europe are expected to have one of the coldests Winters for a long time, with possibly the UK and Ireland getting some of this, however other sources disagree with this.

I would love a good Winter with deep snow, feels like al ong time since I've had a good fall here, maybe 2006 when it snowed on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, that was fantastic, proper snow too. I would actually prefer the big Atlantic wind storms and severe cold fronts over the snow though with some thundersnow thrown in. Well, it will be interesting to see what happens.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on October 15, 2009, 06:03:51 pm
An intersting update on Joe Bastardis blog this week regards the European winter:  He reckons the pressure pattern we have at the moment is typical of what we will be seeing when winter decides to 'bite' us in Europe...

This could be an interesting one, as today, for me it has been pouring down all day despite the fact the needle on my barometer is swung round all the way to the right as a result of the high pressure we are under...  Hmmm, gotta love British weather  :-\

Anyway, i've quoted his text below...


WEDNESDAY
WOW!!!

While I expect November to be tranquil in Europe, what you see now is a "warmup" for winter as the overall winter pattern is one that favors the cold where it is going now not only in Europe, but the United States and the Far East also.

But check this out of the ECMWF site (a favorite of mine, and the model that I think is the most useful out there) http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/banner/page.html

It shows the extremity of this cold we are seeing now.

Again watch the winter... the forecast here has it cold across much of Europe, which is different from Hadley, though I have great respect for them. But what you see now, though backing down in November, may telegraph what is coming later!

Now this is no more a sign of an ice age as warm events are a sign of the fiery abyss that some seem to think it is on the way. It is a hint from Mother Nature, that she, not man, is in control no matter what our better angels or most devilish demons may tell us.

Ciao for now.

****


GET USED TO IT

FROM THE AUSTRIA TIMES

http://austriantimes.at/news/General_News/2009-10-12/17147/Early_snow_records_set_to_be_broken


While this is not the "start" of winter, keep in mind the winter idea issued for you here is calling for a harder-than-normal winter in much of Europe. Combine this with wetter than normal in the southern and eastern part of Europe, and I think this is the start of the banner year for the Alps. In fact, since it's already snowed there and I did have a previous "get used to it" post, this is just the second round.

There is still some pleasant fall weather left, and in fact I think a nice November is on the way for Europe, with above-normal temps across much of the continent. But the winter hound will be waiting and will come calling this year.... Make no mistake my ideas are colder than the Hadley Center... they were last winter also.

I do think the Hadley Center took too much grief for the summer in the northwest. While it was wet, they were right about it being warm. The data does not lie, when left untouched and here is London.

TOTALS FOR EGLL HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 88 TOTAL PRECIP 6.54 LOWEST TEMPERATURE 46 TOTAL SNOWFALL 0.0 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 64.7 NORMAL PRECIP 6.30 DEPARTURE FROM NORM +3.0 % OF NORMAL PRECIP 104 HEATING DEGREE DAYS 164 NORMAL DEGREE DAYS 307

That is a nice deviation from normal. However, we are in disagreement this winter, though we weren't in disagreement on the summer.

Anyone for some yodeling in the Alps.. just bundle up.



Link to his blog here >>>  http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on October 16, 2009, 04:20:04 pm
Thanks for the information Mark, that's very interesting. Always good to get several opinions on the forecast. Parts of Europe will be turning very cold in the near future so perhaps we will be in for a cold Winter this year. Those in Nebraska have already had a significant early snow fall event.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on October 17, 2009, 10:13:01 am
Parts of Europe will be turning very cold in the near future so perhaps we will be in for a cold Winter this year.
Well, I can't say anything about next winter (although I hope there'll be much snow), but I can say a bit about the current weather situation. There is a powerful LP area above Poland, which causes inflow of arctic air into W & central Europe (thanks for the link to austrian website btw), and on the other hand, Ukraine experiences southern and SW winds during last week or so, hence the rainy air masses from Balkans come here one by one, with some clear spells between them. Along with that, the temperatures keep relatively high, varying mostly from +10 to +18C. There is also a powerful anticyclone above Central Asia, which affects the weather in S Russia as well as sometimes in E Ukraine. It has not actually reached Poltava, but on some days in October we had max temperatures up to +23C - that's pretty high for mid October. My statistics for the first half of October in Poltava reveal that the deviation form normal is +3°C, however it may be sufficiently colder in the end of the month, making an average temperature closer to its normal value.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on October 28, 2009, 11:54:23 am
Netweather updated it's winter forecast yesterday - certainly for my part of the world - the West Midlands, a colder but drier than average winter is forecast.  Given the unseasonably mild temperatures we're experiencing this week I suspect when the wind does change we will notice it!

Here's the link anyway http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=;loc=WMids  you can change to your particular location with the drop down menu towards the top of the page

:)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on October 31, 2009, 07:52:35 am
This Saturday (Haloween) is already a good day for winter.  :)
Last night it was -4.3°C in Poltava (record low for October), and now there is an extremely sunny morning!  8)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on October 31, 2009, 11:34:46 am
This week just gone we've had record 'warm' temperatures here in the UK...  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on November 02, 2009, 01:18:46 pm
Yahoo! It seems that the winter here is not far away! Today there is first snow in Poltava :)
At the moment the sky is partly cloudy, the Sun is shining low in SW, but a mini-snowfall from a Sc cloud in north lasted for a few minutes just before I wrote this post. Temperature +1C, and it was slightly below zero last night.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on November 02, 2009, 05:43:18 pm
Nice one Roman - I'm jealous  :)

This time last year we already had our first snow fall before Halloween...this year its very mild and wet.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on November 03, 2009, 12:53:40 pm
Well, yesterday it was actually nothing, but today I see that it is snowing intensively in E Ukraine at the moment. And I have also seen that southern Russia (Rostov - Krasnodar) experienced heavy snowfall last night, you can see it too: http://www.astronomy.ru/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=21658.0;attach=207677;image
All I can say about my area that probably it may be gently snowing today & tomorrow, but it isn't likely that the winter will begin until December.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on November 03, 2009, 01:50:58 pm
All I can say about my area that probably it may be gently snowing today & tomorrow (...)
I guessed right!  :)
Now it is gently snowing, sky is covered with St fra. & Ac trans., temperature -2°C (mostly below zero today).
It may be no more snow here in a week (or two) ahead, because +14C is forecasted for next Sunday.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on November 03, 2009, 07:19:58 pm
Our weather at the minute is typical of this time of the year with wind and rain, maybe a few dry days in between and the odd altlantic storm thrown in for good measure.  On one hand i like this weather for the possibilities of extreme wind and rain events with even the chance of a thunderstorm/tornado, but nothing beats a lovely frosty morning when everything is pure white and im out walking in the country with my dog and camera.  A few weeks of frost and snow now that would be nice. Everyone will think im mad after this!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on November 04, 2009, 12:00:34 pm
A few weeks of frost and snow now that would be nice. Everyone will think im mad after this!
Absolutely not! I love this kind of weather (though it happens mostly in January)
(http://i34.tinypic.com/10qgnwg.jpg)

 :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on November 04, 2009, 02:24:24 pm
Great photo Roman!  8) 


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on November 16, 2009, 09:38:47 pm
Check out the latest models for Dec 25th...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

Good chance of snow for Christmas, or at least crisp Winter conditions.  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on November 24, 2009, 09:13:59 pm
The models are developing quite interestingly for the winter period now, if anything there's a delay in their stated release date...  One thing that seems for certian is that eastern europe is in for a very cold high pressure winter, the atlantic is set to be warmer, low pressure.  Where the debate becomes interesting and the detail scant is where these 2 airmasses will meet and have their 'interaction'.   

Check out the links for more detail...

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

Lot of technical detail here but I quite like this one >>>

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winter-forecast;sess=


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 06, 2009, 03:00:08 pm
Quoted from Joe Bastardis blog on Accuweather...

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

SATURDAY 5 PM
WINTER ON THE HORIZON DEC 15-25...BACKS IN FROM THE EAST.


While the next 7-10 days are relatively tranquil as the extreme rainfall of November has relaxed and there is not alot of cold in the pattern..right now. But the hounds of winter are gathering and whether this is the start of the pattern that I am looking for mid and late winter, or just a prelim glimpse, the threat of major eastern and central Euro cold, that can develop west with time, is on the horizon.


While the ridge is over western Europe overall the next 5 days, it will reposition itself northwest to over Greenland and iceland between the 15th and 20th. This will mean pressures build over Scandinavia and just in time for the Christmas season large amounts of cold air will spread back south and west through Europe.

Again, this is in line with ideas in the winter forecast, that we would see more than normal blocking and with it, the threat of cold working back to the west. Such a pattern while still 10 days or more away could last right through the New Years and supply much of europe, though centered in the east... with a cold holiday season.

thanks for reading, ciao for now ****


Maybe this yucky wet Atlantic weather we have will break and we'll get some seasonally cold weather?


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 07, 2009, 11:19:43 pm
Models are showing high pressure buliding for the second half of Dec with cold weather on the way. There may even be a chance of snow for some areas over Christmas! - let's not jinx it  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 07, 2009, 11:24:17 pm
Or maybe not, this was posted by Matt from the UKWW....

-3C 850 mb Wet Potential Temps across the E and SE for a time next Tues/Wed if you believe ECMWF 12z, blasting down from the NE (exceptionally cold air floods SW out of NW Russia across E Scandinavia a day or two before, and warms slightly as it heads SW). However, as Paul says it is mainly Europe that is affected thereafter, as upstream developments (over NE USA and E Atlantic) would eventually favour a 'toppling' warm ridge across the UK by the end of next week, rather than a prolonged easterly flow.

So, chance of a couple of cold easterly incursions. The first this Sat and a second, potentially much colder one the following Tues/Wed with something briefly less cold in between as a low slides SSE down the N Sea and brings a shot of Atlantic air with it. Growing confidence on the intial one (should lead to a frosty weekend over S and E areas at least) but still moderate/low confidence on the 2nd IMO.

Thereafter, quite tricky to pin down exactly what will happen but this will hinge on factors such as the upstream pattern over the USA/Canada and E Atlantic and whether the flow will remain strongly meridional here or not. Unless the jet stream is forced south under the block by deep trough in the eastern/central Atlantic, a more zonal flow to our west will not favour prolonged blocking. GFS 12z, IMO, is more than likely going OTT and should be taken with a pinch of salt at this stage!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on December 07, 2009, 11:30:42 pm
I,ll be happy if we get one or two clear nights next sun/mon for the geminids!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: jjb on December 07, 2009, 11:39:32 pm
The bbc forecast have high pressure building this weekend and lasting most of next week if not it all i guess time will tell the only danger with it will be fog
so with some luck the geminids might be good.


jonathan.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on December 08, 2009, 10:26:44 am
The winter began here yesterday (Dec.07) as the temperature dropped below zero (today it is -2...0C) and probably will not rise back, but it may be even colder (-5...-10C) next week. It was slightly snowing yesterday, but there's still nothing on the ground.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Padraig OBrien on December 08, 2009, 03:11:59 pm
god ive missed the weather for the past week had a dose of the  dare i say it swine flue easing now wudnt wish it on my worst enemy to catch it but i hear there is a shivering spell on the way


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 08, 2009, 03:15:26 pm
Sorry to hear that Padraig, I take it you are fine now?. You are very lucky.

High pressure and cold weather does look to be on the cards very soon, will it be the bad kind with stagnant grey clouds or will it be crisp clear skies with frost and a risk of snow?...time will tell.  :)

Glad Winter has finally arrived in Ukraine Roman, it won't be log before you get those crazy sub zero temps again.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on December 08, 2009, 04:07:08 pm
Quote
You are very lucky.
What, lucky to get it, lucky to survive or what?

About 3 weeks ago I had a dose of something which was almost imperceptible at the time but left me feeling like I was recovering from a dose of flu - you know, the tiredness, depression, aches & pains & do on.

BTW swine flu being Mexican in origin, the trick with the hat and the bottle of whiskey doesn't work, unless the whiskey is substituted by tequila. (Go to bed, place hat at foot of bed, drink from bottle till second hat appears, when you sober up the 'flu will have flown).


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 08, 2009, 05:56:53 pm
Lucky to survive  :)

Interesting remedy there Brian, I like the sound of that better than any pills. Do I need to where a hat though?, and if so, what kind?.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Padraig OBrien on December 08, 2009, 06:05:02 pm
It was a lot of pains throughout my body could hardly move to look out the window to see what the weather was like but one min i was pulling the covers up, then throwing them off me hot and cold ya know


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on December 11, 2009, 08:04:56 am
It is snowing here every day for already 5 days, but the first sufficient snowfall this year occured last night, hence there is the first snow on the ground. This nice snowfall doens't stop at the moment too.  :)
(http://i50.tinypic.com/wt887c.jpg)
P.S. Temperature is -1C but I guess the snow will not melt in a week ahead.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on December 11, 2009, 09:01:55 am
(...) Roman, it won't be log before you get those crazy sub zero temps again.
Hey Martin, did you guess it or watch the forecast recently?  ;)

An arctic air mass will probably start going southwestwards on Sun/Mon night, and reach Ukraine on Tue/Wed night, causing -12C here in Poltava and maybe even -20C in E Ukraine. I hope Meteoblue tells true, and there will be some clear skies next week along with the frost.  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: JohnC on December 11, 2009, 10:38:24 pm
Quote
You are very lucky.
What, lucky to get it, lucky to survive or what?

About 3 weeks ago I had a dose of something which was almost imperceptible at the time but left me feeling like I was recovering from a dose of flu - you know, the tiredness, depression, aches & pains & do on.

BTW swine flu being Mexican in origin, the trick with the hat and the bottle of whiskey doesn't work, unless the whiskey is substituted by tequila. (Go to bed, place hat at foot of bed, drink from bottle till second hat appears, when you sober up the 'flu will have flown).


Lol...I thought that too- Re  Padraig being 'lucky ' I needed a laugh.  It's always the unintentional comments that  are the gems and Brian's droll question just enhanced it.

I know how to cure swine flu but it's a bit harsh. What you do is to  wrap a cold wet towel around yourself - nothing else just the towel and  when it's cold outside (better with a bit of  chilly wind too ) sit at an open window  in a draught and this way you'll likely get pneumonia and they can cure that. I  fancied being a Dr. one time but the long hours put me off..  ;D

Better get back on topic. I've seen a chart of where they think snow may fall and it's missing us - all around but we miss it.I'm sure  that could change though.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 13, 2009, 01:24:20 am
Hey Roman...it was just a pot luck guess lol. Glad you got the snow though, still waiting on my first this year.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 13, 2009, 07:07:09 am
Hey Roman...it was just a pot luck guess lol. Glad you got the snow though, still waiting on my first this year.

Fingers crossed we may well get some next week, though looking at the charts / data i'm not convinced (for where I live anyway) there will be any huge amount.  Wonder how little it will take this year to grind the UK to a halt  :P


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on December 13, 2009, 08:55:37 am
Quote
Wonder how little it will take this year to grind the UK to a halt
Two flakes is more than enough, if they fall in central London. Especially if one happens to fall onto railway tracks.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Big Dipper on December 13, 2009, 07:28:07 pm
Quote
Wonder how little it will take this year to grind the UK to a halt
Two flakes is more than enough, if they fall in central London. Especially if one happens to fall onto railway tracks.

OUCH! But I like it!! (http://www.mackenzie1963.freeserve.co.uk/Smilies/AMac's/fing27%5B1%5D.gif)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on December 15, 2009, 07:00:21 pm
I can not comment this forecast, it is just crazy...  :)
(http://i45.tinypic.com/5mbr6p.png)

I will be rolling on floor laughing if it would return back to positive temperatures (along with rain) during the last days of 2009, as the forecasts suggest.  :P


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 15, 2009, 08:40:58 pm
Lol, it looks like we're in for a chilly few days ahead here in the UK too.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on December 15, 2009, 09:56:56 pm
Some fresh news from tonight... It is only a midnight here, but in northern Ukraine (~200km from Poltava) it is already -20C and even below. Here it keeps to be -10...-12C, slightly snowing, and I saw the light pillars (>100m high) in the air.

Hmm, the frosts we have here seem to be absolutely not a problem, since a man from Permsky kray (European Russia) has told that they have first clear skies tonight, but he's afraid to go outside observing because it is... -45C! OMG!  :o Also, I've seen on TV now that Moscow has somewhat below -25C tonight.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 16, 2009, 07:25:37 am
Tee hee hee, that's 'Extreme Weather' Roman, would love that to happen in the UK, I would be rolling around on the floor laughing at how pathetically the UK coped.  It's more 'chilly' n the UK rather than cold, but is set to change colder by the weekend - I reckon we'll see the country grinding to a halt before too long  :P


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on December 16, 2009, 08:05:35 am
I didn't need to wait long to see it...
Here is what it was like at the time of sunrise, and the same kept until 9AM. The sky is partly cloudy (Ac, Cs).
(http://i46.tinypic.com/300xmib.jpg)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 16, 2009, 06:11:04 pm
My goodness, you really are getting severe winter weather Roman...stay warm.

Hopefully we will get some Winter weather action over the weekend here in NI, there's a chance of snow but don't want to say anything more about it incase I jinx it. I wonder if we will get snow on Christmas Eve and Day  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Padraig OBrien on December 17, 2009, 04:29:29 pm
have had some snow today really nice  and snowing now


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 17, 2009, 11:31:48 pm
Great stuff Padraig!

Thundersnow in Britain and ROI this evening.

Met Office going for snow in N. Ireland Sat/Sun.

It's freezing here tonight and the sky is fantastic!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Tyler on December 18, 2009, 12:54:17 am
Glad I'm not the only one suffering through a brutally cold winter, or December rather. Been very cold here the last two weeks, temps ranging from -5 to -25C most of that time. Not to mention the 21" of snow we've received this winter, our yearly average is 28" I think, so we're way ahead of pace. I am ready for the cold to go and to melt the snow! 73 days until march 1!! and the start of severe weather season.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on December 18, 2009, 06:05:01 am
It's freezing here tonight and the sky is fantastic!
It doensn't look so easy here. Temperature keeps within -10...-15C, weak snowstorm last night, and now I look in the window and see ~15cm of snow on the ground. We're waiting for two powerful snowstorms on Sat & Sun, meanwhile the daytime temperature would rise up to -4...+1C. And then again, on Tue-Wed the temperature will drop into -15C daytime and -20C (and possibly lower) at night, and there is some probability of clear skies!  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 18, 2009, 07:10:38 am
Brrrrr!!!  You guys have certainly got it chilly!  I'm in the West Midlands and we've had no snow at all yet.  Temperatures are hovvering around freezing with a parky wind chill to factor in - but nowhere near like what you've got Roman and Tyler.  I'm hoping for me the best chances of some snow appear this weekend when the wind switches round to the north and pulls a few fronts down with it - the same snow as you'll likely get Martin, though, tbh, unless we get stuck under a 'snow streamer' I don't think there will be much chance of it!  My only glimmer of hope is the 'funneling' effect of the Cheshire gap - Welsh mountains to the west, Pennine highground to the east, gap in between - with north / north westerlys it can give us focussed bands of showers.  Trouble is these bands are very narrow at best, if you're under one you'll know it, if not you'll wonder what the fuss is about.  The view from my loft window faces west and it is often possible to see virgas in the distance when we have weather associated with the Cheshire gap... 

I break up from work (school) at lunch today, so snow or not i'm hoping to try and make use of the clear skies and get the scope out over the next couple of days / week - I fancy seeing if I can get me some nice pics.  Jupiter setting in the west, mars in the south east and the winter sky to behold...

If I do get any snow i'll post you some pics!

Mark :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 18, 2009, 01:02:32 pm
SE Britain is getting plenty of snow now, my friend rang me from London airport and he can't get his flight home to NI due to the snow.

There might be snow showers in NI this afternoon/evening in the N and E.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on December 18, 2009, 01:12:31 pm
Quick look at the radar and it seems to be snowing lightly on the north coast around coleraine/Portrush!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 18, 2009, 01:52:27 pm
I'm expecting it here anytime soon...Sunday is looking great for snow  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Padraig OBrien on December 18, 2009, 02:10:03 pm
yesterday evening i had a dusting  but i got more overnight and i woke up to a lovely winter wonderland freezing cold even now its 0.5c


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 18, 2009, 03:16:51 pm
It's snowing in Maghera now!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on December 18, 2009, 05:15:35 pm
A nice little dusting here in Omagh now.  Just watched BBC news 24 weather and they said it will be 'primarily rain' for Northern Ireland tomorrow  :(   but yeah sunday looks good  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Padraig OBrien on December 18, 2009, 10:22:15 pm
More snow from that band sliding south  on top of what i have already about an inch on grass and half an inch on roads nice start to this years season tomorow looks interesting will have to wait and see altough i have no doubts it will be cold enough fo the white stuff to fall  as the front pushed south across the south


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 19, 2009, 12:38:45 am
UKww Weather Warning & Watch – Heavy Snowfall, Drifting.

Valid from: 0600z Saturday 19/12 to 0600z Monday 21/12  2009;

Areas affected: Warning: Northern and western Scotland, NW England, N Ireland, N Wales. Please see Forecast text for details. Watch – rest of the UK away from SW England.

General evolution: A very cold, Polar Continental airmass will affect many southern and eastern parts of the UK at the start of the forecast period. Further north and west, a slightly less cold Polar Maritime airmass will be moving into from the west. This is associated with weak warm advection ahead of a well defined cold front that will be moving southwards across Scotland by late Sat morning. This front marks the leading edge of a surge of Arctic air, originating over Greenland and points further north.


During Saturday afternoon/evening the cold front/cold occlusion will race SSE across the whole of the UK, clearing the south coast during the early hours of Sunday morning. Thereafter, a bitterly cold Arctic airmass (slowly becoming modified by the relatively mild SSTs to the north-west of the UK) will affect all areas. This will bring occasional snow showers to the south and east of the UK, but frequent and heavy snow and hail showers to northern and western areas (especially those in the Warning area). The snow showers will become increasingly confined to N Ireland, NW England and N and W Scotland by Sunday night.
 

Forecast:
A well defined cold front/cold occlusion will surge southwards across the forecast area during Saturday afternoon/evening. This will bring a relatively narrow band of heavy rain, sleet and snow to most places. Snow is most likely across eastern Scotland, NE England, the higher parts of NW England, and Cent and E parts of England to the south of the Pennines. Further west and north, there is a chance of rain for a time along the front (especially close to western coastal areas) before the very cold Arctic airmass undercuts the precipitation band. A low risk of freezing rain across the high ground in Wales and also across the Midlands and Cent S England if road surfaces are below 0C in the evening (the potential for this dangerous hazard will be monitored closely). Additionally, isolated lightning strikes may accompany the frontal passage.
2-4 cm of snow accumulation is likely in many parts of the forecast area in 2-3 hours as the cold front goes through. Lower accumulations are expected in west Wales and NW England and close to western coasts. Over the higher ground and in parts of eastern England, 3-7cm of snow is possible. Turning VERY ICY after the cold front has cleared.

On Sunday, occasional snow showers across the E Midlands and NE England may produce a further 1-2cm accumulation. The West Midlands, S Wales and E Scotland may have 1-4cm in slightly more frequent snow showers. Across the Warning area, snow/hail showers will be heavy and frequent until Monday morning. 5-10cm of snow may accumulate in many areas with up to 10-20cm over the high ground and where snow showers train echo. The snow may drift in fresh to strong NW’ly winds.
 
Issued by MCD for UKww, 0030Z 19/12/2009.



Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 19, 2009, 11:23:06 am
I've got my eye on this band of ppt coming south today.  So far i've had no snow at all, but this band looks to be the one to finally deliver me some wintry goods here in the west midlands (hopefully!)  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 19, 2009, 01:47:09 pm
Looks like saturdays weather front has hit northern ireland now - is it snowing for you guys?

I've had my first few flakes of snow earlier for this season, as the wind has swung round so it's blowing through the cheshire gap http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070102105312AAC9jts - fingers crossed for later on!  There seems to be (atm) lots of beefy showers behind the main weather front which if they keep their intensity have some potential for a snowy day for me tomorrow  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 19, 2009, 03:26:04 pm
There's been thundersnow in Scotland today

The warm front is just rain here but the back edge will turn to snow later, then the showers come in on the NW wind with hail, snow, and possibly even thunder in places. Should be plenty of snow showers later tonight and Sun...if the Met Office is correct, and so far they have been doing a great job with the snow forecasts for Britain. Sun could be a nasty day with blizzards in places. I'm expecting to see some cbs on Sun with gust fronts dropping snow showers....might be a good day for the camera, if your fingers can stand it  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 19, 2009, 03:36:04 pm
TORRO convective forecast out for mainland Britain, chance of tornadoes and lightning....

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 19, 2009, 03:48:50 pm
if the Met Office is correct, and so far they have been doing a great job with the snow forecasts for Britain.

You're right here Martin, they have been pretty much spot on so far this season regards the current cold spell...


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on December 19, 2009, 03:57:32 pm
Finally you've got there some snow too!  :)

Here in Ukraine the winter becomes wonderful indeed! Today in Poltava it is -10C, snowing since early morning, 18cm of snow on the ground. Compare: southern & eastern regions of Ukraine have up to 30...60cm of snow. Several large cities (e.g. Odessa, Lugansk) have the road traffic blocked, as well as some of main highways were particularly blocked during last 2 nights. Poltava doesn't have it all so serious, the main streets today were full of snow but still possible to drive, although minor streets (like one where I live) weren't cleaned enough good, so only pedestrians can pass without a fear to stuck in the snow.
Now waiting for a few more snowfalls during Sun-Mon.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 19, 2009, 04:25:15 pm
Great to hear it Roman!, enjoyed your report  :)

There is now snow mixed in with that rain here in Maghera, looking good for later.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 19, 2009, 04:33:21 pm
Heavy snow here now!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 19, 2009, 04:34:25 pm
Wow, you have some proper winter weather Roman - i'm jealous!

Good to hear it's getting a bit more wintry for you Martin!  You can really see on the rainfall radar on the met office how that polar front splits into the distinct warm and cold sectors over Northern Ireland.  Met office are updating their weather advisories / warnings very rapidly this afternoon!  I should be seeing snow proper in the next couple of 4 hours or so...  ;D


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: jjb on December 19, 2009, 05:51:54 pm
How deep martin i have none here at the moment?


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on December 19, 2009, 05:53:10 pm
Sounds nice Roman feel free to post some pics would love to see them :)  No snow here yet but its not far away judging by latest radar


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 19, 2009, 06:05:35 pm
Jonathan, no depth at all because it isn't cold enough for it to settle yet, it has stopped now but further showers should move in tonight when the temp drops so I expect (hope) it will stay on the ground then.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 19, 2009, 06:20:50 pm
18Z Update

Atlantic Situation remains firmly blocked with large upper and surface anticylones over Greenland and NW Atlantic.  Cold front is surging south over the UK with arctic airmass moving south - though this will be modified over the next 48 hrs by convection and its assoc latent heat and SSTs

Cold front /occlusion is now moving south, the 12Z GFS, NAE & HIRLAM have a fair representation of the front.  Front is classic rearward sloping feature with cold high density hair surging into the rear of the feature.  Ahead of it - Higher WBPT is being advected in to form a kind of Pseudo warm sector.   Very cold air in the SE this evening (-5 to -7 in places) Milder air is now present on western coasts.

As the front comes south it remains a messy affair - Rain, Sleet and Snow.  Mostly Rain/Sleet in Coastal NW England, Lowland Wales and SW England, (largely within the 4C WBPT isotherm....... progressively more wintry as you move east away from this.  Midlands into Eastern England mostly Snow, though initial brief period of sleet, and again in the SE, largely Snow.  Again some heavy snow likely as the front comes SE across the Midlands towards the NW Home COunties. (best forcing is towards the east)

1-3cm in the West Midlands and CS England as the front clears, 3-6cm further east, and isolated more on the Chilterns where a second trough comes SE during early Sunday Morning.

Very cold tonight in the Snowfields (Tulloch Bridge already -8C) and this the theme for the next few nights.

Sunday sees a lot of snow showers across Scotland and N Ireland . Need to watch the very cold clusters nr 65N 3W where a Polar Low may form and sink S.  Significant risk of heavy snow and large accumulations across  NE N Ireland, SW Scotland and into N England.

Question Marks remain into next week-- I will discuss these tomorrow

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society
Southbourne, Dorset, 1M ASL.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 19, 2009, 10:37:32 pm
Plenty of heavy snow falling here - fantastic!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 19, 2009, 11:39:25 pm
(http://i46.tinypic.com/o6go3r.png)

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-12-19 23:29:00
Valid: 2009-12-19 23:00:00 - 2009-12-20 22:59:00

Regions Affected
Northern Ireland, north Wales, Northwest England, western Ireland and most of Scotland (excluding the far east, which is included in the WATCH, along with the remainder of the United Kingdom)

Synopsis

A complex area of LOW pressure situated over northern United Kingdom will dominate the weather during Sunday. Behind a cold front sinking southeastwards during the early hours, exiting into France by dawn, a cold and unstable Arctic airmass is advected southwards across the whole of the British Isles.

Showers will develop, due to the large temperature differences between the upper atmosphere and the sea surface - these mainly affecting those areas exposed to the gusty northwesterly winds (thus northern and western areas). The showers will be frequent, forming into bands (or troughs) at times, and providing significant snowfall in places due to the cold airmass. Electrical activity seems possible, and hence thundersnow is a strong possibility.

There is a chance for a weak funnel or waterspout to develop. Showers will continue to affect the same areas well into the night.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on December 19, 2009, 11:48:05 pm
Snowing heavily here too, nice covering already :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 20, 2009, 03:18:27 am
Heavy snow falling here for hours and still going - great to see it. Snow showers ranging from gentle flurries to horizontal blizzards.



Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on December 20, 2009, 08:53:02 am
Wow, you have some proper winter weather Roman - i'm jealous!
Sounds nice Roman feel free to post some pics would love to see them :) 
Now I feel I need post here a nice set of photos - I will do so as soon as possible!  ;)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 20, 2009, 11:15:44 am
The place is beautiful here today, a few inches of good snow, place looks like a Winter wonder land.  :)

Thundersnow near N coast.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: jjb on December 20, 2009, 12:13:08 pm
Same here Martin every where has a good 3" cover  the roads where tricky earlier the main ones a are now cleared look forward to the images you take today.

jonathan.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 20, 2009, 12:50:06 pm
Change that to 6" here now, we tried to drive out but the car could barely make it so we had to retreat home bringing an end to my plan for snow images today which is a shame. Got a few snaps from the garden though. Some convection here and mammatus, more snow showers to come. Watch out for the Moon, Jupiter, Mercury conjunction after sunset and for aurora later.

Hope you get some shots Jonathan.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 20, 2009, 12:56:14 pm
FORECAST FOR Monday 21st-Sunday 27th December 2009

ISSUED 20th December 1200Z

SPECIAL NOTE/WARNING REGARDING POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE XMAS PERIOD

There is likely to be significant snow at times in the north this week and parts of the Midlands and Wales too, drifting at times in strong winds, along with icy roads, severe frosts & freezing fog patches. Travelling conditions are likely to be difficult and possibly dangerous at times. If in doubt about your travel then postpone or cancel it. Listen to local weather updates on the radio for up to date information, road closures etc. 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEEKLY SUMMARY   
A complicated week to come weatherwise but one that will potentially wintry for many areas but more especially in the north and central parts of the UK. However Xmas Day and the 26th look like a weak ridge may affect most parts bringing more settled conditions but the risk of freezing fog and severe frosts in places. The SW and far south should escape the majority of the wintry weather however this week. By Saturday & Sunday, more unsettled wet and windy weather may be pushing in from the south west, bringing wintry conditions to some parts again. 

Monday 21st looks likely to see low pressure over Scotland and a breezy westerly flow to the south of it. An early frost in places with extensive icy patches on roads, some mist and low cloud patches about, locally freezing, slow to clear in places.Wintry showers running into the NW and north, heavy in places with further accumulations, esp over hills with local drifting. Cloud with patchy rain or sleet, with some snow, mostly on the SW moors and Downs, extending up from the SW and far south later as low pressure fronts brush these areas with low pressure moving across N France later on. Frost & icy patches reforming by evening in the north though too much cloud about elsewhere for temperatures to dip very much. Temperatures should stay well below average at -1 to +2C in most parts and only -2C in the Highlands but perhaps up to 3-6C in the far south and SW.

Tuesday 22nd will probably see the low pressure move away from the SE but remain across most of the Uk, with a centre over S Scotland, about 978mb. A reasonably clear night for the north and some central parts too with a slight-moderate frost likely, icy patches and some freezing mist patches about. The frost severe locally, especially in prone valleys in the north and NE. Cloudy and murky with mainly light showery rain or sleet still in the SE at first. Wintry showers still affecting the west and all the NW and far north of Scotland, heavy at times, further accumulations are likely in places.  Another sharp frost setting in by dusk in central and northern inland parts of the UK with icy patches. Temperatures generally staying well below average at 0 to +2C but only -3C in the Highlands though maybe up to 3-4C in the far south and Wales and 4-7C in the SW.

Wednesday 23rd looks to see a slacker area of presure across most parts as the now filling low sinks ESE to the central North Sea. Showers continuing still overnight and by day in the north and north west, especially near NW coasts of the UK, including Wales, still heavy and wintry at times with more snow accumulating, esp over hills but the south and east staying rather drier with more in the way of sunshine after an early frosty start with icy patches about. By evening an area of showery rain with some hill sleet & snow seems likely to work in the SW.Temperatures feeling raw, a cold 2-5C generally though maybe 6-7C in the far west and SW.   

Xmas Eve, Thursday 24th looks likely to see a weak high over Scotland as low pressure later affects the far SW and south. A widespread slight to moderate frost at first away from western coasts with icy patches and freezing fog patches about. A few wintry showers continuing overnight in the far NW with some further accumulations locally here. A very cold start in Scotland with temperatures as low as -10 to -5C in the glens and again by evening another moderate to severe frost developing across the north away from coasts and some freezing mist & fog patches again too. By day in the SW a mix of rain, sleet and some upland snow pushing slowly NE across other southern counties, mainly sleet but equally both rain and snow are possible giving local accumulations of 2-10cm.  Another cold day, max temperatures about 0 to 2C but maybe 3-6C in the far west and SW, only -5C across the Highlands.   

Xmas Day, Friday 25th seems on the whole to see a ridge of high pressure over most parts with the high centred west of Iceland. A widespread early moderate frost with localised freezing fog patches and icy patches too. Weak sunshine by day as the freezing fog or mist slowly clears but in prone spots it may last all day. A few wintry flurries near eastern coasts still. Freezing fog and mist patches returning to many inland areas by evening but as low pressure develops north of Scotland fronts will sink south here bringing cloud and rain, sleet or snow in by late afternoon or early evening, reaching as far south as Northern England by midnight. There may well be local accumulations of snow almost anywhere but more especially over hills. Temperatures generally a cold -1 to 2C for most though up to 4-6C around some coasts and the far NW and SW but only -3 to -1C over the Highlands & where freezing fog does not clear.   

Boxing Day, Saturday 26th and Sunday 27th are rather uncertain at present; it seems possible that a strong south easterly flow will become established as quite a deep area of low pressure over to the west of Ireland develops by Sunday. A lot of cloud and some outbreaks of showery rain, sleet and snow seem likely to move into the far west and SW by later on Saturday, with some accumulations likely in places, especially over the high ground with drifting. Sunday may see the precipitation more further east and NE generally. Maybe the best of any drier weather with sunshine in the far east and NE where the ridge hangs on longest but some freezing mist or fog patches may linger here initially. There may be SE'ly gales in the exposed west and SW later. Temperatures over the weekend by day will likely be well below average for most areas on both Saturday & Sunday at -1 to 2C , possibly only -5C in the Highlands and where any fog doesn't clear but more like 4-7C in the far west & far SW and NW and western exposed coasts.   

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK
*Some freezing fog patches, mist and low cloud inland through the week & weekend more esp in the north

*Some NE'ly gales in the east Xmas Day possibly & SE'ly gales with gusts to 60mph, esp in coastal & exposed western areas by Sunday

*Risk of moderate snow in places, esp in the NW & north and initially in the week higher ground in the south & perhaps more generally later on in the north west, the Midlands and some western and southern high ground

*Moderate- Severe frosts overnight during much of the week, with icy patches at times esp where there's a lot of surface snow and water

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate becoming moderate-poor by Friday

Dave Wiseman
UKww Executive/C & M Manager/Warnings team


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on December 20, 2009, 05:41:25 pm
Today in the afternoon it started to snow here again, so the amount of snow on the ground reached 22cm (9"). But now it has turned into freezing rain, the temperature quickly rises towards zero. That's a crazy weather... I cannot imagine what will be on the roads tomorrow: layer of ice over a slightly melted layer of snow may get again frozen in a day or two ahead. 

I've uploded some photos from last week here (http://astrophotoweather.smfforfree4.com/index.php/topic,2038.new.html).


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 20, 2009, 07:06:40 pm
I am so gutted, I was out after sunset taking images of the snow and crescent Moon when my camera malfunctioned in a serious way. Now it won't work at all, I didn't even do anything to it either. That's me out of action now for quite some time, I'm very disappointed by this coming up to Christmas  :(

I don't have it covered either.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on December 20, 2009, 08:19:20 pm
Ah Martin sorry to hear that, have you got some sort of a backup camera although I know it probably would never replace your first choice.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on December 20, 2009, 10:22:12 pm
Large band of snow about to hit the north coast of Ireland!!  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 20, 2009, 11:02:48 pm
Snowing here at the moment.

Thanks Paul, I do have a back up, a Fujifilm S5600 but it's like a toy in comparison to the first. Only a 32mm F/3.2 lens with 200mm zoom.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 21, 2009, 04:11:36 am
For Mon

(http://i50.tinypic.com/33vyj2p.png)

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-12-20 23:24:00
Valid: 2009-12-20 23:00:00 - 2009-12-21 22:59:00

Regions Affected
Northern Ireland, Scotland, northwest Wales, northern England and western Ireland (the whole of the United Kingdom is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

A complex area of LOW pressure situated over the United Kingdom will dominate the weather during Monday. A cold and unstable Arctic airmass is present over the whole of the British Isles for the entire duration of this forecast period, with the exception of the extreme southeast where some slightly milder air may move in later in the forecast period due to a developing area of LOW pressure there.

Showers will develop, due to the large temperature differences between the upper atmosphere and the sea surface - these mainly affecting those areas exposed to the gusty northwesterly winds (thus northern and western areas). The showers will be frequent, forming into bands (or troughs) at times, and providing significant snowfall in places due to the cold airmass. Electrical activity seems possible, and hence thundersnow is a strong possibility.

There is a chance for a weak funnel or waterspout to develop. During the evening a warm front approaches the far southeast, introducing some slightly milder air. There is a good deal of uncertainty between the models even at this short timeframe as to the exact path of the warm front. Nevertheless, showers will continue to affect western and northern coastal areas well into the night, though decreasing significantly in coverage.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 21, 2009, 03:22:55 pm
Fascinating series of updates over the past couple of days guys, i've enjoying catching up reading them.

Well here in the west midlands we finally got our dose of snow on saturday night, not much, not much at all admitedly - a whole 2cm!  :o  Needless to say the walk back from the pub in it on saturday night was hilarious - all but the main roads had (and still do have) the snow, which rapidly froze to ice covering them.  The result - the vast majority of people think the way to drive around is in 1st gear with the highest revs possible, the result lots of wheelspins and everyone stuck and skidding.  Snce then the weather has barely rose above freezing in the day and as a result the covering hasn't melted at all.  Everywhere is very slippy!

It would be nice if here we manage a bit more of a covering, but i'm not holding my breath, the wind just isn't in the right direction for us and the showers don't come far enough inland.  More snow or not i'm enjoying this weather!  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Tyler on December 21, 2009, 06:06:55 pm
A Historical Blizzard is about to unfold here in Nebraska. A 991mb low is forecasted to move just to the east of here and create havoc.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs096hr_sfc_mslp.gif

Right now the Euro, Canadian and GFS are all in agreement with the track through NW Missouri. First precip would start off as freezing rain accumulating 1-1.5" and then changing to snow in the convective nature with thundersnow very possible putting 15-20" of snow on top of that inch or inch and a half of ice. Not only in the apocalyptic precip totals but that on the backside of that low winds will be nearly 65kts at 850mb!!!!!! probably something like 40kts sustained at the surface with gusts up to 60kts. This would create insane blowing and drifting snow, snap powerlines and create impossible travel conditions for nearly a week.  Many will be left without power over the holidays and many (dumb) people will get stranded while traveling for the holiday. Lets just hope that people listen to the Meteorologists about this storm, as it WILL be deadly. I've been talking to my friends about their travels and making sure they know just how dangerous this storm may be.

This map basically shows the end of the world for Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_108m.gif

Using 10 to 1 or 12 to 1 liquid to snow ratios, if all that liquid fell as snow we'd be looking at more than 2 feet of snow! It will be interesting to see how much of it falls as ice, the less the better in this case, since Ice is much more damaging than snow. Not out of the question to see 10 to 15 foot snow drifts with this type of snow!! Needless to say this will be a historical storm!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 21, 2009, 10:08:52 pm
Hey Tyler, just read all the information you supplied as well as what's on Mike's page and it looks like you are in for a serious storm event!. This will be nasty, I hope you get some cool images but take care when your'e out in those conditions. Will be following events closely  to see how it pans out. No doubt it will be on the news over here if it comes to pass...and by the looks of things it will  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on December 22, 2009, 08:14:18 am
The recent active Mediterranean cyclone which passed across Ukraine on Sun-Mon wasn't so awful as I have expected. Maybe I've already said, than Sunday began with partly cloudy weather and -17C, later it started to snow, the snow turned into freezing rain and further simply rain while the temperature had reached +2C at midnight. During all evening of Sunday the pressure was quickly dropping with rate 3...4 mb/3hr but next, during all Monday morning it was rapidly rising with even the bigger rate (4...5 mb/3hr). The changes in weather were again evident - the sky had totally cleared after 8AM, and the temperature dropped to -14C on Monday afternoon. I was very glad to see that the snow covering wasn't destructed with freezing rain, as it has quickly frozen back on next morning.

Last night it was partly cloudy here with -15C, but there is another warming on its way, with a few rainy days and possible +9C next Sunday.  :-\

P.S. I forgot to add, that it was a very fun job to restore the normal work of my meteostation after that freezing rainfall, when I have spent 1.5 hours for melting all of the frozen equipment with 2 buckets of hot water and then readjusting it. :P


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on December 22, 2009, 08:54:18 am
I'm becoming a bit frightened with this winter...  :-\

For example, Ivano-Frankivsk (western Ukraine) had minimum -26C on Monday (along with a good amount of snow I guess) ...and the same area will get +17C on Friday. Isn't it ridiculois?! I do not talk about Crimea, where +10...+17C in December is very rare but sometimes happens, but the other regions of Ukraine have temperature deviations from normal within -20...+10 degrees!

I can tell more detailed about Poltava. Average temperatures of this week are within -4...+3C, minima near -8...-3C and maxima near +2...+8C (based on statistics for 2005-2008). What do we have now (mostly -10...-15C, min -23C) I can describe as very cold weather, the deviations of average daily temperature ranging between -7...-19 degrees. If the forecast is correct, and it will be +5...+9C on next weekend, the deviations will be again significant, but in another direction - circa +3...+9 degrees (from normal).
Or, speaking about monthly averages... The coldest months of last 4 years were Jan'06 (-7.5C), Feb'06 (-6.2C) and Jan'08 (-3.9C). This December average currently is -4.5C, and it will be probably not more than -3.0C, even if there'll be a warming ahead. So I can 99% guarantee that this December is the coldest one.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 22, 2009, 09:50:15 am
Hey Tyler, that certainly is rather crazy weather!  Wrap up warm and stay safe in it!  It is certainly becoming a 'December to Remember' for us this year. 

Those temperature swings are bonkers I have to say Roman.  I have a feeling we'll see more weather like that before this seasons winter is out.

I've woken up this morning to freezing fog, all the iced snowy remnants are still here, however, for me, with no foreseeable snow predicted...


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 22, 2009, 11:25:43 am
Observed bright blue flash of lightning last night around 03.30 from a distant, and probable thundersnow event, far away to the NW.

Roman, those are crazy temps you are getting!

There might be a slight chance of a white Christmas for some in the UK...models are showing positive signs, although it's on a knife edge.  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 22, 2009, 12:25:04 pm
Recent lightning N and E of Lough Neagh


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 22, 2009, 06:42:34 pm
For those in N. Ireland be very careful on the roads Tues/Wed. Wet sleet/snow is falling followed by overnight temps between -4 and -6 deg C, this will cause wide spread ice so untreated roads will be like glass - deadly stuff!.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 23, 2009, 11:02:55 am
It's like that round here aswell Martin.  Joe Bastardi has an interesting blog update where he links particulate matter in the polar atmosphere from the recent northern hemisphere volcanic eruptions causing warming high in the atmosphere in the arctic.  Thermodynamics kicks in and there's a consequent cooling in these regions at lower levels in the atmosphere, hence all this cold air spilling down this winter. 

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

He reckons in western europe we're in for a spell of milder weather, but there will be more cold excursions like this again in mid and late winter.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: JohnC on December 24, 2009, 12:53:36 pm
A large bus went off the road in Cornwall and the police vehicle attending also hit the same patch of black ice and slid down the embankment and hit the bus already on its side at the bottom.Two dead, 47 injured.

http://www.nowpublic.com/world/cornwall-coach-crash-black-ice-2-women-killed-47-injured


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 24, 2009, 01:33:54 pm
That's terrible John!

It's a beautiful scene here today with clear blue skies, bright sun, ice and snow with freezing fog below slieve gallion and a nice sundog above - a festive white winter wonderland  :)

Temps will dip to -8 tonight


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 24, 2009, 04:23:11 pm
Great circumzenithal arc visible over Maghera before sunset this afternoon - a rare sight this year.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 24, 2009, 08:38:10 pm
12Z Update Christmas Eve

North Atlantic Pressure upper level flow remains essentially dominated by a very low latitude Jet and high pressure over Polar Regions.  Whilst the airmass has become less cold over the last 24hrs, its expected to remain cold enough inland for snow across the north through the Christmas weekend.  Into next week strong warm advection in the western Atlantic and strong cold advection over the NE Atlantic forcing a trough extension and a renewed spell of cold weather across the UK.

Right now the legacy a last nights trough is causing snow over SE Scotland and the persistent line of showers which has generated over 25mm in parts of Central Southern England remains slow moving.  A new frontal low is moving into Western France with the Jersey Radar now confirming echoes over N France.  These are set to just clip the SE of England and bring Snow to NE France, Belgium and the Neterlands tonight.

Showers over SE Scotland are falling as snow inland and have given several new cms of snow this morning.  The cold over the Snowcovered Highlands and the glens remains firmly locked in place with the airmass substantially warmer aloft than at the surface over these parts (-11 to -15C still this morning the result of a sharp nr surface inversion)

It keeps raining across CS England, this line running from Lyme Bay to West London and only moving only slowly East through the rest of today.   There has been a trend to run the frontal low coming into NE France further NW and this is reflected in the Precip Probs from the Ensemble which indicate a better than 50% chance of some precip in the SE later this for a time.  Snow likely in the heavier precipitation over Belgium and the Netherlands

Christmas Day is largely dry over most parts with a ridge of High PRessure in charge albeit a weak one. A few showers continuing over the Grampians and then focus turns to N Ireland and SW Scotland, with the low currently to the west of IReland moving east. Rain coming into Ireland later tomorrow and turning to snow over the mountains of N Ireland and perhaps more generally at lower levels in any heavier precip.  Of greater concern is the spread of the precip into SW Scotland tomorrow evening and night.  The precip occuring as night falls and cold air largely in place expected to see more widespread snow.  NAE has 6cm of snow over the Forth/Clyde Valley during tomorrow evening.  This needs watching as could see heavier falls than presently indicated. Over the weekend we see colder air remain in place in the North and east but less cold in the South and West.

Into next week and a large trough extension over the NE Atlantic is the major problem with rain turning to snow as increasingly cold air undercuts.  The 00Z UKMO GM and 00Z GFS at odds with their ensembles in taking the frontal precip too far north, prefer the 06Z GFS,  This situation needs watching very carefully.

More over the weekend

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society
Southbourne, Dorset, 1M ASL.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on December 24, 2009, 10:22:25 pm
Absolutely beautiful weather! I really do love it, all the trees are white with frost. Its a lovely Christmas scene outside. We have freezing fog here again and my thermometer is currently saying -10! Brrrrrrr!!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 25, 2009, 03:49:08 am
It is fantastic isn't it - that's about 7 days now with snow and ice on the ground - freezing fog here and outside temps are the coldest I've felt this year and probably similar to what you're getting. Hopefully more snow soon - we have been very lucky with all this festive weather - bring it on  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on December 25, 2009, 03:38:29 pm
Its snowing again!  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Tyler on December 25, 2009, 05:11:47 pm
Got about 10" already though I haven't measured, it might be impossible with all the drifting. Seen a 7 ft drift in my neighbors backyard. 1/3 of all hwys in E Nebraska are closed. Reports of cars stranded on the interstate in town! Roads around here are impassible with 3 foot drifts common on the roads. Hopefully images soon


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 25, 2009, 08:05:18 pm
Wow, that sounds a bit more than we have over here Tyler!

The 'warm air' is back over me here in the midlands, only a few patches of snow remaining.  Just about to get hit by rain so last remaining snow will be long gone by morning.  I look forward to the next cold snap that affects us!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 26, 2009, 01:18:34 am
Still a winter wonderland today and it snowed for a quite a while during the evening, didn't take any images this time though. There's another cold spell coming soon.

Tyler, seen the US storm on the news here, looks mental, some cool images from Mike as well. - Keep us informed on how things are developing, good luck.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on December 26, 2009, 09:57:21 am
Wet sleet/snow is falling followed by overnight temps between -4 and -6 deg C, this will cause wide spread ice so untreated roads will be like glass - deadly stuff!.
Here we had more than a week of such horrible road conditions...

AND NOW IT'S MELTING... The temperature was near +1...+2C in the recent days, today it is +5C. It is going to be a powerful thaw (no sufficient frosts are forecasted in next 2 weeks!).  :o The snow depth is already ~10cm, not 20cm as it was in a week ago, the roads have become a mix of water & melting ice, the sky is completely overcast, raining last night, humidity 90...100%, dense fog for 3 days in a row, with visibility sometimes as poor as 100...150m.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 26, 2009, 10:48:10 am
There's another cold spell coming soon.

Yeah, we (over here in UK & Ireland) have a mild spell for a week or so then it goes COLD again!  Check out Joe Bastardis blog >>> http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather - I have to say I find him spot on in his forecasts - certainly (IMO) alot more accurate than the met office in their longer term predictions. 

I know it might not be to everyones tastes, but I quite like this 'proper' winter weather that we are getting! :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 26, 2009, 03:23:06 pm
Complete white-out up the Glen shane Pass this afternoon with heavy snow falling, we had to pull over because the visbility was that bad!. It's snowing in Maghera now.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on December 26, 2009, 05:12:44 pm
Just raining onto frozen ground here. Last night enough wet snow to cover the ground in 1/4" of granular ice, it took me 15 mins to get into my car this morning.

Don't mind cold but want it dry & the air transparent, not the consistency of cream of chicken soup (cold).


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 26, 2009, 11:22:50 pm
A few shots from today taken in  very difficult conditions....

http://www.nightskyhunter.com/Sky%20Events%20Now.html


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 27, 2009, 02:08:08 am
Many NI homes without water due to the freezing temps, BBC link...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8431070.stm


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Tyler on December 27, 2009, 02:14:38 am
Very nice photos Martin! looks like you had some heavy snow with some pretty strong winds there. Our storm was okay, it was pretty anticlimactic. Ended up with about 13" here NW of here got 18" Winds were quite unimpressive however, gusts probably only peaked at 45mph. Right now I'm very unmotivated to go out and try to get pictures, because it's really not all that crazy, I mean there are some really big drifts, just not as impressive as I was hoping I guess. Maybe when we get a blue sky I'll have a little more motivation, hopefully we'll get some nice sun dogs and a CZA when the clouds do finally leave. 


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 27, 2009, 03:41:03 am
Thanks very much Tyler and a Merry Christmas to you and your family!

Sounds like great potential for atmospherc optics at the back of that system with the all the ice crystals in the air, a bright CZA would be a real treat. I hope you get rewarded with something cool. Best of luck!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on December 27, 2009, 09:50:59 am
Quote
Many NI homes without water due to the freezing temps
Partially true .... actually the problem is that pipes cracked by the frost are now thawing, letting out water & letting in air. Supply here is about 50% H20, 49% air & 1% chlorine.

Edit: 1135 UT, water now cut off completely.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 27, 2009, 11:54:45 am
Great series of pictures Martin!  It's bad news about all the burst water pipes.

Here in the Midlands i've got my eyes to to the south for a band of ppt moving north that the forecast is saying will be snow over us for tuesday, quite easily  potentially the biggest snowfall event we (in the midlands) will have so far this season.  The northerly wind needs to kick in topside of this weather system for it to drop snow on us, else it'll be rain.  However met office has a weather warning out for the event, and I have to say their 'nowcasting' of wintry weather warnings this season have been pretty much spot on when they've predicted them - so unless they downgrade it between now and then i'm keeping optimistic!

It's typical though, i've arranged to go up to my parents in the Staffordshire Moorlands for a couple of days from monday thru wednesday, when I told Fiona (the mrs) this morning that it may be a good idea just to take with us a few extra changes of clothes with us, just incase, she wasn't impressed!   We have a Mazda MX5, which is great for nipping around with the roof down in the summer, but this weather is not the best!  However my brother is up there atm and has a 4x4 truck and has already said we'll have to go offroading (i'm the only one daft enough to help dig him out when he gets stuck!) - I always take the camera with me when we go, just so I can record him stuck  :P - however i'll be sure to record some snowy scenes as they (parents) live out in the hills!

Fingers crossed it should be fun!  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: jjb on December 27, 2009, 04:36:17 pm
You are getting more snow than me Martin and we are only 28 miles apart it was raining here when you where on the glenshane pass! kooks like tonight is going to be a cold one i reckon the next big fall of snow will be soon there is a marked drop in the temp here today lovely clear sky this afternoon.


jonathan


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on December 27, 2009, 05:07:42 pm
Have fun.... I had a few days slithering & groping my way round the Derbyshire side of the Peak District before Xmas. Did not enjoy.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: rjgjr on December 27, 2009, 05:40:45 pm
So sorry to hear about all the weather problems but that sounds like a traditional Christmas except for the extremely cold temperatures. Very nasty (weatherwise) photos! Christmas Day in Southern California was sunny and 84 degrees F. I even got sunburnt while outside playing with my nieces and nephews. Heading back to rainy Oregon on Wednesday. I'll have some photos to post when I get back. Happy Holidays!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 27, 2009, 07:04:31 pm
The road on our estate this afternoon was deadly. worst I've ever seen it. Freezing rain (that's rare in this country) fell on the ice and I got stuck on the road, wheels went around but nothing happened with the car blocking the road, two other cars stuck on the same section so it took 45 min's of scraping ice with a spade to get out, car is parked in someone elses driveway now. You couldn't even stand up, I had to pull myself along using the car for support. Quite an adventure that turned out to be. The neighbours done a great job helping out.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on December 27, 2009, 08:15:39 pm
Yep atrocious conditions out there with black ice everywhere very bad driving conditions and the footpaths are like skating rinks. Be safe everyone.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on December 28, 2009, 05:43:08 am
Waiting for some sunny photos Richard  :)

Martin, I 've seen the photoreport on your website, it looks like a bit nasty weather indeed


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on December 28, 2009, 08:05:34 am
More problems .... 5 hours clear sky last night, first for a long while, then freezing fog spread back in, sky back to the consistency of luminous chicken soup


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 28, 2009, 11:24:06 am
Black ice has been pretty common here for a while now, I ended up flat on my back on boxing day night.

My eyes are turned to the south now for the next batch of weather coming in.  There's huge discrepancies in the various forecast models as to how this materialises - nobody is really commiting themselves to much detail at this point either.  It's frustrating for me, because as I said earlier i'm going to my parents today for a couple of days - getting there will be the easy bit, however if the snow and snow amounts materialise getting back home could be the tricky bit...

In my part of the world the local councils have made big cutbacks regards gritting the roads - stockpiles of rock salt are much lower this year and they're just treating the main arterial routes.  This is fine if you're passing through the region on the motorway network or the major A-roads, but getting around local roads has been horrendous - just black ice as Martin has said.  Whilst the west midlands has no huge hills, the whole area is 'undulating' which means this black ice is problematic for transport.

Hmmm, met office just updated their weather warning - they're predicting from 15-25+cm of snow for my area from tomorrow onwards... 

Me thinks me is going to give mother a phone - not go up today, see what the weather is like tomorrow morning and make a decision from there.  If its rain and sleet then go up to see her, if snow sit at home, sit it out and enjoy...  Now, just to phone mother...  :-\


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 28, 2009, 01:14:07 pm
UKww Weather Warning/Watch – Heavy snow & blizzards

Valid from: 0000z Tuesday 29th-0000z Thursday 31st December 2009

Areas affected: Warning - Wales, north of the M4, West & South Midlands; Watch - Rest of Wales, Midlands, southern areas of N England.


General evolution: Cold to very cold air remains in place over much of the UK. Atlantic low centred SW of Ireland, 974mb at 00z Tuesday, moves east to become slow-moving, 984mb, over the English Channel by 00z Thursday. This introduces a SE airflow over the southern UK, backing E and then NE at the end of the forecast period.  Associated fronts push northwards from the Bay of Biscay, these becoming slow-moving over central and southern areas.

Forecast: As the fronts push northwards on Tuesday morning they introduce rainfall accompanied by relatively mild air, with temperatures in S Cornwall nudging double figures later. However, as the rain moves slowly northwards it runs into the colder air still in place over much of the UK and eventually the fronts stall over Wales and the Midlands. Along and adjacent to the boundary between the cold and warmer air, the rain will turn to sleet and snow, this prolonged through the rest of the forecast period. Rain and sleet are most likely to occur at lower levels especially in coastal areas, but snow cannot be ruled out either as there is a significant degree of uncertainty regarding precipitation-type. Where snow settles on the lower ground, 5-15 cm looks likely, but on higher ground such as the Cambrian Mountains, a very heavy fall in excess of 30cm is more confidently expected and with strong SE winds there will be blizzard conditions and the snow will drift significantly with deep drifts of 2m or more.


Such conditions will cause severe disruption to occur, making high-level routes impassable, and driving conditions on lower-level routes may become difficult and hazardous at times. The best advice is to check up-to-date traffic information before starting out on journeys and to avoid mountain roads. If travelling, take plenty of warm clothing, a torch and spare batteries, a snow shovel and hot drinks in case you get caught out. For householders, especially in upland areas, it also makes sense to be prepared against power outages which can sometimes occur during blizzards.

These adverse conditions will continue beyond the end of the forecast period, but owing to uncertainties in the forecast models regarding extent and type of precipitation, we will be updating once a clearer picture becomes evident.


For checking out where there is rain, sleet or snow the following link may be useful:


Met Office Rainfall Radar: HERE
UKww will monitor this Warning and update it if necessary.

Issued by JSM for UKww, 1200Z 28/12/2009



Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 28, 2009, 05:47:55 pm
Awesome Winter scenes here last night and today with a widespread ice event in the Maghera area. Deep frozen snow and ice in the fields, solid ice on the roads, hoar frost, icycles on the tree branches, frozen water drops hanging from road signs, freezing fog, stunning complete lunar fogbow with SN arcs and now a major ice halo around the Moon, -7 last night and stayed below zero all day!. Lough Fea has frozen solid. You can jump up and down in the frozen puddles here without a single protesting crack, and that's during the middle of the day. Car is still stuck and not going anywhere fast.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on December 28, 2009, 07:38:35 pm
Yeah, not as bad here but it was below zero all day, very unusual this close to the coast. Fog/mist persisted too, there was a slight tendency to clearance as the frontal cloud came in & the Sun was visible at times but the sky remained white/grey. We didn't get the freezing rain shower yesterday (it fell as proper rain during the day when the temp was above freezing) but there's lots of hoar frost. Major road gritting was patchy this morning ...

... Gonna be lots of problems with burst pipes in holiday homes, one of my neighbours friends has a (new) holiday apartment which has been completely ruined by a burst pipe & the emergency plumber is overwhelmed ... Good business I suppose especially at Bank Holiday rate!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 28, 2009, 09:01:38 pm
That's a good positive angle of things Brian, at least it will provide some business..nice one.

Here's a short vid from today showing the ice

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaTlXmwrgf0

Still want to get to Lough Fea but no chance of that, we just had a shower of fine snow/possibe freezing rain and our estate is like glass with 1 - 2" of ice, it's unbelievable, if an elderly person slips on that...I just hope that doesn't happen.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 28, 2009, 10:32:56 pm
You've certainly been having it alot colder up north Brian and Martin, thats a great vid Martin, really puts it all into perspective.

Just went up to mothers for the day in the end, back at home now.  Up in Stoke (mothers) it's clear sky and below freezing.  Here in Brum we have freezing fog and quite an impressive Hoar frost forming already.

Just had a look on the radar and the weather front is nudging into cornwall.  Not going bed yet for a good hour or four so going to keep my eye on its progress.  Thanks for putting up the UKww transcript up Martin, it brought a smile to my face!  Fingers crossed for some snow for tomorrow!  ;D


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 29, 2009, 12:46:43 am
Thanks Mark, I bet your chances of snow are very good over the next few days, I hope you get it, keep the camera handy!

A few from today

(http://i49.tinypic.com/2rwujac.jpg)

(http://i49.tinypic.com/1rwv0x.jpg)

(http://i47.tinypic.com/262a6g3.jpg)

(http://i50.tinypic.com/14mm1v.jpg)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Tyler on December 29, 2009, 03:03:53 am
Martin, that last shot is just Fantastic! really love the use of DOF. Also displays just how much ice is on the road! well done.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 29, 2009, 04:02:14 am
Thanks very much Tyler!, how's things in the US?, any atmospherics yet?


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on December 29, 2009, 06:51:01 am
Since yesterday an active cyclone from the Black Sea is passing northwards across Ukraine. Intense rain at +2C was here yesterday. During nights it was still raining, along with strong winds (10-18 m/s) and a very significant pressure drop - 28 hPa per day (!), minimal pressure was 978 hPa (sea level). Now the pressure is rising, the winds keep being strong, some wet snow is falling.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 29, 2009, 12:41:37 pm
Thanks Mark, I bet your chances of snow are very good over the next few days, I hope you get it, keep the camera handy!

Brilliant shots there Martin!   :D

Bit of a damp squib start to the day for me...  Went to bed late last night hoping that snow might fall before dawn, got up this morning to find everywhere damp, first band of ppt passed through, dying off before it hit us then regaining its potency as it ploughed into the Pennines.  Had a few flurries since then but nothing much really.  It's a very grey day with fast moving clouds in quite a persistent easterly wind.  Looks like there's another band of ppt coming in soon so we'll see if this one musters anything.   

It looks like snow is readily falling quite heavily in the Brecon Beacons, fingers crossed it heads my way a bit.  I suspect this weather will wiggle about a bit anyway as the driving low looks set to rotate around off the south west coast of Ireland / the Bay of Biscay region for a few days.  The end of the week / beginning of the new year looks like its going to get colder again as a north easterly sets in...  Brrrr!!!!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 29, 2009, 07:43:31 pm
Thanks Mark, we had to complain to the council today because the roads were so bad here, next thing a dumper truck arrives leaving mounds of salt in the estate, spent alot of time spreading it out with a shovel, so I finally got the car out.

Heard today that a fire engine fell on it's side yesterday in the Maghera area due to the ice while heading to a chimney fire, no one hurt thank goodness.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 29, 2009, 10:00:29 pm
18Z update

12Z Models have a reasonable precipitation envelope on their T+6 FRames.  Precipitation intensity remains key to any snowfall.  Frankly the air is simply not cold enough for much snow to lie below 300m.  Heavier Precip is bringing the WBFL down to 150m, but most of the precip is generally moderate at present though a new heavier band is currently developing along the south coast and will need to be watched as it pushes north. 

Outside the heavier bursts - the WBFL is recovering to around 400-500m, meaning snow above 250-300m for most.  Nocturnal cooling, constant precip are "for" the rain turning to snow, however the constant mixing of air is not allowing the falling precip to cool the B.L as much as would be seen in a "still" situation

Nevertheless Snow will occur with heavy falls over the Welsh Mountains, Peaks and also Southern N England as well as the mountains of N Ireland during the night.

The back edge is largely marked by upper level temp changes and a change in WBPT strcuture, it does not mark the surface front which remains held over the English Channel and is accom by a marked wind veer.  11/12C now in the Western English Channel and ever over 10C in West Cornwall with a SW Wind.  Surface Front not making a whole lot of progress North east over the next 24hrs, perhaps a little then gradually retreating again as cold advection from the north takes over.

Rain bands forming close to the trough axis continue to to show convective components and some heavy rain is likely off and on over the next 24hrs across the south  with largely a status quo for the next 12-18hrs or so as very little changes.  CBs in SW Approaches potential for 10-15mm in 3-4 hrs in places over the next 18hrs or so

Wednesday sees the frontal band lying across N Ireland, N England and Wales reinforced at times by precip forming to the South and pushing north.  a gradual weakening of the band is likely through tomorrow , but ECMWF is keen to bring another active band north across SW England and into the Mids and Wales where it will turn to snow ove rthe Hills.

Increasingly cold air moves SSW across the UK over the coming 48hrs, but it will take until Thurs evening to reach the south coast and SE.  At the same time low at 850mbs moves ENE across N France into the Benelux.  The Question is how far north does its assoc precipitation come. ECM and UKMO GM are a tad further N than the GFS and bring the risk of rain turning to Snow across the S and SE on NYE or Ice threat if no snow.

Friday and Saturday bring a cold NE flow and Snow Showers around Northern and Eastern Coasts, 5-15cm likely in some NE Parts running into the SE at times

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society
Southbourne, Dorset, 1M ASL.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 29, 2009, 11:21:00 pm
Snow flakes mixed in with the rain here now.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 29, 2009, 11:46:46 pm
Here's the truck load of salt delivered to our estate today...

(http://i45.tinypic.com/nq2wo.jpg)

Chance of snow for NI Wed/Thur with further snow showers around New Year.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 30, 2009, 11:02:46 am
The 18Z update you posted is / was absolutely spot on right.

I'm at an altitude of ~170m here in west mids.  It started raining quite heavily about 4-5pm yesterday aft, by 7pm this had turned to wet snow, and where surfaces were well drained it was sticking.  This heavy ppt continued till ~9pm when it stopped and the temperature rose.  The slushy inch that had settled by this point started to melt, with the drip, drip, drip sound of water everywhere...

I've got up this morning, we still have the strong easterly and everywhere is wet and its raining, again, no snow... 

Roll on new years eve when the cool, clear air sinks south and we hopefully get a view of the penumbral lunar eclipse!  ;D

*Edit*
Forgot to say, there's a big problem this year round my way with lifes 'social scum' going around and not only stealing the grit from the grit bins but also stealing the big yellow bins themselves!  I really hate the way society has gone in certain directions...   :-\


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on December 30, 2009, 11:29:29 am
Quote
stealing the grit from the grit bins
Ummm, it's there to be used & in many places there have been good excuses to do so.  (Apart from flavouring your takeaway fish & chips, which road salt isn't very good for anyway)

Can't see much point in nicking the bins though, they're not much good for anything else.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 30, 2009, 02:59:26 pm
Sorry to hear about those scum bags Mark, I detest that sort of behaviour!

Last night and today was/is horrible, wet sleet mixed with snow all night with bitter wind, today the wind is very strong from the NE and it would cut clean through you, combine that with rain/sleet and it's horrendous, the kind of day that would leave you in bed sick for a week.

There's a severe cold spell heading for us once this frontal system passes through, polar air is going move over all of Ireland bringing with it severe frosts, ice days, heavy snow showers in places, occasional coastal thunderstorms/thundersnow. RTE is going for temps as low as - 10 C and below for parts of the country for the New Year - no sign of it changing either, this could turn into a signifcant cold event for recent times.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 30, 2009, 03:08:29 pm
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/article6970816.ece


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 30, 2009, 04:34:33 pm
Nasty gale force gusts here shaking the lamp posts and road signs...horrible day.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Tyler on December 30, 2009, 05:57:42 pm
Thanks very much Tyler!, how's things in the US?, any atmospherics yet?

nahh, with the monsterous system wrapping around so much, the wind had died to nearly nothing before the clouds clear, thus limited ice crystals in the air. So no AT optics for this one.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Padraig OBrien on December 30, 2009, 06:06:56 pm
More great pics  from up there Martin wonderful to look at ,did the most stupid thing ive done this year so far sleeting here all day so went up to the Wicklow Mountains to see if i could get snow was on my way up this narrow road going all fine could see there was some snow on the mountains so we said there will be hardly any  on the road, a few hundred yards ahead and snow was all over the road went as far as we could go but there was white out blizzard conditions up there was getting quite tense because we said *&&*& it and stopped its not worth it getting stuck just to get pics so as the road was so narrow we could not turn just there, so we had to reverse down all the way about a mile of icy narrow road nearly going off the edge a couple of times the 4x4 kicked in and helped a lot though as we were heading home we heard that there was 5 ft of snow up there unreal to hear that so was lucky enough to get home that reversing down the slope just took a lot of me today but the blizzards were amazing to see  sweeping through the freaky thing about it was that there was more snow on the road then on the grass!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on December 30, 2009, 06:12:09 pm
Quote
stealing the grit from the grit bins
Ummm, it's there to be used & in many places there have been good excuses to do so.

It's not being used like it should be - on the roads and pavements in the bins immediate vicinity.  This is from people coming along in vans, bagging it up and then selling it on in pubs, at car boot sales etc.  It's just plain and simple theft.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on December 30, 2009, 08:27:51 pm
Thats a raw wind out there today temps around 2-4C but with the windchill it feels around -4!  A bit of a thaw today as well but its amazing how the ice is still hanging on around all the footpaths and roads here, people are still parking on the roadsides because they cant get their cars in and out of their driveways and with a renewed cold spell developing over the next few days things aren't gonna get any better. I really cant remember a cold spell of this magnitude lasting so long. Im happy to report that the snowman I built 10 days ago is still here although hes shrunk considerably and his head is sagging to one side, hoping for more snow maybe fri/sat to build another :) :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 30, 2009, 11:09:30 pm
Met O have severe weather warnings out for NI Thurs and Fri with Fri bringing snow to some parts...

There is a moderate risk that snow showers will affect many areas, especially coasts and hills exposed to the north. The showers may be heavy and give fresh accumulations of 2-5cm in some places and locally 10cm.

There is also a moderate risk of icy patches developing during the course of New Year's Eve on untreated surfaces.


Issued at: 1804 Wed 30 Dec


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 31, 2009, 12:59:25 am
UKww Weather warning for Heavy snow

Issued Thursday 31/12/2009 0000GMT

Areas affected by Warning -  Scotland

Areas affected by Watch -  NE England, Northern Ireland, Wales
 
Valid from: 0000GMT Thursday 31st December - 2359GMT Thursday 31st December

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

General evolution:

At 18Z Wed a 981hPa low lies south of Ireland with associated occluded front extending across the south coast of England. This front is forecast to move south during the forecast period bringing colder air further south.
 
Forecast:
Heavy snow likely to continue across the northern Cambrian mountains early into Thursday. After this further heavy snow is likely for all of Scotland including the Western Isles (Accumulations up to 10cm) and NE England (Accumulations up to 5cm). Late into Thursday snow will become more likely across western parts of Northern Ireland as snow showers move into NW Ireland.

Met Office Rainfall Radar: HERE

UKww will monitor this Warning and update it if necessary.

Issued by PJK for UKww, 0000z 31/12/2009


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on December 31, 2009, 02:21:05 pm
The Jan 2010 forecast is up on UKww and makes some interesting reading looks like the cold weather will hang on into the second week of January if not longer! especially here in the northern half of the UK.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=34388&posts=1#M503385 (http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=34388&posts=1#M503385)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on December 31, 2009, 06:38:03 pm
I walked through the snow on Glenshane Pass today, it covers my knees, easily 20" - so beautiful though, it was like the view in the Arctic, blue sky, intense low sun, and brilliant white everywhere, even my eyes are sore.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 01, 2010, 01:34:16 am
Glenshane today...

(http://i45.tinypic.com/e9c8w5.jpg)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: rjgjr on January 01, 2010, 01:59:07 am
Excellent shot Martin, cold but beautiful. Happy New Year!!!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 01, 2010, 02:31:06 am
Happy New Year Richard!!!..and thanks for the comment  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 01, 2010, 12:50:41 pm
Excellent shot there Martin!  A cold and frosty start to the new year for me - well below freezing over night, barely above in the day.  However, it is a beautifully clear sky so could be an evening to get the scope out...  Just wish we'd got some snow here - oh well, i'm sure the winter will have some for me before the season ends!  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 01, 2010, 03:05:14 pm
Thanks very much Mark, today the ponds in Drumlamph are frozen solid, I was able to walk across them with ease, absolute solid ice, others had been doing it before I arrived, they wrote their names on the ice. So I wrote my website URL on it for some advertsing lol.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 01, 2010, 03:18:25 pm
UKww Weather warning & watch for Heavy snow & icy roads

Issued Friday 01/01/2010 1400GMT

Areas affected by Warning -  NE & E Scotland, Highlands, NE England

Areas affected by Watch -  E England, N England, Midlands, SE England, Home Counties, London, NW Wales

Valid from: 1400GMT Friday 1st January - 1200GMT Saturday 2nd January

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

General evolution:

A shallow low pressure area will run down the east coast later today and into tonight with associated troughs running through the NE, east and SE of England keeping all areas in a cold polar air mass.
Forecast:
Watch area- A band of snow showers will move south later through eastern England and the Midlands before reaching London & SE England later this evening and tonight. Some slight accumulations are possible of a few cm almost anywhere. Some icy patches are also likely to develop. Snow showers will continue across NW Wales today and tonight also.   
Warning area- Another band of snow showers will work south across Scotland this evening. Some heavy snow is likely at times esp nr exposed NE coasts here. By around 06Z another band of more persistent snow, heavy at times is likely to run across most of E Scotland & the Highlands -though sleety near coasts- (accumulations up to 10cm) and also affect NE England later too & the Pennines from 09Z(accumulations up to 5cm). Icy patches are likely with drifting over hills.

Travel conditions may be very difficult so listen to local radio updates and forecasts. 

UKww will monitor this Warning and update it if necessary.



Issued by DJW for UKww, 1400Z 01/01/2010



Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 01, 2010, 03:29:46 pm
Hey Martin, do you have a link you can share for these UKww warnings you've been posting.  They're very good I have to say - would like to pop it in my favourites  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 01, 2010, 03:34:44 pm
Try this Mark..

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/forum-view.asp?fid=12

Heavy snow here now!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 01, 2010, 06:10:11 pm
Short Term Synoptic Discussion - New Year Cold Spell

** A Very Happy New Year to all **

Synoptic Analysis

Upper level Omega Block covers the Western Atlantic.  Broad and extending Trough reaches from N Scandinavia to SW England.  Strong Westerly Jet persists across the Atlantic and Mediterranean.  Very Cold Pool of Air covers Scandinavia and NE Europe.  It remains mild or warm in SE Europe. This block will not change much over the coming few days with the large Omega Block persisting in the Western Atlantic and a broad and at times extended trough coming SW across much of N Europe.

Detail

Falling contour heights assoc with a sharp upper trough coming SW over the Norwegian Sea have brought Snow Showers south today to parts of the North of England and further copious Snow to parts of Moray and Aberdeenshire where another 12-15cm has fallen in places marked by a bitter windchill.  5-10cm has fallen inland across parts of NE England and the Borders assoc with the low which has now fallen apart bit is still bringing snow inland across Yorks.   Heavy Sleet,Hail and Snow showers now coming off the Irish Sea into West Wales will readily fall as Snow inland (backing flow) - these being carried into the SW along the Coasts this evening and tonight with Snow inland giving a few cms in places.

Overnight very cold in the Glens of Scotland - with a widespread frost elsewhere -2 to -5C and into the minus teens across the Snow fields of Scotland where skies clear. 

Another low is organising to the WSW of Norway and will come south tomorrow weakening with time.  The low has warmed through convective feedback and latent heat release, hence contains > 2C WBPT near to its circulation Centre.  Precip near to NE Coasts likely to be of Sleet at times, however inland Snow is more likely as the feature comes South.  12Z NAE and GFS are keener to bring a more coherent band south during tomorrow giving a cm or two in the north and even a dusting across other parts of N England into the Midlands before it fizzles as it comes into Southern England, however with energy from the Seas Snow Showers nearer the East Coast and East Anglia persisting throughout.  Some Heavy Falls seem likely in parts of NE England and the Borders tomorrow afternoon (adding to accumulations already there) Further Snow then coming South across the Manchester, Leeds areas into Wales and the North Midlands tomorrow Night. 

VEry Cold air from Sweden following into the North behind this trough (516 TT comes into Eastern England for a time before shearing away south)

Ridging extends SE from Iceland on Sunday and into Monday before another extending trough comes SSW from the Norwegian Sea and it is this trough which becomes very important for the longevity of the Block affecting the UK

By the Middle of Next Week this Sharp upper trough extends across the UK from Scandinavia,  Both the 00Z and 12Z Global Models have developed a low in the base of this trough over England before swinging it South.  The 12Z GFS is a little bit more keen on this aspect and the 12Z GME develops a deep low in the SW Approaches. This is an aspect which needs close watching as with very cold air in place the chances of some disruptive snow are possible -if - a low does develop.  Watch This Space.  Regardless of this - with an increasingly cold and cyclonic look to the upper and surface pattern next week - cold and snowy weather looks set to make a return to many places.

Later next week there are increasing signals from the GFS and ECM Ensembles for High PRessure to build into the Right Entrance of this extending SW Jet and develop high pressure from Scandinavia to Scotland with a very cold Easterly across the South and more Snow to come into the SE. 

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society
Southbourne, Dorset, 1M ASL.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 01, 2010, 07:35:08 pm
Met Eirann Land

Weather Warning

Issued at 01 January 2010 - 14:20
Weather warning
Widespread icy condtions Friday evening and night - especially where snow is lying (mainly in the east and southeast, also parts of the northwest). Fog in places also.l Air temperatures falling to - 4 C or below in many areas, reaching - 8 to - 10 C locally. Dry in most places. Isolated wintry showers in the northwest - then, patchy rain, sleet or snow moving southwards across Ulster and north Connacht late in the night or on Saturday morning.



Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 02, 2010, 11:22:47 am
Spent most of last night sat up in the hope of viewing / imaging mars, only to have cloudy skies till I went to bed not so many hours ago.  However since then we've had a snow shower thats caused a nice dusting everywhere.  Though saying that, in the lovely blue sky we have now anywhere in direct sunlight is having a rapid thaw.  Still, where I live is in a bit of a hollow so it'll stay looking wintry for a while yet, temperatures in the shade are still below freezing...  Looking at the charts / forecast it wouldn't surprise me if the dusting we have now doesn't have a top up from another trough line moving south tonight...  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 02, 2010, 01:59:24 pm
11Z Update

Synoptic Update

Trough is coming south across the North of England with a following trough over Southern Scotland.  Very Cold Pool of air will follow briefly behind these troughs before pressure and contour heights recover from the North (for a time)

Radar confirms two troughs - The first stretching from N Ireland across the Irish Sea to N England.  The 2nd from the Lowlands of Scotland to Teeside.  Lots of Showers following to Aberdeenshire and Moray adding to the already very large snowfalls experienced here.

WBFL in this 1st band are around 300-500m, therefore Precip largely of Rain/Sleet on windward coasts - but readily falling as Snow inland (reports of 3-5cm inland across NW England this morning) - Snow band now moving inland across the Peak District and into the NE Midlands.  ECWMF has a good fix on this and takes it SSE towards the Midlands, Essex, the Northern Home Counties and London before fizzling out this evening.

The 2nd band moves South and there is not such good agreement on its Longevity, the ECMWF kills it off smartly howver the GFS and NAE maintain it somewhat longer and again slide it SE towards the East Midlands, East Anglia and Essex.   Much Lower WBFL (nr Sea Level) come south behind this 2nd trough with Showers falling as Snow right to Coastal Sea facing sites across the NE during the evening and night - with quite poor conditions possible in NE England for a time.

The South and SW having a largely dry and very sunny day - though still cold inland from overnight frost.

Snow Bands clearing tonight and with lighter winds and clearer skies across Scotland, a very cold night is in prospect.  High Resolution Models suggest -18C possible over the Snow Fields of Scotland, and elsewhere -3 to -10C esp with any Snowcover.   Cloud coming South over the south may halt temp falls here until later in the night.

A Mostly fair Monday across the South under a ridge of High PRessure, but higher WBFL coming into the North assoc with a weak frontal system, cloud increasing with Rain, Sleet and Snow coming into Scotland.  This herelds much colder air to sweep SW down across the whole of the UK into next week as a major trough extends SW into NW Europe from Scandinavia.  Details are hard to pin down at this range, but outbreaks of Snow gradually becoming more widespread across many parts of the UK as Cold NE Winds spread down across the whole of the UK.  SEvere Frosts becoming a more widespread problem with increasing number of areas seeing sub zero max's esp away from the SW and West.


-----

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society
Southbourne, Dorset, 1M ASL.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 02, 2010, 04:42:37 pm
Seen snow showers falling from convective cells over the hills from Draperstown, some impressive convection visible to the E and NE.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 02, 2010, 04:45:26 pm
FORECAST FOR Monday 4th January- Sunday 10th January 2010

ISSUED 2nd January 1100Z

SPECIAL NOTE/WARNING REGARDING POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE PERIOD
There is likely to be significant snow at times in places esp the east this week drifting at times in strong winds, along with icy roads, severe frosts & freezing fog patches. Travelling conditions are likely to be difficult and possibly dangerous at times. If in doubt about your travel then postpone or cancel it. Listen to local weather updates on the radio for up to date information, road closures etc. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WEEKLY SUMMARY   
Another cold or very cold week to come weatherwise and potentially a wintry one too for many areas but more especially in the north eastern and eastern parts of the UK and perhaps by midweek other parts also, though by later in the week and the weekend high pressure developing over the north and NW, keeping it drier with some sunny periods, though still bitterly cold. The east & SE cloudier and may still see further snow showers or longer periods of snow at times.   

Monday 4th looks likely to see a weak ridge of high pressure over the UK at first. A slight-moderate early frost in many areas away from coasts, though severe in the Highlands, with icy patches on roads, some mist and freezing fog patches about, slow to clear in places. Wintry showers running into the north east and east coasts at times, heavy in places with some local accumulations, mainly over hills. Sunny periods by day for most from central Wales & the Midlands southwards with a moderate frost & icy patches reforming by evening here. Cloudier further north with a band of heavier sleet & snow showers pushing into northern Scotland by the afternoon and then south across central & southern Scotland & N Ireland in the evening with some accumulations. Temperatures should stay well below average at -1C to +2C in most areas today and only -2 to -4C in the Highlands but perhaps up to 4C in the far SW and near some western coasts of Wales too. 
Tuesday 5th will probably see a slack NNE flow across most areas today with low pressure in the North Sea and troughs moving slowly south in the flow esp across northern areas. A reasonably clear night for the far north and some southern parts too with a slight-moderate frost likely, but severe in the Highlands; icy patches and some freezing mist patches & low cloud about. The frost still severe locally, especially in prone valleys in the Highlands. A band of wintry showers moving south across the Midlands and N Wales at first, then by evening down across central southern parts of England, E Anglia and S Wales and SW England. There may be some accumulations esp over high ground. Wintry showers then still affecting the north & Highland areas of Scotland, heavy at times, further accumulations are likely in places with drifting in -by then- strengthening NE'ly winds. However another frost soon develop for most inland areas and a severe frost developing by dusk in northern inland parts of the UK, with icy patches. Temperatures generally staying well below average at -1 to +2C but only -3C in the Highlands, though maybe up to 3C in the southwest and S Wales & along the south coast. 

Wednesday 6th looks to see low pressure in the southern North Sea with a moderate NE'ly flow across the UK. Wintry showers continuing still overnight and by day in the north and north east, especially near northern & NE coasts of the UK, including through eastern East Anglia, N Wales & N Ireland, still heavy at times with more snow accumulating, esp over hills but the south and SW staying rather drier after early wintry showers clear away southwest-wards with more in the way of sunshine after an early moderate frost with icy patches about. Another moderate-severe frost soon setting in after dusk inland for most. Temperatures feeling very cold at -2C to 1C generally though maybe 1- 3C in the far west and SW and along the south coasts.     
Thursday 7th looks likely to see a weak N-NEly flow for most, as a weak ridge tries to push into the NW. A widespread moderate-severe frost again at first away from eastern coasts with icy patches and freezing mist or fog patches about. Wintry showers continuing overnight in coastal north & NE with some further accumulations locally here. Another very cold start in Scotland with temperatures as low as -10C in the glens and again by evening another moderate to severe frost developing across the north away from coasts and some freezing mist & fog patches again too. By day sunny periods though developing for most of the western and central areas of England along with much of Wales & N Ireland but freezing fog slow to clear in places inland and the east seeing further snow showers, mainly near coasts, giving further accumulations of a few cm in places.  Another bitterly cold day, max temperatures about -3C to 0C but maybe 1-3C in the far west, near eastern coasts and the SW, only -8C to -4C across the Highlands & where freezing fog is slow to clear.     

Friday 8th seems on the whole to see little change but slightly milder weather associated with a small low may move south across western parts. A widespread early moderate to severe frost with localised freezing mist patches and icy patches in many areas away from coasts but some weak sunshine by day if the freezing fog and mist clears. In the NE and east though near coasts still rather cloudier with snow showers, esp over high ground, such as the North York Moors & further accumulations are likely. Driest in the south probably still with sunny periods. Freezing fog and mist patches may not clear and will likely return to many inland areas across the UK by the evening. The north west cloudier overnight with sleet and snow at times moving south through W Wales and down into the SW later where some accumulations are likely, esp over hills. Temperatures generally a bitterly cold -4C to -1C by day for most though up to 2C around the far SW and some coasts but only up to -6C over the Highlands.   
Saturday 9th and Sunday 10th seems likely to see another high pressure establish to the north allowing a bitter NE'ly flow across most other parts. An exceptionally cold start just about everywhere away from coasts, the Highland may see as low as -20C to -15C. Near eastern coasts and in the SE a lot of cloud and some showery outbreaks of snow still likely through Saturday and into Sunday, with some more accumulations likely in places, especially over the high ground with some drifting. In the west and central parts brighter with weak sunny periods when and where freezing mist clears. Saturday night again bitterly cold inland with some freezing mist esp in the north & Sunday may see the precipitation more slightly further west in the south with the risk of significant accumulations at times still here. Some sunshine in the west and NW but some freezing mist or fog patches may linger here initially. Another very cold night & day esp across the Highlands and northern uplands. Temperatures over the weekend by day will likely be cold for all areas on both Saturday & Sunday at -1C to 2C , possibly only -5C in the Highlands and where any fog doesn't clear but more like 2-4C in the far south & SW.   

FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK
*Some freezing fog patches, mist and low cloud inland through the week & weekend more esp in the north 

*Risk of moderate or heavy snow in places, esp in the east & north initially in the week but the SE, south of England & Midlands may see more snow at times esp from midweek for a time.   
*Moderate- Severe frosts overnight during much of the week in the north, locally very severe in the Highlands later with icy patches at times esp where there's a lot of surface snow and frozen water

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate-high becoming moderate-poor by Friday
WW & UKww disclaimer: The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data. Wiseweather & UKww are providing the data "as is" and disclaim any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability

-----
Dave Wiseman
UKww Executive/C & M Manager/Warnings team


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 02, 2010, 05:18:49 pm
Another chilly week in store then!  :)

Saturdays first trough just passing over me now - rain with bits of sleet, oh well...  :-\


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 02, 2010, 10:35:39 pm
Isolated cell today near Draperstown which had a heavy core of snow falling from below, it gave the mountains a good white covering and a had a great updraught base which looked capable of producing a funnel cloud. There where more beautiful convective clouds last night lit by the Moon with stars above.

(http://i48.tinypic.com/2ms3vyx.jpg)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: jjb on January 03, 2010, 11:54:29 am
Nice image Martin and for a brilliant one you should dander up to the top of that mountain and take a few don't forget to take  a bob sleigh for a quick way down it would be good craic!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 03, 2010, 12:18:21 pm
11Z Update - Sunday

UK Currently lies under a ridge of High Pressure stretching from Iceland to Belgium. Low pressure to the SW has fully matured and is now spinning west.  New frontal  Low has developed in the bifurcating upper flow over Biscay and is bringing Rain/Sleet and Snow to France. 

Another Low is bringing rain/showers and windy condiitions to the Azores.  Much Colder air is gathering to the NE of the UK as a significant pattern change gets underway.  A sharp trough will dig SW and Partially disrupt allowing high pressure to build to the North of the UK.  This eventually switching the air source from a Maritime one to a continental one  (albeit still with some sea interaction)

Discussion

Colder low level air has sunk South overnight, except to the far southwest with 950mb temps a few degrees down on yesterday across most parts and subzero WBPT across most of England and Wales except the far SW.  Outbreaks of light rain has been experienced in the SW this morning with a cold easterly wind (gusting to 30Knts on the headlands - Berry Head and Culdrose for example) Further east and north Snow showers are continuing to run inland.  Most if not all of these are currently of snow.  Albermarle and Nottingham ascents had WBFLs lesss than 100m.  Some quite heavy snow possible in Eastern and NE England this morning 2-5cm in places and up to 10cm on the moors.

Interesting Feature has developed in the Thames Estury - largely topographical and frictionally induced shower train is now running Snow Showers into North Kent with a couple making there way over into Sussex.  Very Local but up to 10cm here through the day as the shower train stays put, a gradually backing flow turning it more NE/SW as opposed to the the current ENE/WSW but further Snow lasting into the Evening.

In N Scotland, less cold air is moving in (assoc with >2C WBPT) and is linked to warmer air coming around the top of Iceland, this flowing south and getting mixed up with weak fronts coming south tomorrow in the north.   Elsewhere across Scotland - a very cold night has just been experienced -6 to -17C, though temperatures are responding now to insolation. However tonight under the ridge axis looks very cold again.

Tomorrow Night and Into Tuesday sees a cold front come into Scotland and this ushering in a sharp upper trough which comes South across the UK on Tues and Weds, with a very cold Arctic Maritime airmass following.  The problem is this upper trough is currently rounding Northern Greenland which is a death trap in terms of Observational coverage, therefore its perhaps not a surprise that there is considerable inter and intra model disagreement on the sharpness and speed of the trough as it comes south.  It is interesting to note that the 06Z and 18Z Runs and the ECMWF which all benefit from the capture of late observations all bring the trough south more slowly and sharper than the 00Z and 12Z Runs of the GFS and UKMO.  The scenario is that the deeper and slower trough develops a low over England and deepens it over the English Channel.  This has the effect of drawing south a weak band of rain/sleet which increases  in intensity as a low develops and has the potential to develop heavy Snow across parts of the South of England. However a faster trough and less sharp is not able to do this (it doesnt have time) and the low doesnt develop until the trough is into Biscay or N France.  In the grand scheme there is little difference to the eventual outcome of high pressure building and a cold ENE developing across the UK, but it could make significant difference to the actual weather experienced.

Take the 00Z GFS it had 0-2Cm over Somerset and Dorset coming south on Tues/Weds, vs the 06Z run which produces 23cm north of Southampton hence considerable uncertainty.  The 12Z ECMWF and 00Z runs have Snow over Southern England - but differing areas and intensities make it very difficult.  Once the trough enters into the Norwegian Sea and into the domain of the higher resolution models we should have a better idea.

Beyond Tues/ WEds there is good intermodel agreement on a very cold ENE developing across England and Wales with Snow Showers in tthe east coming west at times with troughs developing.  Threat of more widespread Snow moving towaeds the SE later next week as moisture is advected northwest towards the UK.  Something the models do not handle very well.

Increasingly cold and cloudy will make it feel very cold out and about at times this week - the windchill having a signgicant effect on the feel of the weather and a far cry from the clear blue skies and =relative warmth= of this weekend in the south. 

An interesting week to come !

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 03, 2010, 12:49:49 pm
Thanks Jonathan, I would go up there but I don't think the car would make it, my Aunt who lives in the area, has only got her car out once over the entire Christmas period due to the ice, it's difficult enough to get out of the estate here. I'm sure the view would be awesome though.  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 03, 2010, 02:51:44 pm
Thought I would have seen some fresh snow here by today but its just not working out, think it was xmas day the last time a flake fell. Very penetrating frost last night, my little thermometer was showing -8 at 0200am!  Looking ahead it could be hit and miss for snow this week as well, come on I NEED more snow!! :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on January 03, 2010, 04:17:17 pm
Quote
my little thermometer was showing -8 at 0200am!
Interesting, there was a ground frost here last night but the min air temp was +0.2C. But already (4pm) below -2C, sky is clear, & not too humid, not a breath of wind ... I smell fog coming later :'(


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 03, 2010, 04:39:53 pm
It was an ice day here, frozen all day long, the ponds in Magherafelt are frozen solid.

The models are showing snow over Ireland, N. Ireland for Mon/Tues period again Thurs, there will be lots of Wintry showers around this week so I will be shocked if we don't get snow, potential for at least one good fall I should think.

This is going to be a nasty night temp-wise!, again possibe - 10 in some rural areas. Brian could be rite about the freezing fog.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 03, 2010, 04:43:00 pm
From Irish Weather Network...

The 06z Hi res is out and of interest to most is that the frontal system moving south during Monday afternoon into the overnight period is forecasted to be more snow than sleet. The air ahead of the front is still quite cold and with no huge increase in 850mb temps throughout.

Now with the air cold over a dry land, it is hard to pinpoint how far south this is going to get before it all dries out in the atmosphere. Places most likely on lower ground to see some lying snow is central NI, N Leinster and parts of E Connaught. Places along the N, NW and parts of the west coast will have a sleet/snow mix.



Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 03, 2010, 04:51:48 pm
Thats a big variation there Brian I just wonder if my thermometer is accurate its only a cheap one, id love to invest in a proper weather station. Showing -3 air temp here at 16:45. Hope your right about that snow Martin


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 03, 2010, 07:12:17 pm
All this talk of temperatures has promted me to put my el-cheapo maximum minimum thermometer within binocular view of my living room window.  I think I may have to keep my eye on the Maplins sale for a weather station...

Woke up this morning to the lightest of dustings of snow - someone with bad dandruff could have had more of an imapct...  It's been lovely blue skies all day and nightfall is just as clear.  I think i'll give it another several hours then will have a go at imagaing the moon and mars with my ETX90, see what captures I can grab...

Tomorrow is the first day back at work (school) for me  :-[ and I have the pleasure of a whole days teacher training on how to use Photoshop - the fact that I already use Photoshop and feel quite competent with it seems to have no bearing - you WILL do this training...  Oh well, so be it, i'll just use my own data (read mars and moon) to demonstrate my competency ;)

I'm hoping, reading the updates and looking at this weeks synoptic charts, that the front coming down late monday night / tuesday morning will be kind enough to deposit a dollop of snow over us in the west midlands, we seem to have escaped so far this winter.  Unless the forecast detail changes, for me, I think this is the best hope for snow.  I suspect later in the week wintry showers will be confined to coastal regions.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on January 03, 2010, 07:35:04 pm
Quote
the fact that I already use Photoshop and feel quite competent with it seems to have no bearing - you WILL do this training...
Been there, done that. Not Photoshop training, I tend to use other tools.... At the Uni I wrote a major element of one of the computer safety courses, the blithering idiots in admin still wanted me to do the wretched course.

Temp here is typical of this coastal location with no wind & a frost, varying wildly between -2C and -5C, no chance whatsoever of the scope temperature stabilizing so the seeing is going to be badly compromised. Noticed when observing the Sun this afternoon, seeing was pants, then there was a breath of wind & the seeing sharpened & steadied up for 5-10 secs, then gradually deteriorated again.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: scott86 on January 03, 2010, 11:27:16 pm
Was in Belfast and it was -1, gradually crept down as i left the city then just as i arrived back in lisburn the car read -7!!! The snow hasnt thawed one bit, even with the gritters making 2 passes down my street today!!!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 04, 2010, 09:17:00 am
A light dusting of snow here this morning falling onto frozen ground.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on January 04, 2010, 10:46:43 am
Ugh, the weather read the meteor shower forecast, cloud cover set in  & showers developed - here they were rain / very wet sleet onto frozen ground - roads here are covered in 3-4 mm of a mix of verglas (smooth clear "black ice") & granular ice. Glad I don't have to drive today.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 04, 2010, 02:12:22 pm
We had snow showers here last night which left a fine white dusting, should get more this evening and early Tues morning, there could very well be a severe ice event over the next 24 hrs!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 04, 2010, 02:24:06 pm
There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting Northern Ireland, parts of southwest Scotland, northwest England and North Wales on Tuesday.

Overnight rain, sleet and snow will clear southwards early Tuesday and as temperatures fall, widespread ice is likely to form on untreated roads and paths. Further heavy snowfall may then develop across Northern Ireland.

Issued at: 1152 Mon 4 Jan


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 04, 2010, 02:32:14 pm
Here's one of the frozen ponds in Drumlamph woodland, Maghera. As you can see, one can stand on it, walking across feels just like concrete!

(http://i46.tinypic.com/2r4r33q.jpg)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 04, 2010, 02:50:34 pm
We had snow showers here last night
And we had snow from a clear sky today - that was fun!  :) Ok, the sky wasn't completely clear, but the Sun was shining, and thin clouds (Frst??) which have covered less than 60% of the sky seemed to be not able to produce any precipitation. Nevertheless, there was slight flurry in the afternoon.

P.S. -15C here at the moment, and it is just only 1 hour after sunset, I can't guess what temperature will be at sunrise.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 04, 2010, 07:15:01 pm
Brrrrrr!!!!  It's darn cold wherever you are!

Have you much in the way of snow in N Ireland at the moment?  I notice that polar front is just pushing down now.  Met Office has a 'Be Aware' forecast for me, but watching the direction the front is coming down, providing it doesn't run out of gusto it has a chance I think of blowing down through the Cheshire gap to give some of the wintery stuff down here in the west mids...  I kinda half expect when I get up tomorrow morning for it to be white over...


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 04, 2010, 08:33:30 pm
I'm waiting on that front to arrive here Mark, I expect good snow from it ,with luck. Today there where snow showers on high ground, I went up to the Glenshane Pass and wasn't surprised to see plenty of deep snow around....

(http://i49.tinypic.com/2eelb9x.jpg)

Almost got the car stuck in the Ponderosa carpark. That snow has been there since before Christmas and keeps getting more dumped on it, I can only imagine what the conditions will be like tonight. Hope you get the snow Mark!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 04, 2010, 10:21:16 pm
19Z Update

The very blocked scenario continues.  A large upper and surface high is located in the vicinity of Greenland and an increasingly cyclonic NE'ly is penetrating SSW towards the UK.  The Atlantic remains blocked and depressions are being sent towards Iberia and the Med giving winter rains to the Med.

The devil is in the detail over the next 48hrs with continuing inter and intra model run variability giving a nightmare forecasting scenario.  The Midday Analysis presented no obvious errors in comparing WV imagery to model forecast fields. The Upper trough coming SE now out of the data sparse greenland area and into the Norwegian Sea.  This is in the domain the NAE and with more plentiful observations it is expected that forecast accuracy should improve for the next 48hrs, though beyond this there contines to be problems in the shape of the block by the weekend. (The EcM for example insists on a more cyclonic look throughout and into the start of next week vs the more anticylonic GFS)

Anyway - lets look at the detail for the next 48hrs...

The upper trough coming south has been causing all sorts of problems over the last 48hrs as it moves into areas of Data coverage vs areas of non data coverage (typical of a trough crossing Greenland), however the 12Z Analysis and Model evolution brings a sharper trough south slower than previous runs of some models.  This has the effect of elongating the trough and allowing it to develop a new surface low in its base which is then locked in by the upper trough where it becomes slow moving before moving south.  This allows a flood of very cold arctic air to move across the whole of the UK.  1000-500mb thickness become quite low (though not exceptional) to bring many areas sub zero maxima through the rest of the week.  High pressure then builds into the North.

The runs over the last 24 hrs have chopped and changed their story - except the consistent ECMWF, which has always preferred a new low developing nr the Isle of Wight as opposed to the North Sea low moving SW (as was in the NAE 06Z)

The 12Z Runs have now fully come in, and there is excellent agreement on the development of a new low in the base of the sharpening upper trough coming SE across the UK tomorrow.  The showers / bands of snow now coming SE across Scotland will tend to become more organised with time into a more coherent band which will come South giving Snow inland and rain/sleet on the Coasts.   the FRont sucking into WBPT of greater than 3C as it comes into Wales and the SW, so Coastal areas seeing Rain/SLeet with snow above 300m or so as WBFL's rise. However some heavy snow is possible inland across N England esp the Pennines and Peaks along with Wales.

Later tomorrow the trough continues to dig in and engage and a new low starts to develop nr the Isle of Wight. The 12Z GFS, NAE, ECMWF all develop the low nr the Isle of Wight and then begin to spin it up - locking in PVA from the trough as it comes SE and deepening the low.  There is broad model consensus of a sub 998mb low off the Dorset/Hants Coast by 00Z Weds, with the milder air pushing into Coastal Areas further to the East of the low.  The positioning and development of the low is CRUCIAL to who gets Snow/Rain, Coastal areas to the East and SE of the Low will see higher WBFL's and WBPT >3C meaning Rain /Sleet with Snow above 300m or so (through penetrating to lower levels in any substained heavier precip) however areas to the North and West of the Low will see Snow, and this could become very heavy.  The low will be developing and under darkness with a falling barometer, the moisture will largely turn to snow anywhere to the North and West of the low. There is some discrepancy on the precip structure , the ECM along with the GFS has the heavier Snow further towards the Home COunties, towards Central England , whereas the NAE has it over CS England (NAE has over 25cm of snow nr Salisbury Plain by the End of Weds) whereas the GFS has 29cm over the SE Midlands.  Therefore the detail is unreliable and we need to see how things develop in the next 24hrs.  The fact that none of the 06Z Models produced anywhere near the extent of the snow means we need to see what the next 18Z Runs bring, however the fact the ECMWF has hinted at this for several days now (bar a couple of runs) gives credence to the idea that if the trough is sharp enough and slow enough then a new surface low can develop just off the coast as in the 12Z Runs.

The low only slowly pulls away on Wednesday with snow lasting through much of the day on the 12Z GM, NAE, GFS and ECM across the South of England, adding to already fallen amounts to give the accumulations mentioned.

Very, very cold further north over the Snow fields, and then on Thursday a brighter day with a cold ENE wind and further Snow showers across the East and SE, penetrating further inland than the models expect, giving another few cm in places.

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on January 04, 2010, 10:55:42 pm
Quote
Have you much in the way of snow in N Ireland at the moment?
Not here (North Antrim coast), lots of very sleety rain showers falling onto very cold ground, causing problems much worse than snow would. Strong bitterly cold wind too, the air temp is actually above freezing as the wind is off the "warm" sea but it's horrid compared with yesterday when it was still, dry & -5C.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 04, 2010, 11:14:59 pm
Snowing like mad here now huge flakes!! It started off wet sleet initially but only for a minute or so, about a centimeter already after 15 minutes! ;D


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 04, 2010, 11:21:37 pm
Send it this way Paul, it's been a mix of rain, sleet and snow here, but mostly rain, and I suspect it's freezing rain which will be deadly on the roads later. Still waiting for the big snow though. Roads are going to be terrible on Tues morning.

Glad your'e getting the snow.  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 04, 2010, 11:51:52 pm
We have the heavier stuff here now, like a blizzard at times.

(http://i49.tinypic.com/34r69z4.png)

Snow Forecast Issued: 2010-01-04 20:25:00
Valid: 2010-01-04 23:00:00 - 2010-01-05 22:59:00

Regions Affected
All of the UK.

Synopsis

A complex situation arises for Tuesday. A front coming down from the North will give many a spell of moderate snow and a light covering for most. As this reaches the Midlands it looks like it will become very slow moving with the potential for some fairly significant accumulations. Behind all this will be plenty of snow showers with coastal areas most affected giving places further spells of moderate or heavy snow and local accumulations and again perhaps significant.

Coastal areas will probably see a mix ofrain sleet and maybe wet snow.

Icy roads will be a problem for many so leave extra time for journeys. Transport disruption is likely particularly where snow hits rush hour peaks and where the snow is slow moving.

Later on in the evening is the potential for a significant event but alot of uncertainity remains. Much of Central Southern England and into the Midlands could see some prolonged heavy snowfall giving large accumulations with 5-15cm likely over a wide area. Upto 30cm is possible over the hills. However much could still change so stay tuned for local forecasts on this event.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 05, 2010, 12:05:44 am
Good stuff Martin is it sticking with you?  Its seems to be here although im worried all this cloud cover will raise temperatures enough to start a thaw before more snow arrives tonight/tomorrow.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 05, 2010, 12:27:57 am
Great snowy pictures Martin!

The sky has clouded over for me now, I could see the moon a couple of hours ago.  It's certainly moving down on the radar, and if the latest forecasts are accurate then potentially quite a dusting of snow awaits me over the next 24 hours.  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 05, 2010, 12:31:13 am
Thanks Mark!! - I hope you get your own snow pics soon with that lot of white stuff heading your way  :)

It's just spitting the odd snow flake here, nothing much on the ground other than what was there before, looks very dangerous and wet here, clouds seem to be messing with the temp drop but hopefully that will clear away later. Heard reports of heavy snow in Belfast and Maghaberry area. Looks like W areas of NI will get the most tonight, however anywhere could get it, the TV forecasts didn't seem keen on us getting much  >:(.

E areas of Ireland could be in the best place, Tues, for snow, as for mainland Britain...could be serious stuff on the way


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 05, 2010, 12:33:37 am
Back to thick heavy snow here!! - looking good, hope it lasts


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Padraig OBrien on January 05, 2010, 01:29:52 am
Hi might get my first major snow of this season on the way tomorow or later half about  an inch of ice and snow and the place is lethal


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 05, 2010, 03:52:09 am
Good heavy snow showers here during the early morning hours, very beautiful.

ESTOFEX have a t-storm forecast for parts of Ireland valid Tues

http://www.estofex.org/


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 05, 2010, 10:30:44 am
Pretty cold, -20C here last night, dewpoint -23C. Since early morning the sky became cloudy, temperature is quickly rising, now is already -11C. By the way, it was -30C last night in extreme northern Ukraine, now that's really cold!  :o


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 05, 2010, 12:40:21 pm
NATIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WARNING SERVICE
EMERGENCY Flash Warning of
- Very Heavy Snowfall
For the following areas
- Dorset (Severe)
- Hampshire (Severe)
- Oxfordshire (Severe)
- Southampton (Severe)
- Swindon (Severe)
- W Berkshire (Severe)
- Wiltshire (Severe)
There is a high risk of an extreme weather event affecting parts of Southern England this evening and overnight. A period of exceptionally heavy snowfall is expected with accumulations of 15-30 cm and perhaps in excess of 40 cm. This is expected to cause widespread disruption to the transport network and could lead to problems with power supplies. The public are advised to take extreme care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice on traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads.

Issued by the Met Office at 11:35 on Tuesday, 05th January 2010
Valid from 20:00 on Tuesday, 05th January 2010  until 11:00 on Wednesday, 06th January 2010
For enquiries regarding this warning - please contact the Met Office customer centre
- Phone: 0870 900 0100
- Fax : 0870 900 5050
- Email: enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 05, 2010, 02:58:50 pm
Well i've finally got some snow!  :)

Got to work today and by about 9am the heavy band of snow moving south passed over us, dropped about 2-4".  By 11am they'd sent everybody home.   It's actually not melting here for a change, even larger roads are quite slushy.  I've got my eye on the rainfall radar though, the next 24hrs could have quite a bit more snow or no more at all...  It's been snowing lightly on and off since the main band came through.

Those are some pretty cold temps btw Roman!  :o


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 05, 2010, 07:55:20 pm
Nice one Mark  :), snowing here at the mom.


19Z Update

Developments now taking shape as the strong upper trough comes SE and low pressure begins to develop along it.   Upper  circulation centre is tracking south nr Sea Area Lundy and is bringing more Sleet / Hail and Snow onshore across the SW.  Elsewhere the Barometer is falling and and that Low pressure is developing in Sea Area Portland around 999mbs.  The Frontal Structure is beginning to get more organised and its becoming more transparent as to the evolution.  The front coming south across N England and N Wales is effectively going to merge with the southern frontal zone and will essentially develop into a curled occlusion type structure over the next 6 hrs.  This rotating ENE in the South and drawing south across Wales, West Midlands to eventually become more ENE/WSW with time. 

Warmer air and assoc higher WBPT and WBFL's have been drawn NE ahead of the front - but away from the coasts the precip is heavy enough for snow to penetrate after a short while. Heavy Snow now occuring across Inland Hampshire and towards Surrey and Berkshire. This pushing NE towards London and the HOme COunties this evening and tonight where the ECM and GFS now indicate the heaviest snow will occur. 

Matching Radar to Model expectations indicates the T+6 frame from the NAE is OK as is the ECM and GFS, therefore there is reasonable confidence in the forecast tonight.  The front psuhing NE and also developing and revolving around to become more arc shaped overnight from Bristol to Oxford to the Chilterns to Sussex.  Parts of CS England incl Dorset now look likely to miss most of the activity tonight,  though we need to keep a careful eye on Radar as further bands develop and also exactly where the low pressure develops. Heaviest Snowfall around 20-30cm from Surrey, Berks into Bucks and the Chilterns, this includes the M4, M3, M40 corridors i highlighted this morning.

During tomorrow the low retreats south and the band which forms and pushes into the M4 corridor will push SSE and at the same time, further convergence type activity will form over the Channel and push NW towards the South Coast,  Models are keen to keep Snow going through much of tomorrow in Southern and CS England, though the EcM just seen is far less keen on this and prefers to fizzle the front out over Southern England without the frictional convergence zone boosting precip amounts.   It would be interesting to see the new High Res 16KM ECWMF's take on this...

Definately a very noteworthy Snow event developing over Southern England with many areas seeing 5-10cm and some places seeing 20-30cm, Areas west of London seeing the highest totals most likely.

More Snow comes into the East on Thursday assoc with another low.

The Latest ECMWF keeps the cold weather going for at least the next 10 days and the UKMO GM is equally blocked right through to day 6.  The GFS has a very different pressure pattern over the Western Atlantic which seems to impact things beyond day 5

The ECM has further heavy Snow at times over various parts of the UK right through the next 10 days...

Tomorrow morning starts with the Snow across The home COunties

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 05, 2010, 08:29:00 pm
Thanks for the update Martin.

Snowing quite steadily for me at the moment, and has been for several hours, about 6" lying now.  The more major roads are starting to snow over despite gritting, sideroads are soft, lying snow with people struggling to pass.  The 'snow line' has phoned me to say school is closed tomorrow (wahay!!) so I feel a later than usual nights on the cards to monitor the snows progress.  Looking at the rainfall radar and how this low pressure is developing I feel there's a bit more snow to come for me yet.  Not necessarily everyone will share my opinion, but it's nice to have some proper wintry weather.  ;)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 05, 2010, 09:08:23 pm
I fully agree with you Mark, many are fed up with it but I love every min of it, feels like the way a Winter should be. There are no signs of ending on the models any time soon either  :)

Met O Severe weather warnings out for Wed

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northwest and Southwest England and Wales during Wednesday.

Widespread icy roads and pavements are expected during Wednesday.

Issued at: 1401 Tue 5 Jan


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 05, 2010, 09:31:31 pm
Here's one of the minor roads here today, between Maghera and Tobermore, compacted ice concealed by a dusting of snow, 5mph was required to drive along it, nothing more or else.

(http://i49.tinypic.com/293kg1f.jpg)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 06, 2010, 03:17:16 pm
Big snow storm with thunder and lightning being reported in SE Ireland area for the last few hours!

Coastguards reported two 600m high waterspouts over the coast of Britain this morning.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 06, 2010, 05:28:11 pm
Lough Fea has frozen solid and people are driving across it in quads and CARS!, police are guarding it to prevent any deaths. Check out front page of Newsletter. Would love to get up there for photo opps!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 06, 2010, 07:04:24 pm
Just seen that on newsline there Martin, thats amazing although driving on it is pure madness I think. Wonder how thick the ice is.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 06, 2010, 07:14:05 pm
Woke up this morning to a steady 6" of snow everywhere.  Some early morning showers topped up accumulations, then, around midday the front passed south revealing beautifully clear skies - temperatures also fell and have been below freezing pretty much all day.  A lack of any gritting has meant other than tyre tracks the roads and pavements are in exactly state as they were first thing.  Sub zero temperatures are freezing it solid now which means tomorrow morning is going to be a skid pan.  We had over 1000 schools closed in the midlands today and i'm just wondering whether they will make the call to open tomorrow...  

Anybody got any heads up on whats supposed to be happening on sunday regards more snow?  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Padraig OBrien on January 06, 2010, 07:39:01 pm
Had Thundersnow today was great 5 inches snow lying here now -6.4c


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 06, 2010, 07:41:39 pm
Dont know Mark, just that theres a weather watch issued for N.Ireland, Wales, Mid and south England for sunday.  About an inch of lying snow here, had a few flurries last night but nothing today clear skies and hardly above freezing all day, brutal cold tonight maybe -10 possible!!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: JohnC on January 06, 2010, 08:40:24 pm
 Here in Gloucester  we got our first snowfall in this period last night and we woke up to 3.5 inches this morning.Tonight we're due to have  -5/6 C. Mind you they think the north of Scotland may get to -20C  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 06, 2010, 09:11:28 pm
Thanks for all the updates guys on what's happening in your parts of the country.

I seen the BBC NI coverage today and it's still hard to believe they are doing that, I think it's asking for death, that's a fairly deep Lough (I walk around it on a reg basis), it slants away off at the shore and drops in depth very quickly, if someone broke through it they would most certainly die, sadly, that's what's going to happen if people continue to mess with it, walking on it is bad enough, but driving... -  :o

What about the guy ice fishing? lol

Upgrade for Sunday, Met O have severe weather warnings out for NI and mainland Britain for heavy snow, at first I was confused because GFS didn't show any for NI, it's now been updated, check the precip type here....(click arrows to go forward in time)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

According to this netweather GFS, much of Ireland and Britain will get heavy snow on Sun, it will be interesting to see how this actually works out. Parts of S and E Ireland may get as much snow as England today, if it happens then the country will come to a stand still again!. Trying not to get excited about it until closer to the weekend.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 06, 2010, 09:13:00 pm
Oh yea I forgot, - the freezing temps and wind will create a wind  hill of - 20 C over the weekend for N Britain  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 06, 2010, 09:22:27 pm
19Z Update

The last of the Last nights Low pressure is now finally easing from the SE, and should be largely clear of the SE by Midnight.  The UK is then in a firmly blocked scenario.  An upper and surface high remains over Greenland.  A weak low is moving south through the developing ridge  (currently nr 62N 10W), this low coming South and reinforcing the block as high pressure then establishes itself to the North of the UK into Scandinavia as a new upper high develops nr the Faeroes.  The sharp upper trough currently stretching from Scandinavia to France will disrupt over the next 72 hrs with a cut off upper level low becoming slow moving over Southern Europe with an extension towards the British Isles.  OVer the Weekend a shortwave comes SW into the western end of this cutoff low and extends west forming a new cutoff low to the south of the UK with a surface inflexion across the southern British ISles bringing more snow.

The trend into next week is for less cold air to advect across the UK at least aloft, though with the lower level airmass likely to be coming from the continent, its likely to remain chilly to say the least.

Of more immediete concern are the constant snow showers streaming into NE England and the Polar Low type feature (not a true Polar Low) coming west across the North Sea, models indicate further persistent Snow showers coming into NE England tonight giving (another!) 10-15cm in places, as contour heights build we will gradually see a slow reduction.

The low over German Bight will comes west then SWto cross East Anglia and the SE later tomorrow and then relax west through the Eastern Channel into Friday.  Models will not advect the convection inland far enough, therefore further Snow sHowers coming into East Anlgia and SE England later tomorrow, A very cold and icy night first with snow freezing quite hard overnight tonight.   Snow Showers coming into the SE on Friday and extending west at times giving another several cms in the east and lesser amounts inland.  However largely dry now for the next few days across SW England , Wales, NW England, Midlands with sunshine by day and harsh frosts overnight.  its really the East and SE for any snow over the next 72hrs.

Late on Sat, into Sunday developments become complex, but I am glad to see more agreement between the GFS, ECM and UKMO GM in developing the new upper level low to the SOuth with a surface weakness moving west. This instability spreads snow into Southern England on Sunday and north into Wales, the SW and the Midlands into Sunday night. Higher WBFL's coming into the SE and East Anglia meaning more of a mix of rain/sleet and snow here with windward coasts likely to see more liquid precip, however inland we will see Snow with further possible significant accumulations coming North.

INto next week and GFS and UKMO have low pressure ganging up to the SW of the UK, the GFS taking this NE and allowing milder air into the UK, however the 12Z ECM remains firmly blocked with a low running east over N France threatening more problems (though airmass is generally less cold but still negative dewpoints inland) with high pressure remaining firmly in change to the north of the UK right out to t+240.  The GFS Ensemble was more mixed with a scattergun of solutions portrayed after the 14th ...

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 06, 2010, 09:44:08 pm
Yeah ice fishing in N.Ireland! and he was using an axe to break the ice :o-nows theres a guy looking for trouble.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 06, 2010, 11:08:51 pm
Gorgeous snow falling here now.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Padraig OBrien on January 06, 2010, 11:13:28 pm
-12c here now coldest ive ever seen here


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 06, 2010, 11:51:50 pm
Awesome Padraig!!

It is freezing tonight, I must keep an eye on the temp here, I would like to beat my record of - 10 on Christmas morning.

GFS update is giving snow for Ireland from Sun to Tues, some places it will be almost non-stop!

There's an avalanche warning out for the mountains of Ireland - first time I've ever heard of that!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 07, 2010, 12:08:56 am
Here's the nutters on Lough Fea

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqE8b5qdYPE


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 07, 2010, 12:26:34 am
That video just makes me angry, looks like kids on the quads, with adults watching them-it only takes one area of thinner ice and disaster-Stupid >:(


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 07, 2010, 01:24:33 am
I agree 100% with you Paul, the parents in this country make me sick!

A new temp record, - 15 C in Ireland  after 01.00 :o


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 07, 2010, 01:32:51 am
Ive been monitoring these snow showers coming off the north coast there getting 20-30miles inland and then just dissipating, im at least 50 miles in and have seen no action yet.    If those models come off for Sun/mon Martin, Ireland could get some dumping. Say no more might jinx it :-X


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 07, 2010, 01:42:09 am
I'm getting the flank of them here, more snow here as I write this, the temp is deadly cold too, even with the cloud cover. I can only imagine what it will drop to before dawn if - 15 C is being recorded already.

Fingers crossed for Sun, Mon, Tues - don't want to jink it either. Models don't show heavy snow (they might be wrong) just light to moderate, however it is long duration so could gather up nicely. Maybe time to start posting snow charts from the models tommorow. We certainly are overdue a big snowfall.

My Aunt informs me, who lives beside Slieve Gallion, that people have been sking down the mountain over the weekend -  another missed photo opp.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 07, 2010, 01:54:46 am
I know what you mean I haven't been getting out nearly as much as Id like to take photographs, but thats gonna change this weekend, this kind of event might not come around for a long time again :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Padraig OBrien on January 07, 2010, 02:04:47 am
well its shivering cold here low of -12.4c here the coldest ive ever witnessed record was broken to the south of me of -15.2c just unreal and its just 2am  when you step outside the cold just cuts your breath short stings as well 4 -5 inches of snow on ground looking forward to Sunday as i live in the east of ROI


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 07, 2010, 02:09:14 am
Nice one Padraig what a day for you down there with good snow and record temps!! :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 07, 2010, 03:55:04 am
Brilliant snow fall currently ongoing over Maghera during early morning hours, it's been falling for 2 hrs and is still falling, already 3" everywhere, entire country is white, if it wasn't for the hedges it would be difficult to tell where the roads ended and the fields began. Looks amazing at night and much more substantial than forecast, could be great photo opps first light!. Looks rubbish on radar but visual it's a stunning spectacle.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 07, 2010, 08:25:04 am
Morning folks! :)

Well not quite as chilly down here as you have in Northern Ireland - the mercury on my thermometer is saying -8c, which, for me in a sub urban location is pretty darn cold!

Looks like pretty much all the schools are going to stay shut again round here again today - late last night the list of schools closed today was growing, then just after 7 I got the phone call to say our school was going to stay shut today, and the chances are it will remain shut tomorrow...  It's a peculiar situation with the school closures - back in the day, regardless of weather schools would remain open.  However since then society has changed, we live in a litigious world - last winter we had a parent sue the school (and won) as their child had fallen over on the snow / ice - no malice or anything untoward, just a simple winter slip.  I have friends who work in other local schools and this sort of thing is far from an isolated incident...  With 'blame and claim' adverts plastered all over the media this becomes more and more common...

The other big issue with the school closures round here is the lack of salt.  As you'll no doubt be aware it's only the major 'A' roads that are getting griited which means the schools that are tucked away off the main road get no clearing...  The there's the school grounds themselves - it's only 5-10 years ago I remember the grit lorry, when the weather was bad, would pull onto the school site and grit the car park, access road and playground if accessible - all of which obviouslly paid a big part in keeping schools open.  This now, however, is a thing of the past.  I know our school has (had) about half a dozen bags of rocksalt, which just isn't enough tbh...

I have a slim chance today of a few wintry flurries later in the day, but I think it's safe to say the next main event we have to look forward to is sundays weather.  With little or no thaw likely to occur any precipitation that falls is likely to stick and freeze, so I suspect I may be in a similar situation come monday morning...

I find it curious to see how we will cope with this weather if it continues as is throughout the season.  The media is already doing it's 'coldest spell since 1981' headlines, and now is starting to make reference to the winter of 62/62 - where winter started with snowfall in december and abating in march...  Well if you look back at the long range forecasts for this winter from autumn last year, the forecast is playing out pretty much exactly as they said it would - if anything actually colder than forecast...  Well looking at the forecast for the winter as a whole it looks like january and february could well be the coldest months, in which case there is no immediate end to the winter freeze - yes, there may be periods where the Atlantic pushes milder air in, but if you believe the forecast the cold air is going to be the winner long term.  I wonder how we will cope?  Will make for an intersting season ;)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 07, 2010, 11:41:57 am
Brrr!  Just shy of midday here and a quick check of my thermometer shows a rather chilly -4c!  :o


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: JohnC on January 07, 2010, 11:46:39 am
The temperature in Manchester reached -18C overnight - in Scotland that wouldn't surprise me in the far north or high up in the Highlands but Manchester ??. The roads here are covered in ice and the cars are moving very slowly.

Ref. the viseo I wonder if the Local Authority have tested the ice depth,they should take readings ..There are so many warnings about going onto the iced ponds and lakes but as we see people still do it.It would do my head in having people walking infront of my video camera.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 07, 2010, 02:27:58 pm
Since yesterday the temperature here have risen from -10C to almost zero. After the snowfall last night, we have additional 10cm of snow covering (total amount is now 15cm).


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Padraig OBrien on January 07, 2010, 02:45:46 pm
reports coming in of 30 minute long sundog on east coast of ROI


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: scott86 on January 07, 2010, 03:37:03 pm
severe fog in the lisburn area, visibility <100m. Hasnt shifted all day!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: scott86 on January 07, 2010, 04:35:08 pm
(http://i47.tinypic.com/ff6ako.jpg)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 07, 2010, 05:42:02 pm
That looks very cold and grey scott!

Schools round here are going to be closed again tomorrow as all the side roads are ice rinks.  They're going to review the situation for monday...  This could be quite interesting as I was scoffed at whilst at work on monday when I suggested we could have some interesting weather for tuesday, I was told fridays weather was of more concern - hmmmm. Tomorrow looks like another cold day, maybe an odd snow shower and a bit greyer but that's it.  Sunday, for England, has got some potential I think - more towards the south is my thoughts, I suspect the west midlands may be a bit too far north, but we shall see!  ::)

Just had a look at the thermometer, -8c at 17.30 - ouch!  ::)  I'm off to the pub later so will check it again midnight-ish to see how much it has fallen.  News is announcing unconfirmed reports of temperatures of -20c in parts of wales last night...

What a fantastic start to winter!!!  ;D


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 07, 2010, 06:19:40 pm
That's a fabulous report there - enjoyed reading it, thanks very much.  :)

Another amazing day here, frigid temps, 3-4" of snow everywhere and freezing fog causing whiteout conditions. It looks incredible over Maghera. BBC Newsline really got the forecast wrong big time last night.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 07, 2010, 07:33:28 pm
Very bad freezing fog here too, unbelievably cold all day but no snow showers here for the past few days. What about this possible snow for sun/mon has the situation changed for N.Ireland?? 


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 07, 2010, 07:39:52 pm
19.30ut and its -9c here! Brrr!

Have just come across this great article which explains why we're having the weather we are at the moment >>>

http://global-warming.accuweather.com/2010/01/very_strong_negative_arctic_os.html

Interestingly it also says the negative arctic oscillation we are experiencing is likely to persist throughout this winter season...  1963 anybody?  ;)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on January 07, 2010, 07:44:46 pm
Quote
but no snow showers here for the past few days
Mostly rain or sleet here but snow showers this morning. Clearance in cloud towards dusk coincided with onset of freezing fog.

Just off the phone to my brother (Peak District), they've been snowed in for several days, the road is covered by 1" of ice topped by 6" of snow, the grit bin is empty (used on the road, not stolen) & the council can't access to refill it. Temp -6C but clear.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: rjgjr on January 07, 2010, 07:52:25 pm
That's a great shot Scott. I can only sympathize with all of you and the cold, frigid weather you are experiencing there. Our weather on the West Coast of the States has been rain, with highs in the mid 50's and lows in the low 50's, kind of boring!!. Now the Upper Midwest gets a little more interesting with lows of 60-70 below zero with wind chill factor in North Dakota. I hope that all of you stay safe and warm!!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 07, 2010, 10:04:12 pm
Great image Scott!

Paul, GFS still going with widespread snow for Sun, Mon, Tues, will post charts later. Strangely BBC Newsline forecast today didn't go for snow on Sun for us...wierd.

Here's a short vid from today showing the snow and freezing fog in Maghera

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JM56yYNR_EU


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 07, 2010, 10:09:21 pm
19Z Update

UK Remains in a firmly blocked scenario this evening with a major polar trough extension stretching from the Arctic circle to Iberia.  An Omega block of high pressure persists in the Atlantic effectively blocking Atlantic systems from moving towards the UK.   Major North Atlantic Jet is way south nr 40N , where it will remain for the next several days.  The Atlantic ridge disrupting over the next 36hrs and developing a cutoff high nr the Faeroes with a surface inflexion lying from the Faeroes to Scandinavia.  The assoc deep layer trough will perform a complex disruption proces with a deep largely cutoff vortex forming over the Western Med with a trough extending NW towards the UK. a filament of vorticity and a NE Jet Streak coming SW to enhance this block with a new centre forming over NW FRance and heading WNW on Sunday and Monday...   High pressure becoming anchored over Scandinavia with time.  A bitterly cold easterly wind is likely to affect the UK over the weekend making it feel very raw. However with more cloud around the extreme overnight lows will become confined to Scotland.

Discussion

The North Sea vortex has come SW and is currently filling nr SE Kent.  SHowers are continuing to affect areas largely east of the Meridian with some heavy ones coming into Yorks and Kent at present - 2-5cm in places overnight.  Winds mostly offshore across London and the SE at present, however the situation over the next 24hrs becomes more straightforward with a ENE wind becoming established and becoming quite strong with a biting wind chill developing across the South and SE.  This wind allowing North Sea showers to come further inland across the SE, Winds allowing some weak ones to get as far as 1W in the Midlands and CS England, further minor accumulations in places.

Temps are going to become very low in places tonight, though temps in the SE more dependent on cloud and wind than last night - hence likely to be higher than last night. However across Scotland and the North of England winds are very light and temps are plunging. Temps -14C to -18C possible across Scotland tonight.  Whether the Magic Media -20C is breached is another question.

Saturday sees further Snow showers spreading inland across Central and Southern Parts giving another cm in places but more likely a dusting.  The Key theme for Sat is the strong ENE winds and increasing cloud cover giving lots of Snow grains and light snow showers.  It will feel bitterly cold in the East and South with the wind.  Sunnier further north, but bitterly cold.

We still have problems on Sunday and Monday.  The process which develops the potential snow is not straightforward, it seems to relate to an upper air disturbance forming over N France and drifting west, at the same time moisture at 700mbs or so drifts west assoc with frontal activity currently developing in assoc with the Mediterranean low pressure system, the developing upper level trough and low enhances this as it moves West over the South of England and N France.  The Questions are , How extensive, How much and How far north...  The 12Z GFS is less keen (as it generally has been) on much snow developing it has 1-4cm generally between 00Z sunday and 12Z monday across parts of England and Wales (excl the snow showers in the SE tomorrow) a few spots seeing a little more.  However both the UKMO GM and the ECM continue to produce more activity, UKMO having 5-7cm developing by 12Z Monday from East Wales down to CS England and Wessex.  ECM has a few spots with even higher totals.  Therefore confidence on this aspect remains quite low.  Winds easing in the south by Monday.

Into the Middle of next week - there is good agreement on low pressure moving NE towards Ireland and High pressure trenched in over Scandinavia with a very cold low level airmass in place across Britain and much of Northern Europe.  The 12Z GFS breaks this down easily, however its 06Z run didnt and frankly is all over the place with its ensemble after the 13th. The UKMO bring a front into ther SW and then shear it SE but this produces more snow in the SW, Wales  and Wessex with another 5cm in places by T+144. The ECM doesnt get precip much further than the SW before the Scandi High intensifies to over 1040mbs and infact has a 1050mb centre over Sweden by T+240, a easterly / COntinental flow persists across the UK. 

The ECM guidance remains largely consistent along with its ensemble.  It appears to be performing really quite well at the moment and I will be interested in seeing its performance once its resolution is increased even more (to 16KM) at the end of Jan.  It remains the clear leader in last 2 weeks performance stats

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 07, 2010, 10:28:04 pm
Yeah and I see that Met Office has lifted its warning for us for Sun ??? Great video there showing those extreme conditions in Maghera-a complete white-out all right!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: JohnC on January 07, 2010, 10:55:57 pm
That was a chilly walk you took us on,Martin, pretty bleak.  Poor old donkey, if I owned him I'd bring him in, I don't know how hardy they are.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Padraig OBrien on January 07, 2010, 11:41:18 pm
another extremely cold night here down to -11c now


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 08, 2010, 12:11:13 am
We could be in action for Mon and Tues though, will have to wait and see, looks like siginificant weather on the way for UK/Ireland one way or another.

John, I know what you mean, I feel sorry for that Donkey, it's been there day and night through this cold spell not to mention horses, I've seen them looking miserable in horrendous conditions at night and they are never brought in or even have a rug on. Very sad!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 08, 2010, 03:45:12 am
Tonight is the coldest night I've ever experienced in my life!. In the Maghera countryside there are pools of air with various dips in temp below the mean in various places, some of them actually hurt your face and affect your lungs. I touched a gate with a gloved hand and after 2-3 sec's it was frozen to the metal. Don't know actual temp but it's quite incredible - amazing to experience that here!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on January 08, 2010, 08:16:18 am
When it gets to about -20C you can actually hear your breath crackle as it freezes.

Amazingly the fog cleared here around 10pm, sky was mostly clear with 2-4/8 broken low cloud mostly in the North (over the sea). Very little wind. I was out all night observing & thanks to excellent clothing was actually slightly too warm ... Temp below -7C most of the night which is very unusual this close to the coast. Scope had 1-2mm of hoar frost away from the dew heater straps.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: scott86 on January 08, 2010, 11:56:51 am
Thanks for the comments on the image folks, alot clearer here today, going to take a walk down the lagan toepath today to get a few images, this time with several more layers of clothing! It hit -10 here last night, and it doesnt feel much warmer than that even now, took a step outside earlier and every breath just penetrates deep into your chest!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 08, 2010, 12:57:16 pm
I've just read on the  the forums that last night Ireland's temp dropped to just below - 20C!!!, average inland temp was between -11 and -12, Co. Carlow had - 16. The -20 came from far eastern areas of Ireland.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 08, 2010, 04:35:54 pm
Out and about today, Moyola River is partially frozen over in places, the river Grillagh is completely frozen solid. Nasty day time temps but the scenes are spectacular with snow, ice, and freezing fog, there are icicyles hanging from the roadsigns and traffic lights. My hands were that cold I could barely open the car door due to a few hours of photography. Loving this severe cold weather!

Brian, I agree, the sky here last night was breathtaking, the perfect Winter scene, even Sirius seemed much brighter than usual in the crisp air, then the rising orange Moon was the icing on the already frozen cake.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 08, 2010, 05:31:48 pm
last night Ireland's temp dropped to just below - 20C!!!, average inland temp was between -11 and -12
Wow, that must be pretty low for Ireland.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 08, 2010, 06:40:17 pm
I was in Omagh town today and sections of strule River are froze over, people were just staring at it from the bridge and taking photographs-ive never seen this river freeze over before. I took a drive up to Gortin lakes after that and was greeted with some beautiful scenes, the lakes are completely frozen with a layer of snow.      Temperatures are rocketing down here again with no fog the thermometer could hit -12 or lower!!

Beautiful scenes everywhere with frost and ice right up to the top of the trees-I love this weather and I remember back in November hoping we would get some proper winter weather-well mother nature delivered big time ;D ;D         On the downside I have to say its brutal sore on the heating oil.

Will Post some photos later.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 08, 2010, 06:45:44 pm
It's actually warmed up for me again last night and today.  1am this morning was recording -6c, this afternoon has got up to -2c.  It's -4c now.  Looking at the rainfall radar we get a light covering in a couple of hours.  Then, we look out to later in the weekend, seems to me everyones a bit short on the specifics and details of the event...   ???


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 08, 2010, 07:53:02 pm
I've checked the last night's temperatures in Europe, chilly areas are central Scandinavia (down to -43C) and Southern Ural (down to -37C). It seems to be just a matter of wind (baric gradient), whether the weather somewhere in mid-latitude Europe will be nearly melting (like now in Ukraine) or more like a 'true winter' (like you have there)  ;D

(...) sections of strule River are froze over, people were just staring at it from the bridge and taking photographs-ive never seen this river freeze over before.
Paul, it is always something to compare with. Here in Poltava, for example, Vorskla river (quite a big one) is frozen since mid-December (so I have forgot about it already). On the other hand, I have never seen in my life how it is to drive a car across the frozen river/lake, but I know in Russia it may be even a common job in winter, once I've seen on TV as heavy trucks (!) were driving across Baikal lake - that's impressive.  ;)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 08, 2010, 09:41:01 pm
Temperature here is falling slowly tonight - is -3c now.  We've just had a dusting of snow aswell, pelletal stuff rather than flakes.  It's done a decent job of covering the slushy main roads. 

It's cold when they're driving trucks on the lakes like that Roman.  Sounds like the Russian version of Ice Road Truckers to me  ;D  I know when I go to Iceland next month they'll be playing polo and riding round on horses on the City Pond in Reykjavik.   ::)
 


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: scott86 on January 08, 2010, 10:19:47 pm
Temperature in lisburn has just hit -9!!!!  Thick freezing fog taking hold aswell!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 08, 2010, 10:31:04 pm
It feels like that here too Scott, that's early in the night for a temp like that, maybe records will be broken before the night is over. It's another bad one here, we have the freezing fog too.

Here's vid from today, Moyola River in it with some ice, the rest are various scenes...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6gWdAKT0XA


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Tyler on January 08, 2010, 11:10:24 pm
Finally got some Sun optics while I had my camera! Extremely cold here the last week and a half, the low tonight is -28F !!!!! going to met up with Mike H and Chris tomorrow morning hoping for some cool river steam/fog ops. Here are some from yesterday...

(http://tonightssky.org/images/010710a.jpg)

http://tonightssky.org/images/010710b.jpg


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 08, 2010, 11:40:24 pm
Absolutely stunning Tyler!!!. I have been following you, Chris, and Mike on facebook (as you know) for the latest atmos images and have been blown away by the quality. Best of luck to all three of you for the next photo session, whether it be the Hill, or the Bend.

Congrats on SW by the way.  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 08, 2010, 11:47:34 pm
GFS showing snow showers moving across from the east Sat to Tues, after that it's back to sleet and rain.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 08, 2010, 11:59:03 pm
19Z Update

Analysis

On the 500mb Chart a broad deep layer trough persists from Northern Scandinavia to the Western Med.  A broad Omega Ridge of High Pressure located to the West of the UK ridging NE.  A weak upper air disturbance is moving South into N Scotland and a strip of Vorticity coming south on the western edge of the trough is enhancing precip across N England and now into the Midlands

OVer the coming 48hrs a cutoff upper high forms a quasi stationary upper block to the north of the UK with High pressure at the surface intensifying over Scandinavia and stretching from South of Iceland to NW Russia. A New low over the Med  is moving northeast.

Discussion

Strip of Vorticity coming SW within the western portion of the upper trough is enhancing precip coming south across Yorks into the Midlands.  Trajectories and 4KM Meso take this SSW , though appears to be somewhat more organised than the T+6 frame from the 12Z run.  Take this SSW towards SE Wales and Bristol area.  SHowers moving into the SE are organising into a shower train across Kent some heavier ones giving 10-15cm overnight  also similar amounts over the Yorks Moors and 1-6cm elsewhere

Temps very low already across most of the UK -5 to -14C already across many parts, cloud coming south across Scotland tonight likely to interfere with overnight lows and make them somewhat erratic, clearest skies across Southern Scotland tonight and Eskdalemuir is expected to be very cold tonight. Along with parts of Wales and NIreland.

Saturday sees snow showers dying back to the SE as the vorticity strip moves away to the west with sunny skies in places but clouding over slowly from the SE with a very strong ENE wind developing across Southern England, F7s off the Kent coast later tomorrow.  Bitterly cold feel to the day.

Tomorrow night the Snow Showers organising again as another weakness develops aloft.  The showers organising into bands to give 10-15cm later tomorrow and overnight across the Downs in Kent and Sussex.

Into Sunday and the development of a complex process of slight warm advection / upgliding aloft combining with a new developing upper low which breaks forward from the main continental vortex and moves west to the south of the UK. The two effects combining to produce extensive precip across the South.   The GFS has finally come on board with developing some more extensive snow - though its a little out of sync in terms of timing when compared with the UKMO GM and ECMWF also somewhat further north.   There is reasonable agreement from the UKMO and consistent guidance from the ECMWF for outbreaks of Snow to develop and extend WNW across England into Wales on Sunday and persisting into Monday across Wales and The SW.  Heavier falls possible in places esp inland from coasts where added Sea temps providing additional moisture input.  ECMWF has up to 10cm across parts of the SW and Wales (Eastern Upslopes) and 5-10cm over other areas.  Northern Limit is less far north in the ECM, UKMO than in the GFS. Snow dies out from the East during sunday but persists into the night across the SW and Wales into Monday.

Monday sees Snow slowly dying out from the ESE but remaining very cold in places esp over newly fallen snow.

Into the Middle of next week there are considerable "detail" problems in the models.  The GFS tries to bring a low into the SW and has an incursion of milder air into the far south before colder air pushes back in post T+144.  The UKMO model brings a low into the Channel before the low complex sinks south and a SE is kept across most parts.  The ECM is rather strange tonight, it brings a low up the channel around T+102/T+108 crosses the far SE and into the Southern North Sea.  This would produce a sig amount of snow across most of England. A further low then comes into the SW around T+144, but this extends NE and introduces less cold air across the South but it remains cold in the North with further bands of rain pushing into the SOuth and turning to Snow across Northern England and Scotland. All the time high pressure persists across Scandinavia.

The variety of solutions for Mid next week onwards make any detail largely impossible to predict, but the general detail i feel remains the same, Low pressure coming increasingly close to the SW and South threatening Snow but also increasing the potential for less cold air to start to move north.  How quickly it does this and in what shape / form .. well the jury is still out on that one. .. 

TOI 19.29

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on January 09, 2010, 03:39:58 am
The weather is changing! I've no idea what it's changing to & tonight is superficially very similar to last night, but we now appear to be flirting with the edge of a STRONG jet stream - the jet stream smearing which was absent last night & yesterday eveing (8th) is back with a vengance, stars smeared to blurred discs ~15 arc sec in diameter, Mars is just an undiffirentiated smear whereas last night it was showing considerable detail & sharply too though with considerable boiling.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: rjgjr on January 09, 2010, 05:36:29 am
Great shot Tyler, I saw the others on your website. It's been mighty cold on the Plains!! Be safe!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 09, 2010, 08:41:00 am
Great images Tyler!  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: scott86 on January 09, 2010, 09:37:07 am
A fresh dusting of snow in Lisburn this morning which wasnt even forecast  :D
(http://i47.tinypic.com/vfhzdk.jpg)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 09, 2010, 01:15:40 pm
Nice image Scott, we got another dusting here. Things should get interesting soon. Here's the latest from the UKWW

11Z Update

An interesting week ahead !, Battle Lines drawn for the UK as fronts attempt to usher in milder Atlantic Weather.  However Large Dome of Cold low level air will not be moved easily and we can expect significant model errors in the coming week.  (Not helped by significant warming of the upper levels which allows models to return to a more mobile pattern more easily, it needs correct modelling of the lowest 150-180mbs of the atmosphere to predict the exact speed of the milder weather.  Push of Milder air towards the SW is driven by an extremely strong (over 200Knt Atlantic JEt Core) which leaves the Eastern Seaboard early next week and comes towards the European Sector.  This Jet Core essentially the driver for the Atlantic to give itself a push into the large European Block.  Hence the Battle Lines are drawn.  Data from the 00Z/06Z Model Suites indicates there are already significant phase differences over the Atlantic as early as T+60 which go on an enlarge and generate large discrepancies in the models by T+96/120 over NW Europe.   

The Operational GFS, ECMWF, and UKMO are at odds with the their Ensemble output in suggesting a rather quicker return of the Milder air. Climatologically speaking a slower breakdown is suggested. The ECM continues to spin a low along the Channel and into the far SE, the Holland Ensembles from the EPS suggest this is not favoured by the EPS, and the GFS Postage Stamps indicate a wide variety of timings and disruptions for the trough approaching the SW (highlighting the considerable uncertainty from Tues onwards)

There is potential for some very heavy snow initially in the SW and inland Southern England and then more generally across the Midlands and Northern England into Scotland.  This is not good news for many people and whilst most reading this will be encouraging of more snow it should be remembered that significant falls of more snow across many central and northern areas could bring massive disruption.  There is some EPS support for some less cold air to make it into the SW midweek and then to some other southern coastal counties but limit northward after that is massively questionable at this stage. 

Now back to the short term - We have snow showers in NE England - these giving 1-4cm in places, Rain/Sleet and Snow crossing N Ireland and Snow developing across Kent and East Sussex.  The Wind is picking up across the SE and this is driving modified by SST airmass into Eastern and SE Coastal areas - hence precip type of rain/sleet is possible on exposed coastal strips - elsewhere WBFL's suggest all precip inland will be of Snow.  The snow drier and less wet than previous falls and tending to accumulate more rapidly. 1:15 is prob a good idea for comparison of water equivs (i.e 1mm of of rain gives 1.5cm of Snow)

However this gives somewhat a worrying problem in the SE, as the higher resolution models indicate a persistent line of Snow developing just SE of Greater london through the rest of today, lasting through tonight with up to 14mm given a gridpoint on the M25/M20 Junction area, this could equite to around 20cm of snow, the line stretches just SE of London down to Brighton with 7-20cm possible in this zone over the next 24hrs. The snow a mix of Convective and Dynamic and likely to lead to significant disruption in the SE if it occurs.  THe NAE has been quite persistent with the idea so it needs to watched carefully.

Elsewhere Showers streaming into NE England are penetrating at times into the Midlands and EAst Wales giving a dusting.  Temps are stiill well below zero in many places, but the breeze and some sunshine is helping to push temps above zero (just) in parts of the South and coastal areas elsewhere

Over the COntinent clouds are increasing and a complex interaction is beginning to occur as a developing upper low and upper fronts develop (these essentially through isentropic upgliding of warmer air which pushed north from the Med, crossed the ALps and is now elevated, 1000-500mb thickness vlaues reflecting this but 1000-900mb thickness values largely unchanged insdicating the warming is now well elevated. Outbreaks of Snow are developing and are pushing NW and developing at the same time.  Outbreaks of Light snow covering much of the SE by tomorrow morning and extending WNW during the day - There remains considerable uncertainty in this aspect, GFS continues to highlight areas further north whereas ECMWF prefers more southern parts, hence there remains question marks.  However after considering all output i have drafted a potential snow accumulation map for the next 48hrs across England and Wales and N Ireland.  These are estimates and there is considerable uncertainty in the detail.  The Snow looks set to transfer WNW during the coming 48hrs before slowly dying out on Monday. UPslopes of Wales, Eastern Pennines and Dartmoor likely favoured - esp as the wind veers more east from its NE.  Convective elements forming in the English Channel with a frictional convergence zone indicated offshore and moving into the SOuth Hams and Dartmoor regions of Devon and perhaps fringing southcoasts elsewhere  depending on the exact locations of the convergence.  A quieter interlude then later Monday into Early Tues before the potential for BIG problems to move towards the SW...

A Final point to note - whilst NW Europe remains cold - its unusually warm over the SE Med - Israel, N Egypt, Cyprus enjoying very warm weather whilst parts of Southern Spain, Gibraltar and parts of Italy and S France are very, very Wet.  Infact its been one of the rainiest ends to DEcember and starts to Jan in Southern and SW Iberia for a good many years.

Fig 1 - Expected Snowfalls - UK over the next 48hrs.

(http://i47.tinypic.com/sfw9dg.jpg)

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 09, 2010, 03:02:35 pm
UK/Ireland precip-type charts from Sun-Tues from Netweather GFS. Lots of uncertainty but it does look interesting. Back to sleet and rain after Tues so enjoy it while you can, further snow is possible later in the week in Britain.

(http://i48.tinypic.com/1yoo5d.jpg)

(http://i47.tinypic.com/688pyh.jpg)

(http://i46.tinypic.com/2da0w1.jpg)

(http://i49.tinypic.com/313t4kx.jpg)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 09, 2010, 04:51:58 pm
UKWW....

FORECAST FOR Monday 11th January- Sunday 17th January 2010

ISSUED 9th January 1215Z

SPECIAL NOTE/WARNING REGARDING POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE PERIOD

There is likely to be further significant snow at times in places esp E Wales, the English Midlands & parts of the north this week, drifting at times in strong winds, along with icy roads, some severe frosts & freezing fog patches. Severe SE’ly gales may affect the SW & W Wales on Tuesday for a time.
Travelling conditions are likely to be difficult and possibly dangerous at times. If in doubt about your travel then postpone or cancel it. Listen to local weather updates on the radio for up to date information, road closures etc. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WEEKLY SUMMARY 

Another cold or very cold week to come weatherwise for most and potentially another wintry one too for many areas but this week more especially in the central parts of the UK, though by later in the week and the weekend another easterly flow may keep it drier though still cold though the east & SE may become cloudier and see further sleet showers at times later on and the far west and SW remain milder with outbreaks of rain. 

Monday 11th looks likely to see an easterly flow across most areas with high pressure to the north of the UK and weak low pressure to the south. A slight-moderate early frost in the Highlands, with icy patches on roads, some mist and fog or freezing fog patches about to along with a lot of low cloud. Light sleet or snow outbreaks for many across England & Wales, more likely rain though in the south and south west. Some local accumulations, mainly over hills. A moderate frost & icy patches reforming by evening in the Highlands. Temperatures should stay well below average at -1C to +2C in most areas today and only -1 to -3C in the Highlands but perhaps up to 4-7C in the far SW and near some north western coasts too. 

Tuesday 12th will probably see low pressure to the south west develop and push fronts slowly NE across the SW & W Wales by morning as a strong SE’ly flow develops in the SW and W Wales with severe gales on coasts and exposed spots for a time. A cloudy night for many though with further outbreaks of sleet or snow and a slight frost along with locally mist and fog patches too, esp over high ground. A slight-moderate frost in the Highlands; icy patches and some freezing mist patches & low cloud about in Scotland. The frost may be severe locally in some prone glens in the Highlands. By evening the rain band lying across central southern parts of England, central Wales and NW England and it may well turn increasingly to sleet & snow here for a time. There may be some accumulations, esp over high ground with drifting in strong SE’ly winds. Wintry outbreaks still affecting the north & Highland areas of Scotland. However another slight frost developing for inland areas of the northern UK, with icy patches. Temperatures generally staying well below average at 0 to +2C but only -2C in the Highlands, though up to 3-5C in the southwest and S Wales & along the south coast and 7-9C in the far SW.

Wednesday 13th looks to see low pressure to the south and SW with high pressure over Scandinavia with a moderate SE'ly flow across the UK. A weakening band of rain sleet and snow continuing still overnight and by day across western & some central areas, still heavy at times with more snow accumulating in places and drifting too, mainly over hills. The far south and SW staying rather drier after early rain or sleet clears away. Some  sunshine after an early slight-moderate frost with icy patches about in the far north and another moderate-severe frost soon setting in after dusk inland here.  Temperatures feeling cold at -1C to 2C generally though maybe up to 4- 7C for a time in the far west & NW coasts and through the SW, with 9C in Cornwall. 


Thursday 14th looks likely to see another low develop to the SW in Biscay but moving ESE so only allowing its fronts to nudge into the SW and far south again. A strengthening ESE’ly flow for most further north, abating later. A slight-moderate frost at first away from coasts with icy patches and freezing mist or fog patches about in N and Highland Scotland but cloudier with sleety outbreaks further south down through into northern England, snow over hills, some further accumulations here. Cloudy and murky with light or moderate rain at times in the far south west, maybe some sleet & snow over hills in S Wales and central southern England. Another cold raw day for most, max temperatures about -1C to 2C but maybe 3-5C in the far west, near southern coasts and up to 7-9C again in the SW.     

Friday 15th seems on the whole to see little change as low pressure lies to the south or SE and high pressure over to the NE. A lot of low cloud about for most especially over high ground with outbreaks of mainly light rain & sleet with hill snow. The slightly milder weather will struggle to work very far NE but as the flow comes off the warmer North Sea the east will be milder with drizzle at times too. A few sleet or snow outbreaks still over higher ground though, such as the North York Moors but drying up from the east later as colder air moves west.  More low cloud and fog patches will likely return to many inland central and western areas across the UK by the evening.  Temperatures generally a rather cold 0-3C by day for most though up to 4-5C around the eastern and SE coastal counties with 6-9C in the far west and SW but only up to -2C over the Highlands.   

Saturday 16th and Sunday 17th seems likely to see a colder ESE ‘ly flow develop again for most parts with high pressure still up to the northeast and low pressure to the west or SW.  Some night frost in places away from east coasts, generally only as low as -2C but the Highlands may see as low as -7C. Near eastern coasts and in the SE a lot of cloud and some showery outbreaks likely through Saturday and into Sunday, with the risk of sleet on high ground still. In the west and central parts brighter with weak sunny periods but always the risk of some rain I the extreme west and SW. Temperatures over the weekend by day will likely be fairly cold for most areas at 1C to 3C, possibly only -2C in the Highlands but more like 5-8C in the SW and locally 10C in Cornwall.   

FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK

 *Some freezing fog patches, mist and low cloud inland through the week & weekend more esp in the north 
*Risk of moderate or heavy snow in places, esp in central & northern areas but the SE, south of England & Midlands is at risk at times too, probably more esp over hills until midweek.   
*Risk of drifting snow in strong E-SE winds at times, more esp where large accumulations still lie.
*Some moderate frosts overnight in the north, locally severe in the Highlands glens still with icy patches at times esp where there's a lot of surface snow and frozen water
*Avalanche risk in places in mountains if milder air moves in
*Icy lakes & ponds may melt or re-freeze and be hazardous

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate-high becoming moderate-poor by Thursday
-----
Dave Wiseman
UKww Executive/C & M Manager/Warnings team


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 09, 2010, 06:13:26 pm
This is becoming a famous image, it was captured by an orbiting Sat on Jan 7th and snows the entire UK covered in Ice similar to Greenland. It has amazing detail. Credit: NASA

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/2010007-0107/GreatBritain.A2010007.1150.250m.jpg


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 09, 2010, 06:51:43 pm
Exellent!  That's going to become an iconic image for the UK for this winter.   Thanks for posting a hi-res one martin ;)

The forecast for the next week or so isn't good!  It's going to make for quite an interesting spell of weather watching.

Today has been isolated snow flurries, giving everywhere a light dusting again, temp around -2c.  Probably somemore snow flurries / showers coming in tonight, the temp now is -4c.  Went on a bit of a drive about this morning, all the main roads are clear round here now, however side / minor roads are treacherous with an inch thick layer of compacted snow that is slowly but surely turning to ice.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 09, 2010, 06:55:23 pm
Next week really does look interesting, Met O have weather warnings out as far as Wed now for distruptive snow. Latest models are not going for an Atlantic break down either - very interesting!

Here's a BBC Newsline vid clip showing some of the Loughs frozen over in N. Ireland...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8450274.stm

Somesone sent me images today of the River Bann complete frozen over, there where people walking on it.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 09, 2010, 07:29:24 pm
Here's the Grillagh River outside Maghera on Jan 8th before sunset, it was frozen completely. Looked great with the low Sun and freezing fog.

(http://i45.tinypic.com/211t84j.jpg)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 09, 2010, 08:27:01 pm
Great stuf Martin!  ;) ;)

Just to jump forward a month or 3 here temporarily, when all this ice / snow finally does melt proper I have a feeling the EA will have flood watches out.  However, before then is going to be VERY interesting  8)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 09, 2010, 08:43:32 pm
Me too Mark. I bet the thaw will be a very messy affair

Accident on Coleraine Road not far from my estate, there's a car on its roof, it must have slide on the snow/ice, the road sign was struck hard before it rolled. Don't know of any injuries, Police and Ambulance are not at the scene yet.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 09, 2010, 09:07:38 pm
By all accounts an exciting week ahead then weatherwise, a reliable long term forecast is hard to pin down at the minute with so many variables in the picture- but snow definitely looks on the cards over the next 48hrs ;D.  Had another dusting of snow here this afternoon and today was another ice day.

Excellent shot of the sunset by the river Martin, it looks sooooo cold!

Jez hope everyone ok there, really bad smash outside Omagh this week 2 young lads killed-there was bad fog at the time, very sad.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 09, 2010, 10:32:35 pm
UKww Weather Warning – Ice, heavy snow spreading to many areas

Valid from: 0800z Saturday 9th - 00z Tuesday 12th January 2010

Areas affected: Ice - all areas. Snow - Scotland at first; England, Wales, Northern Ireland later.

General evolution: Currently, an anticyclone centered 1042mb over Norway has an extension westwards with another centre of 1033mb over Ireland. A large area of low pressure with a centre, 997mb, just west of Italy, ensures a strong pressure-gradient and Easterly airflow across N Europe. Associated fronts move slowly north and west to affect the UK.

The high drifts off northwards and the Mediterranean low begins to fill and drift off eastwards towards the end of the forecast period, as a major Atlantic low starts to extend its strong winds and fronts eastwards towards the UK.

Forecast:

Again, sheet-ice will continue to present a severe hazard on all untreated surfaces, underfoot and to drivers.

Snow showers continue to bring new accumulations of snow to the northern half of Scotland on Saturday, these dying out tonight. More showers pushing into Eastern parts of England, extending towards the Midlands.  At the same time, outbreaks of snow move into the south-east of England, where 5-10 (locally 15+)cm of snow will fall and the strong winds will cause drifting, with blizzard conditions giving poor visibility possible.

The snowfall will then work its way north and west. By Sunday afternoon and throughout Monday, it will be affecting other areas of England, Wales and eventually Northern Ireland. Again, heavy falls and blizzard conditions in strong winds are expected, the latter especially over hill country. Given the already cold and icy conditions, further disruption may reasonably be expected.

Although this Warning expires at 00z on Tuesday, attention should be drawn to the frontal systems approaching from the SW by then. These pose yet another threat of strong winds and snowfall from Tuesday onwards. Why not check out the detailed discussions as the situation evolves by reading UKww's synoptic discussions here ?

If you need to travel then please check the latest advisories and keep a winter travel kit in your vehicle.

For checking out where there is rain, sleet or snow the following link may be useful:

UKww will monitor this Warning and update it if necessary.

Issued by JSM for UKww, 0900Z 09/01/2010


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 10, 2010, 11:58:04 am
What a difference overnight makes!

Woke up this morning to overcast skies and snow - even though it isn't showing on the rainfall radar!  However there is a thaw taking place, in between the snow flurries everywhere is starting to take on a damp appearance as the lying snow and ice starts to melt.  What I need is heavier snow!  Fortunately more is predicted for later - my only concern at this stage is that it could well be sleet or even rain...  Temperature at the moment is 0c.

Gonna keep a close eye on this!  ;)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 10, 2010, 12:43:31 pm
11Z Update

Bit of a Mess frankly !  Rather complicated upper and surface features affecting the UK with confidence growing on a slow return to less cold weather as we go through the week. But More snow for many - esp in the north.

12Z Sat Models have not done a good job in the precip detail, The NAE really was doing well, but developments overnight have meant a poor precip forecast from yesterday.  The 00Z Models were not much better in misplacing all sorts of detail.  I.E The Sleet/Snow over the SW was not well handled, was better handled by the ECMWF 2 days ago than last night ! The Precip in the SE did not organise as much as the NAE expected, GFS was better here, and the precip coming into Eastern PArts was delayed.... All in all rather poor precip forecasting from all the models, except in parts of CS England where nothing much was expected and nothing much fell !

WV Imagery showsd two upper areas of mid level forcing, one over the SW approaches - this driving the Rain/Sleet and Snow into SE IReland, and the 2nd over Belgium drifting WNW and is helping to produce the Rain/Sleet and Snow over the North Sea, Lincs and that leaving the Dutch Coast.  Elsewhere its cold, grey and breezy, infact windy across parts of Northern England with gusts between 30 and 45Knts.   Warm Advection has taken place overnight aloft, but Air aloft is still quite cold.  00Z Ascents from Herstmonceux show that the warm advection is well aloft at 600/700mbs and that the airmass below is cold.  The warming at the surface is simply the result of mixing and the less cold air from the North Sea being modified and essentially producing a less cold b/l over most parts of England and Wales.  (De Bilt also shows similar)  It is therefore meaning a rise in WBFL's slighly across Eastern Coastal Areas up to 200m now which means a sleety mix is more likely nr the coasts - but still snow inland, and increasingly so as the area of precip over Lincs comes WNW into N England, it becoming increasingly of Snow.  Sleet /Snow across the SW dying out during the day , but odd flurries blowing around in the wind today.

Its fine and Sunny but very cold across Scotland and staying that way today. Snow moving WNW into N England into N Ireland later this evening.

Tomorrow similar to today, but winds becoming light further south with Showers running into Southern Devon and Cornwall with time as the wind veers, Snow Inland, Sleet on Coasts. 

WBFL's are creeping up - still largely nr the surface inland but 100-200m increasingly nr coasts.

The week ahead  - well there are still model problems. Even by T+60 the UKMO GM (06Z) vs the GFS (06Z) has the low in different places coming into the SW.  The UKMO has the low digging more SE, whereas the GFS allows it to run west of IReland. This is important as it affects the about of "backing" of the WInd and means it comes from the ESE as opposed to SSE meaning a difference in the B/L structure of the lowest 150mbs which affects the Rain.Sleet.Snow distribution.  ECM was similar to UKMO, but either solution is possible and the ENS supports both so your guess is as good as mine at this point...!!

General idea is for rain to spread into the far SW on Tues and move slowly NE turning to Snow inland but at the same time slowing and weakening and really not making it further than say Wales, to Bath to Poole before dying out.  The next system will have another go at pushing further north, now UKMO GM and GFS suggest this one will be more successfull at pushing less cold air into the SW and South but more snow across the Midlands into N England, however the ECMWF doesnt suggest this one will get as far north as the model consensus. Infact the ECMWF is somewhat on its own this morning with most other model guidance suggesting by the weekend most parts except the far north will be in less cold air, but a slow and painful transition with certainly more snow to come in the north this week. 

The biggest question marks in the short term are

Snow depths today and tonight - Well 1-3cm over most parts - though locally 4-10cm over the Upslopes of the Pennines and the Mourne Mountains in N IReland elsehwere just a dusting.

SNow coming into the SW on Tues, this is much harder, Rain/Sleet likely in Cornwall, Southern Coasts, but Inland N Devon, Somersety, Bathm Bristol and Inland S Wales could see 5-10cm of Snow before it fizzles out...

Temps - Staying cold in Scotland, elsewhere cloud, low level mixing has brought some weak warm advection across most central and southern parts -esp SE parts where the wind off the sea is bringing less cold air in ... Its not exactly warm though.. Cromer for example still only 1.4C right on the coast... 

TOI 12.05

PJB

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 10, 2010, 12:50:20 pm
Thanks for the update Martin!

Curious setup for me so far today - snow is falling, settling and accumulating on snow / ice surfaces, however surfaces that are free of ice / snow are soaking wet, the snow just melting as it lands.  To get a whiteout all over the intensity of the snow needs to pick up significantly...  :-[


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on January 10, 2010, 01:22:31 pm
Quote
snow is falling, settling and accumulating on snow / ice surfaces, however surfaces that are free of ice / snow are soaking wet, the snow just melting as it lands.
I've got the opposite - dry, easterly breeze force 5, air temp has been above freezing for 12 hours & is now 3.8C (thermometer pretty accurate) yet the ground remains frozen with patches of sheet ice on the road just about starting to thaw (the worst possible conditions for driving!)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 10, 2010, 04:39:31 pm
Wow, made it down to Lough Neagh at Ballyronan Marina, it was a spectacular experience, a huge area of the Lough is frozen solid with boats frozen in the water and people walking on it, it looks like a scene from 'The Day After Tomorow'. Will post video and images later. What a rare sight this was, I wonder if I will ever experience that again. Lots of families there recording the event, met some wonderful people.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: JohnC on January 10, 2010, 08:52:07 pm
I see the Atlantic low will push and split north and south on Wednesday when we, here in Gloucestershire may get some snow then the high will  dominate again. The worst two months of a year are January and February so plenty of time for more cold periods and snow.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: JohnC on January 10, 2010, 10:47:08 pm
 Sunday: It's 10.45pm and it's snowing moderately here.with large flakes .Raintoday shows a band of (red) heavy to moderate snow moving SE >NW, We weren't expecting any according to the forecast, not till Wednesday.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 10, 2010, 10:58:52 pm
On the topic of raintoday- it was showing sleet/snow mix in my location from 9.45pm and there was nothing falling from the sky ??? As I write this the sleet has started. Bit of a thaw here today although mostly from roofs and trees/hedges.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 10, 2010, 11:14:57 pm
Light rain/sleet here so far, looks like a snow non-event here so far, will see what Mon/Tues brings, although I'm not optimistic.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 10, 2010, 11:18:30 pm
22Z

Brief Update tonight.  Rather a messy day ! Precip waxing and waning deom time to time with varying levels of Intensity meaning a mix of rain/sleet and snow for most. The B/L was perhaps a fraction warmer than expected, and this meant the difference between Rain.Snow given the marginal precip intensities.   A Lot has been said about the fact this airmass is so warm in an East Wind.  Well the wind has actually been NE for most the weekend, and even though it originates further east, two sets of modifications have happened to it as confirmed by 12Z Ascents.  a) It was modified air that originally crossed the Alps from the Med - hence there is a large warm nose at 600-800mbs, characteristic of an "upper warm front" and 2nd the airmass entering most of England and Wales originated nr the Skagerrak off Denmark, meaning it crossed the largest portion of the sea before arriving in the UK, hence many places saw this lowest level airmass (lowest 50mbs) warm a little even though 950mb temps well still well below freezing across the whole area.  When the North Sea is still between 5-7C it makes a substantial difference having a long sea track vs a short sea track.

Over the coming 48hrs the airmass will and winds will veer more SE'ly and hence the airmass arriving in the UK will be a continental type and with lower DPs, and surface Wetbulbs, WBFL will lower in the south , but remain similar in NE England where the lengthy sea track will persist in delivering rain.sleet to coasts and snow inland.

Precip has actually increased this evening, this large assoc with the weak forcing evident on Mid Level WV Imagery and is providing enough ascent to deepen the boundary layer to produce some outbreaks of Sleet/Snow, A dusting in places inland and up to 5cm on some exposed upslopes well away from Coastal influences.

Looking further ahead there continues to be problems later on Tuesday and Into Weds.  The Met OFfice have now issued an Early Warning for Snow.  The 12Z GFS, UKMO GM was more progressive than the 12z ECMWF, which has to be said whilst has been at odds with other models in some respects has been rock solid with its less progressive solution both in the short term and then longer term, though even with the ECM there is better agreement at most places becoming less cold (at least for a time) late in the week and the weekend. 

The 18Z GFS has moved towards the ECMWF with respect to Tuesday's low into Weds.  The driving trough which deepens the low to the SW of the UK spins up the low and then the Jet Energy forces SE into Biscay and Iberia which means the trough disrupts to the SW of the UK.  This trough first becomes negatively tilted, extends then disrupts as it cannot break down the block to its NE.  There is better agreement from the ECMWF 12Z, NAE 18Z and GFS 18Z of Rain turning to Snow inland across the SW (likely rain/sleet in Cornwall, but turning to Snow in Devon away from the immidiete SE Coasts (onshore flow) Significant falls occuring 5-10cm in places and up to 15-20cm over the Moors. Strong winds generating blizzards in places for a time before the winds ease off. 

The front makes inroads then into S Wales and into Somerset and CS England, at the same time a breakaway low forms in the trough disruptiuon and moves east - now this development becomes inportant as its this low which heads ESE and extends the snow risk into CS England, The positioning of this low is crucial in how far east the snow gets it also has the added effect of Backing the wind off the land instead of the Sea. The ECMWF has 2-5cm extending about as far as the ISle of Wight before fizzling. The 18Z GFS takes it a little further and has greater precip intensity (has 14cm over SOmerset by 06Z Weds)

I need to stress even though we are talking only 48-60hrs away - there is as much uncertainty in what ive written above as a normal 5 day forecast... Its very complex and 50miles movement in one direction or another makes a lot of difference.

TOI 22.50

PJB

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on January 11, 2010, 01:10:50 am
Quote
Light rain/sleet here so far, looks like a snow non-event here so far
Just rain here. Temp has fallen from +4 during the day to +1.6 but this is normal winter weather not "cold snap" - still some frost in the ground though.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 11, 2010, 07:19:09 am
Well i've just woken up to another 2" covering of snow.  Checked the local 'hotline' to see if school / work is open and it's only open to year 10 & 11 (15 / 16 year olds), open to staff as usual - curious move this, will be intersting to see the reasoning behind it.  We're not exclusive as a school either doing this, there's quite a few in the borough that are doing it...  Not been outside but it looks quite breezy this morning...


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 11, 2010, 05:28:03 pm
Rain and sleet here all day and now it's snowing fairly heavily, seems like such a waste though in these milder temps, it aint going to sit.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 11, 2010, 05:42:49 pm
It's been light snow pellet flurries all day here.  Though it has been colder than I thought, and while I expected all the pavements to have melted they have turned to slush instead, which will no doubt freeze later on tonight...

I'm looking carefully out into the Atlantic now wondering what chaos late tuesday and wednesday will bring, will be intersting to see!  ;D


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 11, 2010, 08:34:36 pm
13Z Update

The 06Z NAE is more similar to the ECM 12z and 00Z issues. The GFS is more bullish in pushing the front in a bit further before trough disruption occurs. There are going to be significant problems modelling the very potent jet core coming east North of the Azores. This needs precise modelling , too weak and the trough will disrupt to early, to strong and the model will disrupt too late. In the grand scheme of life this would normally not make much difference, however across the South tomorrow it makes a huge difference with regards Rain/Snow Mix. Any Snow in CS England is dependent on the wind backing Easterly (from SE'ly as the wind whilst will have cooled the WBFLs somewhat is still a wide portion of the Channel to cross hence southern coasts are likely to see rain & sleet, however if the wind back E'ly then Snow can be brought down to coastal areas.

Inland however a Sig Snow event looks possible for Exmoor, Dartmoor, North Devon, Somerset, Inland S Wales and as far NE as Bath, Bristol down to Salisbury. The GFS takes precip further east, However the ECMWF refuses to and has been very consisent in its positioning of the front by Weds Morning.

People should expect 5-10cm inland and 10-20cm on the moors and high ground. Sig accumulations may build up in inland CS England as the front grinds to a halt, but the precise phase mix by then as well as the orientation of the front by Weds Morning in assoc with any low in the Channel has BIG question marks. Highest totals appear from Exmoor across to Bath and to Yeovil as well as Dartmoor and the mountains of S Wales (though much progress North into Wales is questionable at this stage)

And before anyone asks - for those in this area (Bmth, Poole to Southampton) Its very Borderline... More likely Rain/Sleet - Possibility of Turning to Snow if a low can develop in the Channel at the right time and the wind comes more easterly.

Residual Rain,sleet and Snow is leaving N Ireland and SW Scotland.  WBFL's around 300-450m in this zone having entrained some higher DP less cold air from the North Sea, somewhat cooler lower DP air is advecting into the South and SE from France, though its been a pitfully slow process with little advection anywhere of the air over England today with about a +/- 0.8 def change in temp doing well !

Synoptically things are beginning to change, a very strong Jet Core is crossing the Atlantic at a low latitude and coming up against the cold block over Scandinavia, the exact strength and position of this jet very important to the subsequent shape of the upper trough as it comes into the SW approaches.  The ECM has been very consistent in the low turning to the North earlier and spinning it up to the west of Ireland and allowing an extending trough to be dragged ESE as the Jet overruns and punches into Iberia. The UKMO GM is / has been less keen on this idea and brings the low further into the SW, latest run has moved a little way towards the UKM but I still do not think its modelling the trough correctly. WV imagery indicates the low is moving to the West of Ireland, and supports the ECMWF.  Its pleasing to see the 12Z GFS move towards the ECMWF, though its perhaps a little fast.  The exact positioning of the low as it moves East is important - the latest trends indicate the low will run right through the Channel and then move towards KEnt and then Suffolk as it curls around and gets pushed north by another trough to the SW.  This is important is drags precip a little further east and more importantly backs the wind from the land across most of Southern England instead of the Sea so meaning its very difficult to call the rain/snow mix on the coasts but 20 miles inland Snow is much more likely.  Infact the ECM keeps rain/Snow going through most of Wednesday across SE and CS England with a slow rise in WBFL during the day from the SW, though the really milder air makes more progress North across Ireland than NE across England.

So the detail... Rain arriving in Cornwall during the morning and turning to Snow across Devon, Bodmin Moor, Dartmoor.  The SE coasts of Devon likely to see Sleet/ then a cold rain.  Inland across Devon the precip Snow, incl North Devon and Exmoor, arriving into SOmerset and S Wales during the afternoon, again sleet /rain on exposed SE Coasts and Snow inland.

Snow accumulations 3-8cm in most inland places of the SW, 10-15cm over the moors of SW England and the Mountains of S Wales 15-20cm isolated more.

Turning increasingly to rain across most of the SW during the late afternoon as WBFL's rise with much milder air into the SW by then - temps up to 6-8C

Now into the Evening we see the low forming in the English Channel and moving east, winds back easterly then ENE across CS England, Snow pushes into Somerset, Wiltshire, Bath, Bristol and Doret. Lighter amounts getting into Hants and Berks.  5-10cm inland across CS England, Coastal areas of CS England are very difficult, if the wind backs and the precip is heavy enough we could easily see snow,  GFS Forecast Ascents show Snow to the surface easily in heavy precip and more generally away from the Immidiete Coastal strip.  Its so dififcult to call and frankly for these CS Coastal areas we will just have to wait and see.  Inland its an easier story and forecast ascents more generally support snow - so some heavy falls in places - the snow quite wet and sticky.

Weds sees a cold and grey day across SE england with snow / sleet slowly turning to sleet/rain and turning grey and misty, temps slowly coming up but feeling very cold.  Much milder in the far SW and this milder air coming into West Wales  and creeping up the Irish SEa.  A slow process

Into Thurs and Fri and the Milder air pushes north right up the western side of the UK - temps 7-9C across the coastla SW by then and WEstern N Ireland IOM and Western Scotland, staying colder further east with a much slower temp rise.

Heavy Rain spreads east into the Weekend and this assisting a much quicker thaw, and it will clear the roads of salt, ice and grit - the front coming into the west but weakening as it moves east.

Looking longer ahead - the ECM remains very blocked again as its recent 12Z Runs have - Infact 12Z Runs in general have been shown a tendency for the block to extend west again. The ECM is very keen tonight, the GFS hints at this also with a developing cold pool heading west. 

The fact the ECM continues to hint at this means we need to take it seriously though the lack of agreement from the GFS and oither models makes this uncertain at this time. 

PJB

Fig 1 - Estimated Snow Depth Chart for EVent later tomorrow and into WEds - Estimates Only - not inplace of an official Chart.

(http://i47.tinypic.com/2s63hqh.png)

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 11, 2010, 09:21:20 pm
Interesting reports there Martin.  Its seems the 'weather' isn't going to push as far north as me - oh well!  I'll still have my eye on the weather websites though to see its progress...


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 12, 2010, 12:16:33 am
From Irish Weather Network...

Forecast for Tuesday 12th Jan.

We have an active frontal system associated with a developing LP system that will move close to the SW coast by early morning on Tuesday. Strengthening SE'ly Gales or possibly Severe Gales for a time developing on the SW and southern coastline by 0300 Tuesday spreading to the west coast and possibly the east coast on Tuesday morning and later the NW.

Heavy rain will push onto the SW coast soon after midnight and quickly spread NE through the country.
Snow melt over the southern half of the country and with 30-40mm rainfall will lead to some flooding in places.

There is a slight snow risk for the lower lying areas of the midlands, parts of the north and NW with a higher risk of snow for higher ground for a time. Accumulations of snow if any will be short lived as some maritime air moves north with the precip turning any snow falling back to rain at lower levels.

However, there could be a substantial amount of snow over 350m early in the south for a time and over the Wicklow mountains in particular before the snowline increases here also.
Some wet snow could settle at elevations lower than this (350m) in the heavier precip in hilly and mountainous regions.

Mountains of the North and NW could receive several hours of snow above 250m as the front slows down it's progression northwards.

There is also a short risk of some freezing rain for a time preceding the front more particularly in the N Midlands and North.

Temperatures will range from 1C to 4C in the northern half of the country with a general rise in the south with temps between 4 to 7C or 8C in the SW later in the day. Dewpoints increase during the day also.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 12, 2010, 09:39:46 pm
UKww Weather Warning – Heavy Snow & blizzards, Tues 12th-Weds 13th Jan

Valid from: 1200z Tuesday 12th - 2359z Wednesday 13th January 2010

Areas affected: SW & CS England, westernmost Midlands, Wales, Northern Ireland

General evolution: High pressure centered over Scandanavia and extending out to the north of the UK drifts away ENE, but cold air still remains in place over the UK. Developing low pressure in the Atlantic off NW Spain is engaged by powerful jetstreak and becomes a strong, perhaps briefly sub-970mb depression, expected to be centered off SW Ireland by 1200 Tuesday and then moving northwards off the W seaboard of Ireland, only filling slowly. Associated fronts make inroads into western areas before decaying later on Wednesday.

Forecast:

During Tuesday, cloud and rain will arrive in the morning to affect western Cornwall. The frontal rainband turns to sleet and snow as it moves NE, pushing across Wales on Tuesday afternoon/evening, then becoming slow-moving on Tuesday night. During Wednesday daytime, the frontal rainband will be working its way into the Midlands and CS England, but will begin to decay in intensity, with precipitation dying out on Wednesday night as the front clears away eastwards.

Snow will be moderately heavy at times but more importantly it will be prolonged: amounts will be greatest on high ground where 15-25cm are possible e.g. over the SW moors and the Welsh mountains. More widely, falls of 5-15cm are expected, exceptions being the Welsh coast and lower-lying/coastal parts of SW England, SW Wales and Northern Ireland, where sleet or rain are expected to be dominant.

Strong to gale-force south to south-easterly winds will be gusting 40-50 (very locally 60)mph in exposed places. Drifting of snow is likely to be a problem in exposed places, with blizzard conditions likely over the higher ground. Disruption to travel is likely to occur in the worst affected areas.

Conditions should ease from the west during Wednesday, but travel problems could take some time to sort out in the worst affected areas.

If you need to travel then please check the latest advisories and keep a winter travel kit in your vehicle.

For checking out where there is rain, sleet or snow the following link may be useful:

UKww will monitor this Warning and update it if necessary.

Issued by JSM for UKww, 1130Z 11/01/2010


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 13, 2010, 07:22:33 am
Well I was woken by my mobile ringing this morning to tell me school is closed, again, due to more snow.  It's still dark here so it's difficult to see how much we have.  All the main roads are clear, but have wheel tracks down them and everywhere else has a blanket of white.  I guess there's probably another inch or so...

Looks like the frontal band is going to be over the top of me for some time yet so will be somemore accumulations yet I guess.  Keep you posted! :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 13, 2010, 02:37:55 pm
Well just after lunch now and it's been snowing steadily for 12 hours.  Certainly in my immediate area there seems to be about 4" of fresh snow.  Locally I suspect this may go up to 6".  On the usual 'thaw surfaces' a melt is taking place, given the current temp is around freezing, in a couple of hours time when it starts going dark and temperatures fall below it is going to be very icy!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 14, 2010, 12:16:53 am
It snowed here all last night, heavy too, and blown by a keen wind, however it never stayed on the ground at all. This evening there has been sleet and very tiny snow flakes falling, at times I thought there was freezing rain but can't be sure. There's alot of surface water on the roads and mist making for poor visiblity when driving.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 14, 2010, 07:12:22 am
There's alot of surface water on the roads and mist making for poor visiblity when driving.

Sounds like the main roads round here - today we get the thaw setting in!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 14, 2010, 01:39:41 pm
Nothing unusual here during recent days: temperature is near zero or slightly below, getnly snowing on every day, the amount of snow on the ground is slowly increasing (now 15cm).


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 14, 2010, 09:45:51 pm
Met O have a severe weather warning out for Sat...

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting western parts of the UK during Saturday.

Heavy rain will move in from the west accompanied by strong to gale force winds. Rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 mm are expected widely, with up to 40 mm on high ground. With melting snow and ground still frozen in places there is a risk of localised flooding.

There's also a risk of freezing rain for parts of the UK on Fri - also from the Met O - very rare to see that mentioned!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 15, 2010, 06:09:43 pm
14-day forecast... What can I say?!!   :-X

(http://i49.tinypic.com/2nvwjg7.png)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 15, 2010, 06:55:39 pm
UKww Weather Watch for Storm winds, heavy rain & local flooding

Issued Friday 15/01/10 1745GMT

Areas affected by Watch - N Ireland, NW, west, SW Scotland & the Scottish Highlands, central & W Wales, NW England

Valid from: 1800GMT Friday 15th January - 2359GMT Saturday 16th January

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

General evolution:


A deep low is moving north west of Ireland bringing a tight pressure gradient, strong winds and mild moist air quickly north across all parts of the UK
Forecast: During Friday evening, winds increasing across extreme west Scotland along with N Ireland to severe gale and locally storm force. Gusts of 70-80mph are possible over the more exposed Western Isles. Winds abating by morning. Road users are advised to take extra care.Along with the winds heavy rain will move up across W Wales, NW England and western Scotland especially; 35mm is possible in the period, may be 50mm on high ground. This will exacerbate snow melt in many areas and could cause localised flooding. This is perhaps most likely on the valley floors of central west Wales, lowlands of Cumbria, and W Scotland valleys and glens.  Travel may become difficult and we advise listening to local radio for updates. 

UKww will monitor this Warning and update it if necessary.

Issued by DJW for UKww, 1745z 15/01/10



Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 15, 2010, 08:52:55 pm
Thats a great looking forecast there Roman :) What do the symbols mean for the 22nd and 23rd?

Its pretty rough outside now with very gusty winds especially associated with the last few heavy showers.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 15, 2010, 09:24:41 pm
What do the symbols mean for the 22nd and 23rd?
That' supposed to be a blizzard (if I make a correct translation of russian metel' (http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Метель)), but in case with this forecast it usually turns into simply a snowfall with moderate to high wind speed, not a true blizzard, as I imagine it (when heavy winds, snow is chaotically flying in the air, and it is not possible to distinguish whether it is a snowfall, or it is a snow from the ground blown up in the air, or both).


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 15, 2010, 10:03:16 pm
Yes, very nasty weather here now, gales, heavy rain and sleet - windows are getting a good blasting!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 15, 2010, 10:05:13 pm
Convective outlook for UK/Ireland UKASF

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/mode-forecast/id-282/


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 15, 2010, 10:30:45 pm
That frontal passage felt more like a squall line, rainfall radar showed moderate strength echoes!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 15, 2010, 10:44:26 pm
Yeah I was just thinking that earlier Martin because the wind got very strong here around 8:30-8:45 and and died off suddenly to a moderate breeze here now with a few stronger gusts.  Worth keeping a lookout tomorrow then for some potential T-storms or at least some heavy showers!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 16, 2010, 12:04:23 am
I'm with you Paul, will be keeping an eye on Sat/Sun for convection and flooding in the rivers. Paul, are you on facebook by any chance?


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 16, 2010, 12:28:47 am
I'm not Martin, it's something I never got around to setting up but I will In the near future hopefully


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 16, 2010, 01:22:07 am
Snow in the mix now, friend of mine seen lightning from Maghaberry.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 16, 2010, 01:47:28 am
It would be good to get you on Paul, I'm trying to get as many as possible on, it's good for real time comms.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 16, 2010, 02:13:33 pm
FORECAST FOR Monday 18th January- Sunday 24th January 2010

ISSUED 16th January 1115Z 

POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE PERIOD
There are likely to be severe gales/storm winds in the far NW midweek
There may be heavy snow on northern hills midweek at times with drifting

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEEKLY SUMMARY
 
A week where colder air lies to the east and milder airmasses to the west with the UK in between the two. The west generally staying rather unsettled. wet and windy at times though with drier interludes, the east drier and somewhat colder in the main with some night time frosts and fog.

Monday 18th looks likely to see high pressure to the Se and a weak ridge across the UK. Some early ground frosts and localised mist and fog patches at first across many inland areas of Wales and England, clearing slowly to give weak sunny periods. Some rain about in Scotland though, persisting all day. A slight frost with fog patches reforming by evening in some central & northern areas where cloud clears enough, though the far west & SW becoming cloudier with freshening SE’ly winds by late evening. Temperatures should stay near average at 5-7C in most areas today but only 2C over the Highlands & perhaps up to 8-10C in the SW and near some north western coasts too.

Tuesday 19th will probably see high pressure move  up to the NE of the UK over Scandinavia as fronts try to push NE, up into the SW by morning as a strong SE’ly flow develops down in the west , NW & SW and W Wales for a time, possibly with severe gales in the far NW later for a time. A cloudy start for many though with a lot of mist and low cloud about inland slow to clear by day. Further outbreaks of rain with local mist and fog patches too over high ground continuing across SW England and W Wales by day. A slight frost initially in NE England & E Scotland possible more especially in glens; a few icy patches and some freezing mist patches & low cloud about here too. By early evening the rain band lying across central southern parts of England, up into central & east Wales and NW England and N Ireland and it may turn to sleet or snow on higher ground in the north, especially the Pennines, with significant accumulations, possibly some sleet & wet snow over lower ground later too. However another slight frost developing for inland areas of the north & east Scotland, with icy patches. Temperatures generally staying a little below average at 3 to 5C but only 1-2C in the Highlands, though up to 7-9C in the southwest and S Wales.

Wednesday 20th looks to see a little low pressure area form to the southeast with the high pressure still in control across over Scandinavia with a moderate SE'ly flow across the UK. A weakening band of rain sleet and snow continuing still overnight and by day across some central areas, still heavy at times with more snow accumulating in places and drifting too, mainly over hills. The SW and S & W Wales staying rather milder & drier after early rain clears away with some weak sunshine. A slight frost soon setting in after dusk in the inland west with some mist and fog patches too, spreading to central areas as well. Temperatures feeling cold at 0C to 3C generally, though up to 5- 7C in the west & south of England and Wales, esp near coasts and up to 9-10C in the SW. 

Thursday 21st looks likely to see another deep low develop to the west and move rapidly north towards SE Iceland with a very strong SSEly flow developing across most parts. There could be severe gales in the west and possibly storm winds in the far NW later. A slight frost at first away from coasts in the east and central areas with icy patches and possibly some freezing mist or fog patches about but cloudier in the west by mid  morning as rain moves in from the SW, heavy and persistent esp over western upslopes. As it reaches central upland areas later on some sleety outbreaks are possible with upland snow and drifting in the strong winds. Further south down through into southern England, some sleet over hills, but general a wet murky day with light or moderate rain at times. The far west and SW showery later. Another cold raw day for most of the north & east , max temperatures about 1C to 3C but more like 5-7C in the west and south but near southern coasts and through SW Wales and SW England up to 9-11C again.

Friday 22nd seems on the whole to see little change as low pressure lies to the south or SE and high pressure over to the NE. A lot of low cloud about for most especially over high ground with initial outbreaks of mainly light rain & sleet with hill snow. The milder weather will struggle to work into the NE but should do so eventually. Drying up from the west by morning with sunny periods developing for most.  A few showers in the west near coasts. By evening in the slack W-SW flow mist & fog patches will likely form across many inland central and western areas across the UK with a localised ground frost but mainly too cloudy for this in the west. Temperatures generally a rather milder 5-8C by day for most though up to 9-11C around the SW coastal counties but only 0-2C over the Highlands & much of E Scotland.

Saturday 23rd and Sunday 24th seems likely to see cold air very close to the east and NE with high pressure still in charge towards Scandinavia to the northeast and low pressure to the west or SW with a milder airmass always trying to push into the west with associated strong S-SWly winds.  Some slight night frost inland places away from coasts, generally only as low as -1C but the Highlands may see as low as -4C. Near western coasts and in the SW a lot of low cloud, mist, hill fog and some rain, possibly heavy, seems most likely through Saturday and into Sunday. In the east and central parts brighter generally with weak sunny periods but always the risk of some rain developing in central areas too later. Temperatures over the weekend by day will likely be fairly cold for most eastern & central areas at 2C to 4C, possibly only 1C in the Highlands but more like 6-8C in the SW, S & W Wales & N Ireland and locally 10C in Cornwall.   

FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK

*Some fog or freezing fog patches, mist and low cloud inland through the week & weekend more esp in the north 
*Risk of moderate or heavy snow in places in eastern & northern areas through midweek, this mainly over the hills above 250m   
*Risk of drifting snow in strong E-SE winds at times, more esp where accumulations still lie over northern hills midweek above 250m.
*Some slight frosts overnight in central and northern parts esp in the Highland glens still with icy patches at times esp where there's a lot of surface snow and frozen water
*Avalanche risk in places in mountains when/ if any milder air moves in
*Icy lakes & ponds may melt or re-freeze and be hazardous

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate-high becoming moderate-poor by Thursday

WW & UKww disclaimer: The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data. Wiseweather & UKww are providing the data "as is" and disclaim any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability

Dave Wiseman
UKww Executive/C & M Manager/Warnings team


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 16, 2010, 07:05:21 pm
Wet and mild for me again today, locally all trace of snow has now melted.  There's a chance it may clear up later on tonight - hope it does, I fancy getting the scope out for an hour or 2...  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Big Dipper on January 17, 2010, 07:07:53 am
Same here Mark. I was almost euphoric on seeing that the snow had finally gone Friday/Saturday. Although mostly cloudy throughout the day I was also delighted to see the sky clear at around 3am so have been taking an image while I just had a scan around the heavens.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 17, 2010, 04:36:01 pm
14-day forecast... What can I say?!!   :-X
Now I'm very glad that the forecast was absolutely mistaking! Today the sky is completely clear, -13C, 65% RH!  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 17, 2010, 06:34:37 pm
A bright sunny day today.  White over with frost this morning, snow remains locally - snowman remains, heaps of snow etc.  Its been above freezing today but clear skies now mean another frost is imminent.  Whilst we may be milder now than what it was say 10 days ago, it is still certainly pretty chilly! I suspect we will see more 'real' winter here again before spring arrives...  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on January 17, 2010, 10:46:59 pm
Quote
we may be milder now than what it was say 10 days ago
Yeah, no frost at all for a week. Still to break 10C this year though.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Tyler on January 18, 2010, 07:34:00 am
Been pretty crazy start to the year around here, the first 10 days of the month were the third coldest in 140 years, then another blizzard, and now crazy fog/freezing fog/frost.

Caught a crazy fogbow the other night and had some thick rime frost the next morning. Still foggy here! visibility has been around a quarter mile for a good 3 days now. Here is one of the thick rime frost covering the trees. Fogbow and other images on my homepage... http://tonightssky.org/


(http://www.tonightssky.org/images/011610b.jpg)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 18, 2010, 03:14:48 pm
Beautiful image Tyler!, and the shot of the fog bow is amazing, keep shooting and let us know what's happening from your part of the world, which is always great to know. Thanks for sharing the images.  :)

Things are mild here at the moment but another cold spell is possible at the end of Jan.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 18, 2010, 03:54:35 pm
Great shot Tyler, those trees are beautiful with a good covering of rime like that, conditions look pretty severe out there.

A miserable day here with overcast skies and drizzle-yuk :(


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: rjgjr on January 18, 2010, 08:28:38 pm
Great shot Tyler, love the undulating country road!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 19, 2010, 02:52:31 pm
UKww Weather Watch – Heavy Snow, ice

Valid from: 0000z Wednesday 20th - 1200z Thursday 21st January 2010

Areas affected: Wales, the Western Midlands, Central S England


General evolution: A southerly airflow over the UK (with large Atlantic low approaching from the west) backs more easterly as a small low centre develops over the English Channel. A front approaches from the west, but becomes slow-moving over the forecast area before it decays later on Wednesday and the small low moves away SE into the Continent.


Forecast: Rain will spread in from the west on Tuesday night to affect SW & CS England, the W Midlands, N Ireland and Wales. In the Watch area this turns to snow - especially over higher ground above about 250m. Areas to watch particularly are the hills of Wales, the Shropshire/Hereford & Worcester hills, the S and W Cotswolds, the Forest of Dean, Salisbury Plain and the Mendips. 10cm+ of snow possible in these highlighted areas, with some drifting in a stiff SE breeze: travel disruption possible. Elsewhere in the Watch area conditions may permit brief falls of a few centimetres of wet snow. Less risk elsewhere e.g. Northern Ireland will likely see just sleet over the hills. Rain, sleet and snow dies out on Wednesday evening and an overnight frost develops in places with the risk of ice on untreated roads until later on Thursday morning when milder air ahead of incoming rain moves in from the west.

UKww will monitor this Watch and update it if necessary.

Issued by JSM for UKww, 0615z, 19/01/2010


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 19, 2010, 06:20:21 pm
Great picture Tyler! Crazy weather indeed!

Interesting synopsis for tomorrow - personally i think for me, in the west mids, we will see rain - we're at 170m (ish) asl here - plenty below the 250m snowline predicted.  They seem to be erring on the side of caution with this weather watch...


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 19, 2010, 07:14:16 pm
Yes, certainly looks like snow potential for some areas, the BBC tv forecast are going for it anyway over parts of Britain.

I have my eye on the huge frontal system crossing the country on Thurs, that looks nasty with strong winds and heavy rainfall with flooding as a possible  result. Convective maps are showing the tornado and supercell signatures from this front but lack of instability and lift could destroy the chances of those, worth watching though for embedded convective elements!

There's a big battle between the Atlantic and cold air to the east so it will be interesting to see which wins, if the E high does, then another cold spell could be on the cards.


Title: Heavy Snow
Post by: JohnC on January 20, 2010, 08:22:11 am
We've got heavy snow now - 0818 and it's settling,  roofs and roads already  a centimetre (half an inch aprrox.) covered . I think we've got a couple of hours of this to come. ( just taken breakfast  to the birds .lol)

3C East wind 3kmph.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 20, 2010, 05:13:24 pm
There's a big battle between the Atlantic and cold air to the east so it will be interesting to see which wins (...)
Well, earlier or later, the Russian anticyclone will win here - next week may be the coldest since Feb. 2006.
Just before today there were a few clear nights with temperature near -15C. Now there is a cyclone heading from south, so there will be a little cloudy break (1.5 or 4 days long) with a lot of snow and moderately cold temperatures (-10...-15C). But the next week will be fun - mostly clear Tue to Fri, daytime -10...-20C and -20...-28C at night.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 20, 2010, 11:44:59 pm
Enjoy those clear nights when you get them Roman  :)

Met O have severe weather warning for us on Thurs due to the frontal system, heavy rain, gales, risk of flooding. Models are now showing a possible arctic plunge next week - another cold spell on the way.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 20, 2010, 11:49:47 pm
From John C...

We've got heavy snow now - 0818 and it's settling,  roofs and roads already  a centimetre (half an inch aprrox.) covered . I think we've got a couple of hours of this to come. ( just taken breakfast  to the birds .lol)

3C East wind 3kmph.

John, I have tried merging your post onto this thread but so far nothing has happened yet, so I have pasted your words on here just incase. Thought I would let you know. Cheers.  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 20, 2010, 11:55:35 pm
Met O weather warning...

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting northern and western parts of the UK on Thursday.

Heavy rain will spread to many areas of the UK during Thursday, particularly northern and western areas, where there will be rainfall totals of around 15 to 25mm.

The rain may turn to snow over parts of Scotland and the higher ground of northern England during the evening.

Rain will be accompanied by strong to gale force southerly winds in places.



Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 21, 2010, 01:13:10 am
Way too early to be getting excited, but GFS is showing widespread snow across Ireland and Britain next Thurs, Fri, and Sat! from that Nly blast.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 21, 2010, 03:56:42 am
Extreme ice storm now happening in the US! - check out Tyler Burg's and Mike Hollingshead's sites to see the amazing images!

Tyler's

http://www.tonightssky.org/

Mike's

http://www.extremeinstability.com/


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 21, 2010, 01:52:57 pm
Look at the rainfall radar over the ROI - torrential

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Tyler on January 21, 2010, 08:23:23 pm
Pretty insane Ice storm about 100 miles NW of here, put a page with about 20 photos together here... http://tonightssky.org/accounts/012010.html



(http://tonightssky.org/images/012010h.jpg)




Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on January 21, 2010, 08:36:15 pm
Ugh ... if it wants to freeze, fine, but let it be dry and cold enough to make the ice amorphous ...


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 21, 2010, 10:00:48 pm
Tyler, that's an awesome report!, the images are fantastic and the ice is just phenomenal. That made for a good read!, congrats on the successful photo session and good luck with the next trip.  :). Thanks again for keeping us up todate.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 22, 2010, 07:34:15 am
That ice storm is surreal, crazy and beautiful all at the same time!  :o 8)

Today is another damp and mild (relative term!) day here, though it looks like tomorrow will be nice - i'm off to Anglesey for the weekend.  I'm kinda half tempted to chuck some astro kit in the car as a clear night could well be on the cards...


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Tyler on January 22, 2010, 07:55:25 am
LOL thunderstorms forecasted later tonight! Can't get much crazier than this winter!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 22, 2010, 03:33:29 pm
That is nuts for Jan! - hope you get them  :)

I had a clear night last night, but today I never saw the Sun due to the fog, so no sunspots observed.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on January 22, 2010, 03:45:11 pm
Quote
I had a clear night last night, but today I never saw the Sun due to the fog
The wind dropped & the rain cleared around 1am here, the sky wasn't clear until 3am, but then it was very good transparency until dawn - bit the seeing was very wobbly. Fog appeared during the morning, gradually thickening but lifting at times into stratus. Managed to get a look at the Sun in rather poor conditions, patchy transparency & seeing so wobbly it was like the Sun was playing on a tramopline!, some images being processed.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 22, 2010, 04:56:17 pm
''Sun was playing on a tramopline'' - that's a great description, never heard that one before with regards to seeing conditions  :)

Night sky was good for sure but by 04.00 the moisture was turning into fog on the roads very rapidly like steam from a kettle, by dawn it was thick fog, and it's been here ever since. Models aren't looking good at all for next week, the cold air hasn't won the battle, now it looks like stagnant high pressure with cloud for a while - not good at all, or interesting, so both the astronomers and weather people in the UK could loose out.  It could be worse, their could be a great comet in the sky and we couldnt see it  :), - who knows what will happen in truth though.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 22, 2010, 06:06:29 pm
Very interesting report Tyler! Such an ice storm like you had is a rare event.

Today Poltava gets again a bit of "Russian winter": it was overcast  in the morning, but shortly after sunrise a clear gap arrived from north, so the sky has completely cleared in the afternoon. Moderate northern wind, the air is dry (55-65% RH during day & night). The temperature now is -16C, dewpoint -23C. I guess it will freeze down to -23C tonight (remember the sky is clear!). But it is going to be just 'cold' tonight, if in a few days ahead the frost will become even stronger. Different forecasts tell the nightly temperature will be -22...-28C - sure looking forward for records!

Interesting fact: today some areas in N & E Siberia were colder than Antarctica: -61.5C recorded. European regions of Russia got significant cold too: -30...-34C in Saratov-Orenburg regions.
Either 'warm countries' aren't warm any more. Bulgaria have got below -20C last night (BTW, northern Black Sea is slowly freezing). In the nearest days Turkey will get -10...-15C almost everywhere, and down to -25C in some mountainous areas; as cold as -5C in Lebanon; nearly freezing or even below freezing in eastern Egypt.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 22, 2010, 07:03:24 pm
Some spectacular scenes captured there Tyler-some good work getting those images in such conditions.         

Fog hasn't lifted all day here and has got pretty dense in the last hour or so.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 24, 2010, 09:38:51 am
Now repeating the records of Jan.2006, but still warmer than in Feb.2006. Tonight Poltava had minimum -26.2C (dewpoint -28C). The same temperatures were in most of NE, N & W regions of Ukraine, except of Ivano-Frankivsk area, where the temperature reached -30...-32C last night. Even coastal areas of Black Sea had something about -20C.

I'm just back home from a short walk to the shop, it is -21C outside, the Sun is shining, no significant wind, so it feels quite warm (if dressing properly as I did).  ;D The sky is wonderfully clear horizon to horizon since yesterday, it is fantastic! 8) Yesterday I observed the first quarter Moon shining high in the sky and the dark-blue sky was merging directly with the Moon's limb, without any noticeble brightening. 


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 24, 2010, 09:51:42 am
Here is Meteoblue's model of min. temperatures for previous night. They have recently adjusted it, but it still indicates the temperatures (for E Europe) 3...5C higher than it actually was.
(http://i50.tinypic.com/rjo9pi.jpg)(http://www.meteoblue.com/images_bluebox/legende_temp.gif)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on January 24, 2010, 12:05:14 pm
Quote
it is -21C outside, the Sun is shining, no significant wind, so it feels quite warm (if dressing properly as I did).  Grin The sky is wonderfully clear horizon to horizon since yesterday, it is fantastic!
Send us a couple of crates of that weather, please!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 24, 2010, 04:46:58 pm
Medium Range Discussion - Issued Sunday 24th Jan

There has been considerable problems with the coming weeks weather, and still today we are seeing oscillations. At present a complex partially disrupted trough is located over the UK with a 300mb centre over the Borders, a bifurcating jet comes to 10W and then splits its energy - being diverted both north and south of UK, as to the north of the low is a partially developing upper high.  All in all this is a very complicated setup..  It is therefore not really a surprise that the models have struggled to resolve it.   The UKMO GM which was keen on a strong and cold easterly a few days ago (GFS had indicated this 1st) have moved towards the ECMWF which was never really supportive of this high remaining over Scandinavia (its present location), with a consensus now for the building high to be brought SW towards the UK and then retrogress into the Atlantic.

The reason for the high unable to stay over Scandinavia and the poor modelling has been the result of the strength of the SW'ly Jet pumping north towards Iceland, earlier GFS and Global Model runs has indicated a weaker Jet and less deep low development. However more recent runs of all the models indicates a very strong nr 190Knt Jet Core and strongly diffluuent left exit region running to the SOuth of ICeland forcing Rapid Cyclogenesis as the low runs into the Norwegian Sea.  THis explosive development results in a quick erosion of contour heights over N Scandinavia and a push SW of the main high Cell.   Therefore the colder air to the east now makes little progress into the east before withdrawing SE - effectively cutting off developments to the North.

The next area to watch is how quickly the high withdraws further west.  The GFS has been keen (until 18Z last night and 00Z Today) to keep high pressure anchored close to SW England and a relatively benign cloudy and dull NW'ly anticylonic flow over the UK.  However the ECMWF and the UKMO GM have been more keen to develop a northerly behind the cold front coming South on Thursday with weak w2aves running down into the Colder air clippping the SW Qudrant of the UK.  The last two runs of the GFS have trended in this direction as well and infact the Ensenble Postage Stamps from the GFS has some very cyclonic solutions with lows running SE anywhere from SW IReland to the Western North SEa.

This is interesting because the models have trended towards a more cyclonic solution - but experience suggests that highs do not withdraw quickly from the waters to the SW of IReland, therefore are they now moving the high away too quickly ?

The answer is related to the speed and extent of the cold advection coming down from the North behind thursday;s cold front and how much warm advection comes north ahead of the low development over Eastern Canada late in the week. The UKMO GM and to a certain degree the ECMWF have a stronger trough coming SE and a deeper low which pushes the high further north to create a more meridional pattern over the NOrth Atlantic by the end of the week

However study of the Ensemble guidance indicates a multitude of different scenarios for the end of the week, largely dependent on the shape, timing of upper trough features crossing Southern Greenland and then southeast towards the  UK.. Trying to attempt any such detail at this range is futile. I think the more interesting aspect of the development is the trends we need to watch to determine greater or less cyclonicity at the end of the week and the extent of meridional extension towards Greenland. 

At this range a cold front comes SOuth on Thursday with wave features running SE bringing Rain.sleet and Snow SE (snow inland and on hills) but extent and locations remain highly speculative.

06Z GFS just seen appears to have the uppper trough a shade further west =again- at the end of the week.

Note - the ECMWF is significantly upgraded this week.  Following successfull trials the Global Horizontal Resolution is being increased to 16KM (Regional NAE is 12KM) The first run will be the 12Z run on Tuesday 26th

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 24, 2010, 07:59:22 pm
Quote
it is -21C outside, the Sun is shining, no significant wind, so it feels quite warm (if dressing properly as I did).  Grin The sky is wonderfully clear horizon to horizon since yesterday, it is fantastic!
Send us a couple of crates of that weather, please!
All I can do is to share with you these shots from my backyard, captured yesterday (Jan.23). It was noon, temperature -16C, can you believe, I was walking there with a wish to sit on a chair and have a bit of sunburn.  ;D

The only two features in a cloudless sky at noon:
(http://i48.tinypic.com/dnk03o.jpg)
(http://i50.tinypic.com/a0dhqt.jpg)

The snow was the same - very clear and dry!  :)
(http://i46.tinypic.com/ix5ci0.jpg)

I only have to regret that I've missed two eclipses last month and this perfect weather is a few weeks late.  :( But on the other hand, I'm going to visit the observatory on tomorrow evening - first time since late October!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 24, 2010, 08:33:03 pm
Splendid observing weather you have there Roman, it actually looks very pleasant, enjoy it  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 25, 2010, 07:43:04 am
Fascinating series of reports Roman!  Looks like the cold is squeezing west again!  I watch with interest towards the end of the week when colder conditions are predicted for the UK - the detail will form up in the models nearer the time.  It's gonna be remembered as an interesting winter this year ;)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on January 25, 2010, 11:25:12 am
Splendid observing weather you have there Roman, it actually looks very pleasant, enjoy it  :)
Unfortunately I don't have enough time to enjoy the starry skies, but this fact sounds wonderful: 62 hours without any clouds or fog (Jan.22 18h to Jan.25 08h EET). Now it is partly cloudy and -11C, last night was a bit warmer (-24C), but western Ukraine still gets -29...-32C.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 26, 2010, 07:21:14 pm
Models are looking very interesting again for UK and Ireland later in the week, weekend, and again the following week with a new cold spell from the N. The potential is there for bitter air, severe frosts and snow. Winter is not over yet by a long shot  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 28, 2010, 11:29:38 pm
Very heavy rainfall here at the min!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 29, 2010, 12:11:59 am
Some quite heavy bursts here too, as least the weather has got its act together-very boring over the past week, now for the cold northerly coming in behind this system  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 29, 2010, 05:56:13 pm
Quite a lively day here with snow showers and hail the size of frozen peas. Quite a snow storm here after 17.00, heavy and blowing horizontal at high speed for a long time.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 29, 2010, 06:02:31 pm
Severe weather warnings from Met Office for NI Fri-Sat...

An area of rain and hill snow across Northern Ireland at present will clear south this evening. As this clears south, skies will clear, allowing temperatures to fall, with widespread ice likely to form on any untreated roads and pavements. The public are advised to take extra care.



Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 29, 2010, 07:59:59 pm
More heavy snow showers here, John and Jonathan also reporting them to the S and SE of Lough Neagh


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 29, 2010, 08:02:29 pm
Yep snowing here as I write this with a good dusting on the ground-seems to sticking too ;D


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 30, 2010, 07:55:50 am
We had a 'flurry' just about 10 minutes before I left work yesterday, however you could see we were on the periphery of the guilty cloud.  I only live about 20 mins walk from work, a mile or so, but the closer to home I got the more and more snow on the ground there was, with a near covering back at mine.  When I went out for my usual friday evening trip to the local pub it was quickly apparent that the snow had partially melted on all the usual thaw surfaces but had then frozen solid under the clear perigee moon skies.   This included the roads too...  Under foot conditions were treacherous with lots of sheet ice.  I dare bet there were quite alot of accidents last night. 

Have woken up to another clear and frosty morning today, with the forecast looking cold and clear for the rest of the day.  Might well just see how much the sun is risingabove my local (city scape :( )horizon - see if I can resume solar observing again...


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 30, 2010, 06:04:55 pm
UKww Weather Watch – Snow and Ice

Valid from: 1630z Saturday 30th - 1800z Sunday 31st January 2010

Areas affected: N Scotland, N Ireland, Wales, W Central England, SW England.

General evolution: Low, ~980mb SW Norway at 00z Sunday, sinks south into the North Sea, filling slowly. Anticyclone over the Atlantic ensures a chilly NNW airflow affecting the UK, this carrying embedded showery troughs.

Forecast: Snow showers continue to affect the N half of Scotland with further accumulations expected, with drifting over exposed/high ground in a stiff Northerly to Northwesterly wind. Further south, more sleet and snow showers are expected to develop and run down the Irish Sea. These will affect N Ireland, Wales, W Central England (the Cheshire Gap effect coming into play) and SW England tonight and through tomorrow, easing later in the day. A few centimetres of snow are possible almost anywhere in the Watch area (sleet is possible, W N Ireland, coastal areas of mid/south Wales, lower ground SW England). However, the showery nature of the snow means that  some areas - most likely exposed ones inland from N facing coasts - are going to be more prone to snowfall; more sheltered places will be less prone to significant snow accumulation. But, at the same time, a moderate overnight frost (-1 down to -3) will develop and ice will be a potential hazard overnight into tomorrow, especially along untreated roads and where showers of whatever form have passed through. Drivers are advised to bear these issues in mind.

UKww will monitor this Watch and update it if necessary.

Issued by JSM for UKww, 1630z, 30/01/2010




Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 30, 2010, 06:21:34 pm
Clear skies tonight, all bar maybe the odd shower coming down the cheshire gap for me - i'm evening refraining from drinking tonight so as to get a view of mars in  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 30, 2010, 10:31:52 pm
Clear skies tonight, all bar maybe the odd shower coming down the cheshire gap for me - i'm evening refraining from drinking tonight so as to get a view of mars in  ::)

Grrrrr, growl, grrrr...

All winter you've probably noticed my enthusiasm for traditional winter weather...  Well tonight i've changed my view!

Went out with the mrs earlier for a curry - "what's up with you? you're not drinking tonight!" she says as we munch away.  "No, i'm out with the scope to look at Mars." I reply...  Well I get back home, lovely clear skies - get the scope out, polar align, blah blah - you know the routine.  In the back of my mind i'm concious there is a band of showers pushing down the cheshire gap - however pretty much anytime this has happended this season the showers have died out just before reaching me.  Not tonight!  All of a sudden I become aware I can feel snow on my face, it's belting it down here - in a matter of minutes the whole place is white over!  Then its the race - I have the lappy and the DMK out with me as I want to get some images, need to get them in quick!  In the mean time the scope and mount is covered by my waterproof blanket and i'm sat back insided twiddling my thumbs...

You watch, we'll have one of the biggest snowfalls of the season tonight, just while all my kit is outside!  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 30, 2010, 11:28:39 pm
Lol Mark, that was a good read, your post sums up the great contrasting battles between the weather and astronomy, it's either one or the other isn't it, and they happen at the wrong time and in the wrong order. Hang in there, you might get a crisp clearance behind those showers. On the bright side, at least you got some snow, I would prefer that to rain.

Very fine snow here now, so fine it's barely visible.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 30, 2010, 11:51:02 pm
Excellent Moon halo visible at the min!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on January 31, 2010, 01:46:16 am
Just went out there for a look that is a huge halo around the moon.    Got a few images of the moon earlier will get them up tomorrow.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 31, 2010, 07:17:37 pm
Very cold day, was up in Glenshane forest area, +1" of snow and several gorgeous snow showers blowing across from the north. Brief snow shower over Maghera after dark too.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Tyler on January 31, 2010, 08:13:26 pm
nice winter sunset over the cathedral and JET?!?!?! LOL


(http://tonightssky.org/images/013010a.jpg)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on January 31, 2010, 08:42:42 pm
Excellent shot Tyler!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: jjb on January 31, 2010, 09:40:37 pm
very nice image Tyler it was cold here today.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on January 31, 2010, 11:24:04 pm
That's a stunner Tyler! - great timing  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 01, 2010, 06:39:49 pm
February 2010 forecast

Summary: CET temperature 2.8C or 1.4C below average*; rainfall 90%* and sunshine 110%*

 *The average February CET 1971-2000 is 4.2C, last February 4.1C, 2008 5.4C. Feb figures updated 17Z 01/02/10

Issued: 31st January 1100GMT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monthly retrospective for January 2010
January was again a cold month- but one of two halves. Though mean temperatures were 3C below average the first half saw them around 6C below whilst the second half was near average. N Scotland was only a degree below average though. This made it the coldest month since January 1987. Rainfall was around 75% across England and Wales but as high as 100% across SE England and the Midlands and only 55% across N Scotland. Sunshine was well above average overall at 124% and especially in the first half of the month and in western UK where 130-150% was recorded. However it was quite dull in places in the second half, especially the east, meaning Eastern Scotland saw just 88%.

The year started rather cold for most; a little less so in the south as snow fell by the 3rd, mainly across E Scotland, NE England and W Wales. Braemar (Aberdeenshire) recorded a minimum temperature of -17C on the 3rd. However the cold continued through the first week and by January 8th the coldest temperature since 1995 was recorded at Altnaharra (Sutherland) of -22.3C (and the coldest this month) with a rare snow cover across almost all of the UK. Many minor roads remained snow covered or icy. Some areas in the south (especially around Reading, Berks) had seen 30cm of level snow fall. Salt & grit supplies were "stretched" with thousands of schools remaining closed whilst rail and air travel were hit by cancellations and delays with emergency services running. Motorway hard shoulders were no longer being gritted as priority for the salt was given to the worst-affected regions. Milk deliveries were disrupted too as the tankers struggled to reach dairy farms with farmers. The 12th saw more snow overnight for many in the south, along with the upland SW too, with 5-10cm quite widely. Temperatures across England and Wales were just -1.9°C, a full -6.1 degrees below average, possibly one of the coldest starts to January ever recorded . By the 15th though the very cold spell was over as much milder weather started to return to many areas and a slow thaw began. Given the amount of snow in many upland areas it took a considerable time to thaw though. On the 16th a balmy 12.3C was recorded at Chivenor (Devon), the warmest temperature this month.

By the 26th after a milder, somewhat uneventful spell for a week or so, somewhat colder weather returned as an arctic northerly blast developed giving further snow in places mainly exposed east and west coasts. The month ended on a cold note as well. Minimum temperatures fell to -8C in the south at Hurn (Dorset) (and Benson, Oxon) on the 30th/31st and -13.3C on the grass at Hurn. The period around the 26th-28th saw unusually coloured sunsets in places also. Atmospheric expert Les Cowley believed the bright pink and dusty orange colours seen could be a type of Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) lit by dust in the upper atmosphere.

Soil temperatures were below average generally esp around East Anglia & the SE & fell markedly by the middle of the month, esp in central, northern England & much of northern, eastern and central Scotland- to well below average with frozen ground common here but rose generally after then to generally somewhat  below average. Sea temperatures remained near or rather above average around most parts though but were below average around the western & SW approaches, east Anglia and Irish Sea by the month's end.

Forecast summary for February 2010 

The first week of February sees a cold north or northerly westerly flow move away initially as weak high pressure ridges over the UK, giving a mainly chilly period at first for most parts but it seems a more S’ly flow will develop across the west by midweek, bringing milder air into the west and SW though keeping the east dry and somewhat colder in the main, with the risk of a few wintry showers and generally some night time frosts and freezing fog. By the weekend low pressure systems in control again for most, giving some milder, wet and windy weather for many, though always a bit drier in the east with some hazy sunshine at times at least initially with hill snow across Scotland later. By week two continuing mainly unsettled & rather cloudy though the east drier with sunny periods and some freezing mist and fog patches by night at times too with some showers, sometimes wintry in the north more especially. Maybe drier in the east later too with high pressure more dominant for a few days at least giving some colder nights centrally & away from coasts in the east. By week three  staying rather unsettled with low pressure close to southern areas and the north east & east generally rather drier but still seeing some rain & showers at times, these wintry in places with snow at times for upland areas especially in any short lived NE'ly spells, as depressions sink & decay SE into the continent with colder weather here at times as a result. By week four, the month ends rather unsettled still with further low pressure areas running SW & overall sunshine in short supply; the south west and Wales probably seeing most in the way of rain or sleet & hill snow with the risk of some significant precipitation in these parts but more settled elsewhere, though there may be some wintry showers at times and some frost and freezing fog by night inland.

Temperatures during the month overall staying near average, with some mild days and nights especially in the west, though below average at times in the east initially and again later in the month.  Near or slightly below above average frosts generally, more especially below average in western areas; eastern parts nearer average. Rainfall near average for most northern and western parts but some eastern & SE areas may be a below average & sunshine near average overall for most parts though the NW may be slightly below.

Sea temperatures a degree below average for most coasts especially around the SW and Irish Sea; soil temperatures rising to become near average for most parts, but maybe slightly below in the east still with soil moisture near average in the east & remaining slightly above average for most other areas, especially in Wales and the SW of England and possibly NW England and S Scotland too. Snowfall generally near or below average for most parts though highland Scotland may see quite a lot at times.

Week 1 1st -7th February

Initially a cold N-NW’ly flow in the east will move away as a weak ridge of high pressure moves up across the west later on. Moderate frosts and localised mist patches at first across many inland areas of Scotland, Wales and England, but further west and NW mainly to cloudy with some wintry showers about. The weak ridge of high pressure moving across to the eastern & central UK by Tuesday though an area of rain sleet or snow associated with a front may try to push NE in the west and central areas giving local accumulations over hills for a time. By midweek any high pressure moving away to the east as the S’ly flow increases across western parts. The west becoming milder & cloudy and the east too after any rain & sleet clears away. After midweek it looks as though the S-SW’ly flow will continue for most with low pressure areas pushing into the west. Some gales or severe gales likely through the SW approaches and Irish Sea & up into W Scotland and N Ireland. However slight frosts are still possible in the north east & east with a lot of low cloud, mist & fog patches about too night and day. By the weekend, it seems that further areas of low pressure will push up from the south west allowing the wet and windy weather to continue in the west; some of the rain heavy at times and followed by blustery showers with some hail and in Scotland hill snow. The east a bit drier and brighter but rain bands will move east and NE here too at times in a strong S- SW’ly wind, becoming more NW’ly later.

Generally becoming less cold as the week progresses, though the east may start below average by day and the SW will be milder initially as well. Rainfall below average in the east initially but then near or above average later on for most parts especially in the west. Sunshine remaining near or rather below average everywhere overall.

Week 2 8th-14th February
By week two continuing mainly unsettled for many as low pressure areas push up west of Ireland with fronts crossing the UK.  Less unsettled with some sunny periods and some freezing mist and fog patches by night in central and eastern areas in any temporary ridges or cols but overall a lot of cloud about for most with limited sunshine. Some wintry showers may affecting the north at times especially over higher ground. By the end of the week as high pressure develops to the east again and perhaps ridges west over the UK, it may become a bit brighter by day with some colder nights too with some frost though the west more likely staying rather cloudy with rain or showers though. 

Temperatures generally above average in the west and in the east too initially, though nearer average in the east later, helped by chillier nights. Sunshine slightly below average for most parts, though perhaps nearer average in the east later with rainfall about average for most parts of the SW, west and NW & central areas but slightly below in eastern & NE’ern areas.

Week 3 15th-21st February looks like staying rather unsettled with low pressure to the south or SW in the main though pushing up and lying across southern or central parts for a time in the period. Some strong winds in the south west and south at times. The east & NE always drier but still generally unsettled with low pressure never far away, in a mainly SE'ly flow. Rain or hill sleet or snow at times for most of England and Wales, mainly localised hill snow in central and southern parts. With high pressure developing to the NE again the lows developing to the west or SW may sink SE into the near continent , allowing for some mainly short lived NE'ly flows for northern & eastern parts especially, strong at times , with rather colder weather here at times as a result.

Temperatures generally near average in this period across most parts but maybe a little below average in the east & NE. Rainfall near average in most parts but perhaps a bit below average across the north with sunshine near or rather below average in the south and SW, though the north and NE may be a little above average. 

Week 4/5 22nd-28th February
Whilst there are no clear signals about the end of February as yet, it will however probably see an unsettled start as further low pressure areas run across or close to the SW and southernmost UK. The west & NW may see some active fronts too though whilst the east sees the best of the drier sunnier slots but overall sunshine in short supply; confidence is low on rain amounts but the south west and Wales probably seeing most in the way of rain or sleet & hill snow as low pressure and associated fronts slide east across these parts with the risk of some significant precipitation in these parts. Always more settled in the east though a few wintry showers around coasts at times and some frost and freezing fog by night inland.

Temperatures staying near or a little below average for most parts, though maybe near average or mild locally in the west & SW at times, rainfall near average for the west, south west and south, below average in the NE. Sunshine generally near average on the whole though slightly above average in the north and NE. 

Dave Wiseman
UKww Executive/C & M Manager/Warnings team


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 02, 2010, 05:20:33 pm
From Irish Weather Network...

There is a clash of airmass across Ireland later on this evening and overnight. A band of rain moving in from the south with mild S'ly winds will extend NE across Ireland later. However over N Ireland, cold air is filtering down from the north. As the rain pushes in and meets the cold air, some snow may occur to lower levels but any accumulation looks likely over 150m for a time.

Snow will affect most of NI with parts of Sligo, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal in the risk zone. The risk for snow to lower levels increases the further north you go.
Some snowfall may occur over the Wicklow mtns for a time also giving a few cms.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 02, 2010, 05:24:19 pm
There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting Northern Ireland on Wednesday.

Heavy snow on Wednesday morning will turn to rain in the afternoon. Accumulations of around 2 cm of snow are possible quite widely, locally 5 cm especially over high ground.



Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 02, 2010, 09:46:22 pm
UKww Weather Warning – Snow

Valid from: 0900Z Wednesday 3rd - 2339Z Wednesday 3rd February 2010

Areas affected: S Scotland, N Wales, NW England, NE England.

General evolution: Warm front moves slowly NE across warning area bringing rain turning readily to snow overnight.

Forecast: Outbreaks of rain and sleet will turn to snow by noon tomorrow in N Wales then by the afternoon in the NW of England and later NE England and southern and central Scotland.  A few centimetres of snow are possible almost anywhere in the Watch area (sleet is more likely around coastal areas). There may be some significant snow accumulation of 3-7cm but up to 10-15cm over high ground. The snow will slowly turn to sleet & rain again after noon tomorrow. A slight overnight frost (0C down to -1C) will develop and ice will be a potential hazard also overnight into tomorrow, along with some low visibilities, especially along untreated roads. Drivers are advised to bear these issues in mind.
UKww will monitor this warning and update it if necessary.

Issued by DJW for UKww, 2130z, 02/02/2010



Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on February 02, 2010, 11:01:47 pm
Cold air here now with clear skies and ground frost, that band of precip is very slow moving over the Republic but we should see some snow from this I hope. :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 02, 2010, 11:38:05 pm
The main BBC news forecast tonight gave 'significant accumulations for us'


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 02, 2010, 11:46:23 pm
Alert from Netweather....

Weather type:
Snow and Ice

Alert risk period:
02/02/10 21:00 until 04/02/10 08:00

Alert details:
Low pressure over the North Sea this evening pulls cold N to NW flow south across the UK, with snow showers feeding in across the Northern Isles, Highlands, Eilean Siar, Moray and northern Aberdeenshire tonight and into tomorrow morning, giving up to 5cm in places, perhaps up to 10cm over high ground and over Shetland and Orkney. Treacherous driving conditions are possible on untreated roads. Widespread ice will form on any untreated roads and pavements where showers have fallen today and tonight across northern parts of the UK.

During Wednesday, a frontal zone will start to move NE across England and Wales with rain across S Wales and S England in the morning turning to snow as it moves NE into colder air across N Wales, N Midlands, N England and N Ireland during Wednesday afternoon and across Scotland in the evening. Accumulations of 3-5cm are possible at lower-levels, perhaps 5-10cm over higher ground. This will lead to treacherous driving conditions in places, particularly over higher routes. Band of snow turning back to rain at lower levels should clear northern England in the early hours and Scotland during Thursday morning. Ice is possible where skies clear on untreated surfaces.

Confidence: 80%
Issued by Nick Finnis for Netweather.tv


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on February 03, 2010, 07:36:51 am
Will be interesting to see if wednesdays band of weather delivers me any snow - I suspect lack of altitude will mean rain is more likely, I could be wrong though!  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on February 03, 2010, 08:52:12 am
Well im at roughly 65m asl here and its been snowing lightly now for almost an hour, its falling onto frozen ground so its lying :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on February 03, 2010, 11:34:29 am
2cm+ here now and continuing to fall at mod/heavy rate and starting to stick on the main road outside my house.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 03, 2010, 12:50:54 pm
Plenty of snow falling here, heavy, and been going for hours  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 03, 2010, 06:05:33 pm
Next week could be 'interesting' with a Siberian blast from the east and snow storms!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on February 03, 2010, 07:12:11 pm
Next week could be 'interesting' with a Siberian blast from the east and snow storms!

Indeed, winter is still with us for a while yet it seems.  I wonder if we'll have record warm temperatures come easter time - wouldn't surprise me!  :)

Anything has got to be better than today, cold rain with occasional sleet, wish it was a few degrees cooler  :P


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on February 03, 2010, 07:54:37 pm
Well, it snowed (big flakes) here for a couple of hours, but didn't stick - just thoroughly miserable really. Now cold & cloudy, but the air is so damp that even if it does clear there will be thick fog almost immediately.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 04, 2010, 07:41:17 pm
Republic of Ireland getting very intense rainfall now - torrential.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 04, 2010, 07:42:44 pm
Here's a pic of the snow here yesterday

(http://i49.tinypic.com/2wgw68l.jpg)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 05, 2010, 02:28:58 am
Thunderstorm forecast for S Britain and S Ireland Fri...

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/mode-forecast/id-283/


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on February 05, 2010, 12:31:25 pm
Some very heavy rain in Cork/kerry area now with possible T-storms.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 06, 2010, 03:07:10 pm
FORECAST FOR Monday 8th February- Sunday 14th February 2010 

ISSUED 6th February 1100Z 

POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE PERIOD- Severe frosts and freezing fog inland at night.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WEEKLY SUMMARY
 
Much of the week will see a rather cold NE’ly flow across the south & east but high pressure will be more dominant in the north, ridging south down across western parts by midweek. Later, as the high pulls away north again a more east north easterly flow will develop for all areas keeping it mainly dry away from the east & SE but quite cold, especially by night with severe frosts. Some snow showers near the east and SE coasts working inland at times. By the weekend high pressure across the north again with a slightly less cold ENE’ly flow for most, giving some wintry sunshine with night frost and maybe freezing mist or fog patches but it may stay rather cloudier with wintry flurries or showers in the east.

Monday 8th looks likely to see high pressure well north of Scotland and an cloudy ENE’ly flow over most parts. An early slight frost and localised mist patches at first across some inland areas of Scotland, Wales and midland England, but mainly too cloudy with some wintry showers about near the east coasts.  The mist and cloud clearing slowly to give some sunny periods in the west and central parts by day but still wintry showers in the east with hill snow & maybe some soft hail. Another frost with a few freezing mist or fog patches reforming by evening in the north and north west & icy patches also, when any cloud clears away, generally though staying cloudier for many with some light wintry flurries continuing in the east. Temperatures well below average at 1-3C in most areas today, may be up to 5C in the far SW, but only 0C across upland areas of the UK such as the Highlands.

Tuesday 9th will probably see a weak ridge of high pressure run south across western parts introducing a more N-NEly flow in the east. Slight or moderate frost in western areas at first then mainly dry with sunny periods developing in the north, south and west. A few flurries in the east near coasts and generally more cloud here all day. Another frost soon reforming by evening in the north and west, especially in valleys, a few icy patches and some freezing mist & fog patches & low cloud possible too. Temperatures not as cold as on Monday but generally staying below average at 3 to 5C but only 1C in the Highlands. 

Wednesday 10th looks to see the high pressure ridge still across the west with high pressure near Scotland. Some shower bands of wintry pptn may occur over NE England esp close to coasts staying more or less in situ by day. Frosty elsewhere to start with freezing fog patches & some icy patches about, clearing slowly with sunny periods developing. By evening a frost setting in again after dusk in many inland areas with some mist patches too but generally cloudier in the Ne and down east coasts and too breezy for any frost. Temperatures feeling chilly at 2-4C in most parts though in the SW and far west more like 4-6C but only 0C over the Scottish Highlands.

Thursday 11th looks likely to see a E-NE’ly flow continue for most with high pressure to the north still as the western ridge retreats north. A moderate -severe frost possible at first away from coasts, possibly some freezing mist or fog patches about but a bit more cloudy generally at times in the east and NE with wintry showers near the coasts. By day through central & western parts dry with sunny periods. The SE may see more in the way of wintry showers at times more esp in east Suffolk & Kent, where some more significant accumulations of 5-10cm are likely. Another moderate frost setting in, with some localised freezing mist & fog patches, for many inland after dusk. Max temperatures about 1-2C generally so a colder day but more like 3-6C in the west and SW esp near western coasts.

Friday 12th seems likely to see high pressure over Scotland still with a NEly flow in the south and east. Some low cloud about in the east with wintry flurries again at times adding a few cm locally to the covering in the east and SE especially over high ground. Elsewhere an early moderate or severe frost is likely with icy patches about but generally dry and  bright as any fog or low cloud clears by day. Another frost by evening in the west & north but mainly too cloudy in the east and SE for this as wintry flurries continue. Temperatures generally 1-2C by day for most though up to 4C around the NW and SW coastal counties but more like -0C over the Highlands.

Saturday 13th and Sunday 14th seem likely to see high pressure pull back well to the NW of Scotland with a NE’ly flow established across most parts. The long sea track will allow it to warm up though a bit before the airmass reaches the east coasts. However, still overall cold with night  frosts & freezing mist & fog patches inland in places away from coasts, mins generally as low as -5C to -2C but the Highlands and prone areas esp valleys inland across England may see as low as -8C. Generally always brighter by day in the west after early mist and fog clears away but the risk of some wintry flurries or longer spells of snow in the east though they may well be of sleet or rain nearer eastern coasts. Some wintry showers or outbreaks of mainly light snow reaching well inland too. Temperatures over the weekend by day will likely be rather cold for most areas at 2C to 4C, possibly only -1C in the Highlands but more like 3-6C in the SW, S & W Wales & N Ireland.

FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK

*Some fog or freezing fog patches, mist and low cloud inland through the week & weekend esp in northern & western parts
*Some moderate-severe frosts overnight more esp in central and northern parts with icy patches at times if there’s any standing water
*Wintry outbreaks with some snow in eastern & SE areas at times esp from midweek with some accumulations in places likely

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate-high becoming moderate by Friday

Dave Wiseman
UKww Executive/C & M Manager/Warnings team



Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on February 06, 2010, 06:01:25 pm
Looks like another chilly week is on the cards again!  I just hope there's some clear patches so we get some blue sky.  I've just bought a 2nd etalon for my solar scope so I expect cloud for a good while yet  :P

I'm being hopeful for tuesday - its GCSE astronomy day at school, and if its clear the solar scope will be going into work with me ;)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 06, 2010, 07:40:13 pm
This thread will follow the synoptic evolution of the upcoming colder spell of weather...

Friday's low is now moving away SE, pushed SE into Europe by a WNW Jet Core running into the Mediterranean Sea, marked warm advection is amplifying a marked Omega Block to the west of the UK, to the NE a strong trough is being forced SE as it comes up against a large block over Siberia.  A strong Jet Stream is leaving the Eastern United States. Marked High level warming continues to be noted above 200mbs in the Polar Region.

The upper pattern looks set to become markedly blocked over the coming week with high pressure developing across Northern REgions as the strong trough moves SE and disrupts to the ESE of the British Isles.  Whilst there is now reasonable agreement on this - there is a wide variety of detail differences which will need to be ironed out over the coming days.

A fairly sunny and mild day across parts of the SW and South today with 10C being recorded in places , however the airmass is cooling slowly and the b/l is deepening.  The Norrth Sea has filled in with low cloud today as this process has continued, and the holes over Eastern England have filled in (HRV Imagery shows this).  Remaining breaks across the South and West will fill in tonight, though west of the Welsh mountains and maybe the far SW - seeing some breaks continuing.  Becoming chilly overnight with increasingly low visibilities as we go through the night - though the NAE has gone somewhat into overdrive with its <50m areas, however the general idea of a deterioration in vis and cloud, mist and patchy fog develop is consistent with other models. 

Sunday is a colder and duller day for most, though some sunshine over parts  of Western Scotland and Western Coastal areas of England and Wales. Elsewhere largely cloudy and dull, the B/L continuing to slightly deepen and this allow for an increasing risk of drizzle and later snow grains to develop as colder 850mb and 950mb air is advected SW (slow but steady cold advection from now on)

Later on Sunday a Shortwave comes down the N Sea, this has some weak vorticity forcing assoc with it and will increase ascent sufficiently enough to generate some light Rain/ Sleet and Snow  across the East and SE, this producing 1-2cm across inland SE and E Anglia, though the ground is somewhat warmer so accumulations slow to generate in most places.  Again dull in most places away from the West.

Now as we go through the week, the High and its assoc upper blocking ridges NE towards the Faeroes as the cold block slips South over Scandinavia, then into Germany and the Netherlands.  There is considerable variation in the shape, speed and orientation of this trough as it disrupts.  A quick study of the EPS and GFS Ensemble postage stamps indicates the spread in solutions which mean detail differences in the actual weather even though the overall trend is clear.  There is reasonable agreement from the main deterministic models of the GFS, UKMO GM and High Res ECWMF, of the trough coming SSW into the Netherlands and Western Germany, then it slips South, with an arm reaching NW and rotating SW across the UK with an easterly airflow becoming established after that.  The ECM has been insistent that the build of pressure to the North of the UK (to the rear of the confluent part of the trough) will be greater than the UKMO, with the GFS somewhat undecided about exactly how much it wants to build pressure.  The 06Z and 12Z Operational Runs have seen lower pressures than their corresponding 00 and 18Z Runs.   The ECMWF was somewhat at the top of Its ensemble range with the pressure build - though it would not surprise me to see the ECM being proved correct, but perhaps a compromise of 4-5mbs off the ECM would be more appropriate. 

Sunnier weather comes SW into most parts mid week, but with increasing Snow Showers in eastern parts.  Cold in these areeas, and feeling cold everywhere - though in the sun, numerically it wont be that low 3-5C in most places, though over higher ground 1-4C and generally colder later in the week as the lower level airmass comes from a less maritime source.  Frost occuriung overnight where skies are clear- dropping to nr zero where cloud persists.

Risk of more significant Snow across the SE and East Anglia later on Weds and Thursday as the cold pool arrives and swings forcing SW towards these areas. SNow becoming heavier and more persistent leading to some accumulations in places with a cold wind.  Kent and E Anglia seeing potential for more Sig Snow. A colder end to the week - Daytime Maxes largely 1-3C, though a little milder in the WEstern and Northern Areas and sub zero over High Ground.

The cold pool sinks SE away for Friday with a cold Easterly, the 12Z GFS brings another cold pool west into the Weekend as does the ECMWF (though the ECM is much slower with the 1st one so its correspondingly slower with the 2nd) with an increasing Risk of more general sleet / Snow developing.

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 07, 2010, 06:20:33 pm
Well the Gloom has arrived !  HRV imagery this morning confirms a fiarly uniformed blanket of Stratus covering most of the UK. The 00Z Ascents indicate a fairly deep inversion with a moist b/l (Ekofisk has it to around 8000ft with extremely dry air above this)

West is best in this set up and cloudbreaks are evident over SW Scotland, Cumbria, NW Wales (doing v well) and parts of the SW.  The cloud Fields from the 16KM ECMWF and 12 KM NAE are doing quite well and comparison of the T+9 fields vs HRV Imagery confirms the models are doing ok, though both miss the hole over the English Channel.  Stratus is more liable to break over Western Areas through today, whilst over the east its likely to continue to be very dull with an increasing trend towards drizzle (and tonight Snow grains developing) as the B.L deepens further as a shortwave runs around the developing ridge to the NW of the UK.

There continues to be rather large disagreement on the shape and orientation of the upcoming trough disruption (you only have to compare the 00Z GFS, vs 06Z GFS to see this let alone other models)

For Tuesday and Weds, there is reasonable agreemnt on a fairly anticyclonic N'ly / NNE'ly covering most parts - but with colder air in place in the east - some snow showers are likely to occur- Wet Bulb Freezing Levels are around 200-300m meaning snow above 100-150m generally with any accumulations minimal below 200m. Sunshine further west, but with Frosts overnight which could be sharp in places under the ridge axis.

Later in the week - the cold pool comes SSW into Germany (intensity and speed rather uncertain) and then swings a lobe of this west across the UK introducing a ENE flow.  However the GFS, UKMO and ECM seem to entangle a weak thermal zone coming SSW from Western Norway into the trough as it comes west, with assoc complications w.r.t snow and sleet coming west.  Detail impossible at this range - other than to say - a more cyclonic and potentially more wintry end to the week, esp in the east and Southeast. 

Though confidence is low for detail - moderate for overall evolution...  However given the cold pool is weakening as it disrupts, this spell does not look esp severe at this stage either in terms of snowfall or low temps.

Paul


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 10, 2010, 05:33:07 pm
I'm really liking the GFS model run for next week, if the model run does indeed get support then we could be seeing a Nly or NEly air flow by Mon onwards with a chance of heay snow showers from a possible polar low. Also, there's just enough instability over inland areas to produce widespread convection - thundersnow is a possiblity.  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on February 10, 2010, 06:02:15 pm
Hey guys,

I hadn't visited the forum for a while, as well as I didn't thoroughly monitor the weather conditions. But the weather doesn't let me to forget about itself. I spend a few hours each day cleaning snow in my yard - the depth is already 35cm (14 inch)! It is the biggest amount here since 2004. More good news: it is snowing this evening, and the forecast for 4 next days is (guess what?)  ;D blizzards and wet snow! Phew, we can easily get 40cm tomorrow!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on February 10, 2010, 07:53:48 pm
Very nice Roman can u send some over here now please, although as Martin says our chances of some snow next week are looking promising and thats all im saying...... :-X


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 12, 2010, 04:41:49 pm
That's nuts Roman - share some of that with us  :)

08Z Update 12th Feb

Subtle changes today, the European vortex which has dominated the headlines over the past day or so has sunk south into the Med (bringing snow to much of France incl the Riviera) and is now producing convection over the Med.  The cold pool of air (sub 516dam) has now warmed out somewhat and also slid away towards the SE, although the Upper low and inverted omega block persists over much of Europe.

The upper blocking high has re-orientated overnight and over the next 48hrs will slip slowly NW'wards as developments push it towards Greenland (both warm advection to the west and cold advection west of Svalbard)

A weak thermal zone containing a more maritime airmass has sunk around the high over the last 24hrs and is now covering the UK except the far SE, Outbreaks of rain,sleet still affecting the SE, bits of Snow above 200m, but WBFLs behind climb to around 500-600m meaning that Snow is unlikely from the showers coming into Eastern England exceppt over the Pennines and perhaps the higher parts of the N Yorks Moors.

Sunny this morning in the SW, parts of Wales and N England, but a lot of cloud elsewhere.  Clear areas likely to go into Fog tonight - esp towards the north where gradients fall out.

This evening and tonight another shortwave comes SSW from Denmark and the flow across the South veers somewhat and becomes less maritime.  850mb temps and WBFLs fall away again, with negative WBPTs coming back into the SE by 00Z and spreading west across other Southern parts overnight so that a cold end to the night is likely.   Into the Weekend and we alsmost have a repeat with less cold trying to come down from the north (more Atlantic Maritime influence and the colder air across the south.  Eventually the less cold air wins, but again light rain, sleet and patchy snow comes south across parts leading to a cold and grey weekend for some whilst others see more in the way of sunshine.  The NAE is considerably faster with the higher WBPT coming south, the GFS is slower along with the UKMO GM ans the High Res ECM delays until sunday the less cold air moving south and actually re-introduces snow showers to eastern Kent for a time tomorrow. We will see.

Into next week and there is considerable differences in the detail in an increasingly cyclonic pattern across the UK.  A Major trough extends SW from the Norwegian Sea as the high withdraws NW towards Greenland and the Davis Straight.  The extent and position of the trough and assoc surface depression is however not in agreement between modells.  There is more agreement for Monday into Tues as an occluding from comes southeast perhaps turning to snow ahead of it and behind it as warmer air is squeezed out, though this remains highly uncertain. The 00Z Models today having less of a snow signal than some of their predessors.  Speed and orientation of the band as it comes SE questionable even at this stage - and needs to be firmed up over the weekend.

Beyond that the models are not in agreement with the postiioning of the trough and low, and there is inter model and intra model disagreement. The GFS has however somewhat consistently preferred the Cog of the low to end up in a more easterly location that the UKMO GM or ECMWF, therefore maintaining a somewhat colder theme across the UK.  The ECMWF and UKMO prefer to keep the Cog of the low towards the west with higher WBPT and less in the way of cold air except across the more northern areas over highground.  A number of GFS ensembles  also keep the low centre further west, hence the weight of evidence suggests the ECM/UKM solution gains most support with the GFS colder scenario maintained as a lower prob solution at this stage - but its all subject to change.  The ECM for example had more cold air around on its 12Z Run last night than its 00Z sol today.

The far south and SW look relatively less cold anyway in all solutions.

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 12, 2010, 11:40:03 pm
Looks like the first true inland convection of the year could happen next week, much earlier than expected. Models are going for up to 400 CAPE for ROI, SW Britain and Wales mid to late next week so there's a real chance of thunderstorms!. NI missed out on the great CAPE but still enough inland instability to get convective showers (poss Wintry) going, however with so much change going on between high and low pressure anything is possible!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on February 14, 2010, 09:50:22 pm
Some more fun weather here. After another moderate snowfall on Fri-Sat night, the average depth is 35cm, but in the places where the snow is dumped the height is up to 0.7...1.5, even 2 meters (yes!). On Saturday evening we had several hours of rain ...while he the temperature was -4C  :o , you can imagine, everything was covered with a layer of ice. Later the same night it had turned into snowfall, adding a few fresh centimeters of wet snow. Today the temperature rose to +3C at noon, all that amount of snow started to melt, and there was dense fog in the afternoon.
Forecast for Mon-Tue looks different again: temperature drop to -3...-10C (more ice on the roads!) and more snow.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 14, 2010, 10:14:32 pm
Update - 14th FEB 10.15Z

A forecaster's nightmare this week - with temps at the crucial level where 1 degree either way will make the difference between Rain/ Snow.

Synoptically - The slow moving high which has been anchored nr NW Scotland for most of the week, is now slipping away NW as a result of warm advection off the east coast of N America and strong cold advection and cyclogenesis occuring over the Norwegian Sea.  OVer the coming days this low will slip SE, and then rather against normal protocal will extend SW (comes up against raising contour heights in SE Europe, will be steered SSW over the British Isles, with a deep layer cold pool extending SW just to the west of the UK, whilst at the same time the old cold pool over Europe is steered NNW.  Overtime both pools are modified by convective latent heat release, but over the UK there will remain an awkward temp level which will mean that either rain/sleet or snow is possible - largely dependent on time of day, wind, altitude and precip intensity. The worse mix of all for forecasting.

Initially we have cold air hanging on in the SE, and another weak baroclinic zone is trying to bring more modified Atlantic air SE, and warmer air is trying to push the cold air SE. Snow being reported this morning from Biggin Hill, Odiham, Stansted, Gatwick.  Snow largely above 200M elsewhere an awkward mix of rain & sleet.

A very sunny morning over Wales, Midlands, this tending to give way to a more cloudy regime as the day progresses, with lght rain breaking out over the Irish Sea later today.

As the new low comes SSW, it extends a front SE across the UK, initially rain falling into 400-600 WBFLs so largely rain, except over the Grampians where more snow will fall esp as some of the cold air gets dragged in from the European cold pool as it moves NW.  The front moves SE into Tuesday and becomes slow moving from the IOW to the Wash (within 100 miles or so). The ECMWF has the rainband a tad further NW than the GFS, UKMO in between the two.

Its overnight into Weds that it becomes very difficult to forecast.  The front will not only be sat nearly stationary overnight, but will entrain slowly a more continental airmass.  So a mixture of overnight temp falls, latent heat release through precip and colder air and lightwinds will make the band increasingly transition to Snow. Areas N and NE of London see most likely - The ECMWF has lower dewpoints at the time than the GFS and is more keen on turning the front to Snow (though 06Z GFS has more snow by 06Z than its predecessor (better))

4-6cm possible and up to 10cm in places cannot be ruled out - though considered low prob at this time as front will be weakening. (20%)

The front slowly dying out on Weds before more rain spreads from the SW later in the day as a low comes ENE across England at the end of the week.  This low will have cold air to the NW again the ECMWF has colder 850mb temps and dewpoints than the GFS, meaning a high prob of snow to the N and W of the low as it moves across to the N Sea.  Areas around N Wales, NW England the most likely areas to see some heavier snow falling as we go into the end of the week.  GFS 00Z had a strong snow signal also - though 06Z less so (all very marginal and as stated above 0.5 degrees both in terms of low pressure positioning and temp levels makes a lot of difference this week) However There is reasonable agreement on some heavier snow around the Merseyside, Manchester areas of the Populated NW - 5-10cm possible (maybe more) needs careful watching - esp intp Thursday night and first thing on Friday.

Another front comes east into Saturday with again cold air firmly in places across the north, rain in west wales, and the SW will turn to snow across the N Midlands, N England. ECMWF has a strong snow signal into Sat night with rain turning to heavy snow in places esp over 100m, but in heavier areas down to sea level.   

It could end up being a fairly wintry week in parts - esp the north, but not only on high ground.  The coastal west and SW the most definate areas to stay on the milder side of the rain/snow boundary.

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: scott86 on February 15, 2010, 02:48:14 pm
Some very ominous convective showers about to hit lisburn! Let there be lightning! :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 15, 2010, 04:33:24 pm
Plenty of big showers here today too, rain, sleet, and hail, one had a very long gust front. These could turn to snow later, and again over the next few days. Could be a chance of thundery showers on Wed, although it's low risk. Met Eirean have mentioned thunder on their forecast for Wed.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on February 15, 2010, 07:20:07 pm
Had sleet here today in one of the heavier showers, feeling very cold out but good to see lots of showers racing by and lots of potential for the rest of the week :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on February 16, 2010, 07:17:27 pm
Again, again... a snowfall last night caused the depth of snow covering to increase from 35 to 41cm (the highest since 2004). Cleaning all this snow becomes a boring job... although I spend most of my free time doing this, I still can't clean the roads & roofs in my yard.
Now we expect to have a short break (along with temperature drop down to -18C next night), but next weekend will bring more rain/sleet/snow, so 41cm is possibly not the highest of this year. By the way, northeastern regions of Ukraine have almost twice as more - 50...80cm.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 16, 2010, 07:52:48 pm
The rest of this week into Sunday looks interesting - weak to moderate low end CAPE over NW, W, and central Ireland/ NI, especially on Sun when there could be 400-500 CAPE in W areas. There's certainly potential there for the first convection of the year and thunder!.

There was thunder over London today.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on February 17, 2010, 08:22:12 am
Well I thought I was seeing things when I looked out the window this morning-everything is white again, just measured it there at 5cm! Was this snow forecast cause if it was I missed it?  Nice surprise though :) :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 17, 2010, 05:40:57 pm
I think that snowfall caught the forecasters off guard for sure, definitely wasn't mentioned on the TV. I was actually watching that cell over your area during the early morning hours via radar and it had a strong signature, thought there was going to be lightning from it at one stage. Could be more snow surprises in store over the next 10 days.

Look at ATD sferics...TONS of lightning over the Atlantic, W of Ireland.

Seen convection today, some ok updraught towers and a fairly big cell over Lough Neagh. All inflow, no anvils, but good to see again.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 17, 2010, 06:17:05 pm
Lightning!

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 17, 2010, 07:51:55 pm
19Z Update - 17th Feb

Headline - The Forecaster's headache continues with an awkward mix of Rain, Sleet and Snow for many over the coming few days.  The very low latitude Jet and inherently cold polar maritime air across the UK leading to areas of Heavy Rain, Sleet and Snow.... The hardest thing will be where, how much and when.

Situation

ON the 12Z 500mb Chart, a deep longwave trough is anchored just to the west of the British Isles with a high ridging north to Greenland and the Davis Straight.  At the surface, the old surface circulation which sank SSW to be off the SW coast of Ireland has now reached as far south as its going to get.  it will drift ENE over the next 48hrs as the longwave moves east. The main polar front jet remains well south of the UK, and is continuing to bring Atlantic Frontal Systems into the Iberian Pensinusla and another storm system is moving through the Canary Islands. (70mm in the last 72 hrs at Malaga and reports of quite bad flooding along the South Coast, and 26mm at Arrecife in Lanzarote)

The front which ground to a halt over the SE yesterday has been pushed NNW today and is now weakening under collapsing thermal and upper forcing and will continue to degenerate overnight (has brought a spell of Snow to parts of East Wales, West Midlands today esp over the High Ground)  The heavy snow across NE Scotland from yesterday has largely died out and a quieter spell of weather is expected here as activity switches to areas further S

Evolution

The low to the SW is the key.  The GFS has now finally come onboard with the evolution forecasted some days ago by the ECMWF and the UKMET in forecasting the low to the SW to move NE and develop an active occlusion as a shortwave trough rounds the base of the longwave trough and engages it, In addition a strengthening SW Jet stream over N France tomorrow aids both the Shear Vorticity on the low's NW Flank and also increase the baroclinicity across the Occlusion.   The ECM was originally too far north 72hrs ago but the signal for a potential snow scenario has been present and highlighted in my posts above.   There is now reasonable agreement on the low coming ENE over the next 48hrs to be in the N Sea by Friday.  As the low moves NE it organises and the front becomes more consolidated, as this engages some cold air over the N of the UK it sucks it into the Circulation and we see the potential for a heavy spell of Snow to develop across the area from SE Wales to Eastern England - incl the populous areas of the Midlands later tomorrow.

The low initially comes into the SW tonight as a largely convective affair (some heavy rain, hail and thunder possible with deep layer cold air assoc with the upper low moving NE.  During the omorrow an occlusion type feature tends to form lying NE to SW across S England with a wrap around feature eventually curling around the Low.  The precip a mix of convective but increasingly dynamic (thermal based) with time.  The precip coming into the SW and South Coast tonight and then slowly extending NE tomorrow.  As the precip sets in any rain is increasingly likely to turn to snow across SE Wales (possibly N Devon and Exmoor - though this is uncertain) and then extend NE so that by 18Z tomorrow , showers or rain/snow cover most of England and the Se'ern half of WAles.  The main Snow on the NW flank of the low as cold air is engaged.  This combined with darkness, light winds will mean that latent heat is released and drags the WBFL down from its 200-300m to nr the surface.   The GFS is somewhat quicker with the process than either the UKMO NAE, GM or the High Res ECMWF .

COmparison of the Low at 18Z tomorrow, we have the GFS at West London 986mbs, UKMO NAE 985mbs over Weymouth, UKMO GM 988mbs West Sussex and ECMWF 987mbs Bournemouth.  Therefore the available evidence suggests the GFS is a little quick both with the low.  However this seems to make little difference to the precip field which is similar in all models.  The ECM, NAE and GFS all have 10-15mm widely across the region with peak amounts of 20-25mm across the Midlands.  Snow depths are greatest from SE Wales across GLoucs, Herfordshire, Shropshire, all of the Midlands into Lincs and Eastern England. ROughly NW of a line from Norfolk to Swindon to EXmoor.  Rainfall equivs are not expressively converted to snow equiv as precip may start as rain and leave the ground wet. However both the GFS and UKMO NAE generate between 8-15cm of Snow across these areas with a few isol grid poiints above 15cm by FRiday morning over the higher ground of the Midlands. Given the heavy wet nature of the snow - disruption is highly likely if the snow does set in.  the snow could be quite persistant across the Midlands in particular as the developing wrap around devleops.

There is considerable uncertainty with regards the speed the low moves away. The NAE still having the low over Essex at the same time the GFS has it over the Western North Sea. As a result the precip lingers for longer across Eastern England.  The ECM is a compromise between the two as is the UKMO GM. Expect most of the precip to be gone by 09Z on Friday Morning, though the lingering wrap around adds another few cms across Lincs, the far east Mids and into Cambridgeshire and Rutland

Friday is quieter for most - but colder air (sub 522 TT) has spread to even southern England by then. The GFS and UKMO GM run a wave along the English Channel on Saturday, bringing another area of Rain/Sleet and Snow NE, the ECM is not keen on this - so uncertainty remains here.

Into next week - there is considerable uncertainty =still= w.r.t the low moving NE from La Coruna.  The GFS is oscillating between bringing a developed low NE and degenerating the system to a flat wave.  It seems the model cannot decide whether to develop the foreward or rearward centre- and in the case of the 12Z GFS it doesnt decide and degenerates into a flabby pressure system.   The GFS Ensemble indicates a variety of solutions - but the postage stamps suggest the operational run is in the minority and that the majority favour a much more cyclonic scenario portrayed by the UKMO GM  which has consistently brought the low close to SE England.  The 12Z ECM is at the other end of the extreme and takes the low NE further NW and takes frontal precip towards the borders. 

In essence to the NW of the low cold air is engaged and wherever this ends up being another area of Snow is likely to develop with rain to the South and SE of the low.  It needs careful watching.

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on February 17, 2010, 10:13:58 pm
They even admitted on bbc newsline this evening that the snow today had caught them out, lol thats why i love the weather so much-its unpredictability!  Traffic chaos here with the morning rushhour a nightmare, I heard of a 4-5 mile queue of traffic on the Dromore to Irvinestown road that was simply going nowhere and the police were stopping traffic on other roads and telling them to turn around and go home!   Back to normal now with a good thaw during the day but freezing fog has formed now with ice a danger.     
          Impressive amount of lightning out in the Atlantic alright with a few recent strikes off the coast of mayo-will definitely be monitoring the weather over the next few days :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 17, 2010, 11:49:20 pm
Looked like a great show Paul, when I was watching it on the radar I wished I was there incase there was lightning.

fri, Sat, Sun has unstable air over Ireland/N. Ireland, certainly looks interesting at this range. Heavy showers of rain, hail, or snow with a risk of thunderstorms in W, NW and SW areas. Time will tell though. Maybe time to start the first convective thread of 2010. Netweather have a forecast out for far W Ireland shore regions and S Britain Thurs.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 18, 2010, 01:29:07 pm
Good convection going up here today. Fantastic tall, crisp/solid updraught towers, in fact the best I have ever seen in Feb.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on February 18, 2010, 01:56:55 pm
The frost and fog has only just cleared here in the last hour, very hard frost last night. I think I can just make out the top of some convective clouds to my N-N/E.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 19, 2010, 09:03:03 pm
Just seen a bright blue flash of lightning tonight among the stars, must have been very distant though because there was barely a cloud in the sky, possibly from the NE or E direction.

Earlier today we had some pretty decent cold air convection with impressive large cbs with good anvils to the N, NE, and S, SE. The two cells S of Slieve Gallion, in the Cookstown and Lough Neagh region, looked the best of the day with tall anvils and an overshooting top, all of which looked impressive for this time of year this far inland.



Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on February 20, 2010, 10:23:32 am
Getting really fed up of this .... solid cloud with intermittent hail (yesterday) / snow (overnight) despite forcast for "clear sky". In the gaps between the showers the sky is filled with a solid mass of high cloud, probably overgrown CuNim anvils.

About an inch of snow on the ground this morning.
(http://www.bbhvig.uklinux.net/IMG_6841.jpg)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: weathor on February 20, 2010, 12:40:04 pm
hi from weathor!!! :) :) :D

Will it snow tomorrow (http://theweatherland.com/index.php?&x=134&y=64&pre=1&mod=1&mo=1&hpl=24&contr=0&map=1&eik=/imagegfs/24apcp_gfs_Europe.jpg?6&cas=6)??


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 20, 2010, 06:00:50 pm
Where are you from Weathor?

There's still snow on Glenshane today and ice in the forest. Forecast for next week is VERY interesting for parts of UK and Ireland. There could be a major/severe snow event for some!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 20, 2010, 06:05:29 pm
Cyclonic cold weather continues over the British Isles.  Positive contour heights continue to stretch from Eastern Canada to the Greenland Plateau whilst a deep longwave trough extends from Novaya Zemlya to west of the British Isles.  This is pushing a continued cold feed of air SW just to the NW of the UK whilst Atlantic Mobility is being driven east by a strong Jet stream unusually far south nr 35N - with an effective combining of both the Subtropical and Polar Front Jets to create a highly unsettled Zonal flow from the Azores to Italy.  Postive rising of contour heights is then seen over SE Europe with rather warm conditions persisting over SE Europe and the Middle East.  Little change in the overall pattern is expected in the short term.

Detail:

Snow showers are running into parts of the UK at present, morning snow showers have given a covering in parts of the SW, but are largely fading as they move into dry air over CS England.   WBFL in the far SW are between 200-400m (365M on Camborne 00Z Ascent) but fall off as you move NE .   Snow showers are persistent and heavy around the West and NE of Scotland this morning giving several CMs of Snow. Elsewhere Snow Showers are running down the north sea, perhaps clipping Norfolk, and there are lots of rain/hail showers in the English Channel affecting the Channel Islands.

Elswhere largely fine and sunny. HRV imagery confirming where the snow is lying, coastal fringes of NE & E England, Central and North Scotlan, a good part of Wales and parts still of Central England and the SW.

The evolution over the coming few days is highly complex, as the longwave, various shortwaves embedded in the Longwave and the Atlantic all combine to produce some very unsettled and for some very snowy/wet weather, Atlantic systems being diverted a little further NW than last week as heights build over N Africa, causing the Jet to buckle a little.

WV Imagery over the Atlantic, shows a highly complex duplex of systems, which does not inspire confidence, given the rather data coverage in the area, which is born out by the rather scattergun solutions seen by models of low centres over the coming days.  Whilst there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, detail in the individual low centres is moderate at best and for most of time rather low.

The first of these developments takes place tonight as a shortwave rounds the base of the longwave trough and heads towards the UK, at the same time a W Jet develops over the S of the UK and this enduces pressre falls and increased baroclinicty over the Central and Southern parts of the UK.  There is scope for error on which areas are affected.  The mini low develops over SE Ireland this evening and transfers east on the north (cold) side of the developing Jet over the South, increased forced ascent develops both convective and stratiform elements and an area of rain/sleet and snow develops and moves east.  The GFS and now 06 NAE take the main thrust of the precip 50-100miles further north than the 00Z NAE or the 00Z ECWMF, which were preferring a route through Central areas of Wales into the Midlands.  The 06Z GFS and 06Z NAE both prefer to keep the main snow threat across Mid and N Wales and into N England into the Peak District.  Areas further south are in slightly less cold air and therefore see rain and not snow.  Though it has to be pointed out that the system crosses at night and that WBFL's could be dragged down in any heavier precip cores, so that anywhere north of the M4 corridor is at risk of seeing some snow overnight, though your chances are higher if you live further north.  Both models target Lincs into Yorks and across the Pennines as higher risk areas.  Though with the ECM running it further south and highest accumulations from MidWales across Midlands to Lincs - clearly confidence is not high.  2-5cm the main order of any accumulations

The front moving into the SE stalls later tomorrow through the English Channel and then returns north on Monday in assoc with the complex low moving NE from the Azores, there have been a multitude of solutions for this low.  Its a very complex affair as a subtropical airmass combines with a much colder one - there is considerable uncertainty as to what lows form when. There is now reasonable agreement on the track of Monday's low - roughly following the same path as Thursday's low. (from South DEvon across CS England to the East Anglian Coast), Rain returns to southern england during the morning and turns to snow across SE Wales, the Midlands and Eastern England during the day.  Rather less heavy than previously mean WBFLs up a bit and Sleet/Snow will be mainly above 100-150m, but occasionally penetrating to lower levels.  Hills of SE Wales and the Midlands look most at risk - generally 2-5cm.

BEyond Monday - models now seem keener on the idea of running a 2nd low across the UK (effectively the back low in the complex west of the Azores) , this low deepens and fills a little at least twice in the coming period as various jets and shortwaves engage it.   There is therefore considerable disagreement on its exact location and depth when it arrives over the UK, though there now appears at least moderate confidence of it coming into the SW and moving ENE to emerge from the coast of Eastern England by midweek.  However Ensembles give locations from NW ireland to NE france as positions of this low. Again on its N Flank Sleet and Snow will fall as colder air in place will be dragged into the circulation. Both the 00z GM and 00Z ECMWF were deep - the ECM having a 965mb low over PEmbrokeshire by T+90 with a wide arc of Snow spreading into N England and S Scotland.   The threat of widespread snow in the SE appears to have receded on the 00Z and 06Z Solutions... with N England the targetted area on both the 00 & o6 models.  All models slow the low as it emerges from the East Coast meaning 10-20cm is possible across hilly parts of the north midweek and heavy rain further SE.  (ECM has 60Knt Gusts moving into the English Channel Midweek)

BEyond that there are yet more lows which cross the UK bringing more rain and snow to the UK, and whilst the detail is changing run to run - the overall theme remains consistent and for which there is reasonably high confidence in that the cold cyclonic spell continues for some time yet.

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 20, 2010, 06:06:20 pm
FORECAST FOR Monday 22nd February- Sunday 29th February 2010

ISSUED 20th February 1230Z

POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE PERIOD- Heavy snow across parts of N Wales & the N Midlands and N England (and possibly S Scotland) from Monday right through to Friday 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WEEKLY SUMMARY
A complex low moves north on Monday across southern parts with rain here and snow further north with a further deep low pressure area moving into the SW on Tuesday and running ENE. On its northern flank more sleet and snow is likely with the risk of gales in the far SW. After midweek yet more low pressure areas seem likely to cross the UK bringing more rain with some further snow over hills, keeping us in a highly changeable cyclonic period right through until Friday though a short break may occur early next weekend as a weak ridge develops before more unsettled weather pushes into the SW & west later.

Monday 22nd looks likely to see rather deep low pressure slowly fill as it runs across the south. Wet to start then here with some heavy rain in places at first. A cold start further north with an early frost at first, localised freezing fog and icy patches almost anywhere away from coasts.  Scottish glens will again be especially cold. Anywhere north of the M4 into the central Midland may see either sleet and snow by dawn with moderate accumulations in places, esp over hills along with icy patches and poor visibilities. Mainly cloudy by day across N England and N Wales with some light sleet or snow at times away from coasts. The fog mist and cloud clearing slowly further north to give some sunny periods. Another frost with a few freezing mist or fog patches reforming by evening in much of inland Scotland with icy patches also, when any cloud clears away, generally though staying cloudier for most further south with some light rain or sleet at times, this only very slowly clearing away eastwards, and it will likely persist across the far south, south east and east Anglia. Temperatures near average at 5-6C in most southern areas today, may be up to 8C in the far SW, but only 1-2C in the north and 0C across upland areas of the UK such as the Highlands.

Tuesday 23rd will probably see the low near to southern England along with a slow moving frontal band of rain. Wales & central & Northern England & S Scotland still cloudy with light rain or sleet at times though central & N Scotland will likely see a moderate frost with some freezing fog to start in a weak easterly flow before sunny periods develop. By day the front pepping up a bit as another low in the SW moves NE, giving further rain here as well as across the south of England and S Wales with sleet and some hill snow in places north of the M4 corridor. A slight or moderate frost with some freezing fog patches returning to central and N Scotland later. Further south the sleet -or in places snow -band pushing slowly north still, giving locally heavy snow at times across N England with some accumulations along with icy patches and poor visibilities. Temperatures generally staying below average in central and northern parts along with Wales at 1 to 4C but only -1C in the Highlands but up to 5-6C in the south east and east Anglia and 9C along the SW & southern coasts.

Wednesday 24th looks likely to see the low centred across southern parts slowly moving away into the N Sea leaving most parts of the north in a weak N’ly or NE’ly flow, but a stronger W-NW’ly further south. Some shower bands of wintry pptn may occur throughout the period over N  Scotland along with N Ireland esp close to coasts. A very frosty start for many here too with icy patches about. Mainly though a dull cloudy day with periods of rain across the S Midlands and S Wales dying out only  slowly with some sunny periods developing in the west. Always cloudier in the east & south east with some persistent rain or sleet about, perhaps heaviest in eastern coastal counties, esp for a time later. By evening a slight-moderate frost setting in again after dusk in many inland northern areas, esp the Scottish highlands with some freezing fog patches too but staying cloudier in the south, SE and SW so no frost here. Temperatures feeling quite raw at 1-3C in most northern & central parts though in the south, SE & SW more like 5-7C though only -1C over the Scottish Highlands.

Thursday 25th looks likely to see low pressure to east and a col across the Uk for a time as further low pressure moves towards the SW later. A moderate frost possible at first away from coasts in the north, possibly some freezing mist or fog patches about but cloudy with rain sleet or snow generally at times in the east until the early afternoon with a few showery outbreaks, in north western areas too. By day through most northern, central & western parts quite dry with sunny periods. Another moderate or severe frost setting in, with some localised freezing mist & fog patches, for many northern areas inland after dusk. More rain working into the SW by late afternoon as fronts move NE, heavy in places, with further wintry showers about in the far north. As the rain reaches areas north of the M4 corridor by evening it may well turn to sleet & snow from Wales east towards Berkshire, giving moderate falls in places, esp over hills, in a rather strong E-SE’ly wind. Max temperatures about 1-4C generally but up to 5C in the south and 8C in the far SW but only -2C across the higher ground of Scotland

Friday 26th seems likely to see the area of low pressure move across the southern UK or Midlands but the detail is very unclear . An early frost and freezing mist patches inland in the north especially severe over some Highland glens. A lot of cloud about in central areas with some sleet and l snow giving accumulations in places. Generally drier and bright in Scotland and N Ireland by day but the south and SE of England a bit drier but cloudy and milder. Another frost by evening in the far north but mainly too cloudy for this elsewhere as the outbreaks of rain sleet & snow  continue in central parts especially with a risk of continuing accumulations in places.  Temperatures generally 5-7C by day in the south though up to 9C around the SW coastal counties but more like 1-4C in central and northern parts and -1C over the Highlands.

Saturday 27th and Sunday 28th seem likely to initially see low pressure move away east taking its rain, sleet and snow away too and there’s a suggestion a weak ridge of high pressure may affect many areas on Saturday. So quite cold by night as cloud clears with slight-moderate frosts & freezing mist & fog patches inland in places away from coasts, mins generally as low as -4C to -2C but the Highlands and prone areas esp valleys inland across Northern England may see as low as -8C. Generally bright by day after early low cloud and freezing fog clears away but the risk of some wintry showers at times on Saturday in the far north and the far SW though these more likely to be of rain & hail here. Sunday may see the weak ridge push away east across to the eastern UK after an early frost and freezing fog patches quite widely inland before more rain pushes into the SW & west later possibly turning to sleet or snow in places as it pushes NE later on but leaves many parts in the east with a reasonably dry, fairly sunny day.  Temperatures over the weekend by day will likely be rather cold for most northern areas at 2C to 4C, possibly only -1C in the Highlands but more like 4-7C in the south, SW, S & W Wales & N Ireland. 

FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK

*Some fog or freezing fog patches, mist and low cloud inland through the week & weekend esp in northern & western parts
*Some moderate-severe frosts overnight more esp in northern parts with icy patches at times if there’s any standing water
*Wintry outbreaks with some snow about from the M4 north more esp over hills and more generally in central and N Wales, N Midlands & N England, with some moderate accumulations in places likely along with drifting at times in strong winds

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is strong for the patterning but moderate becoming moderate-poor for detail by Thursday onwards

Dave Wiseman
UKww Executive/C & M Manager/Warnings team


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on February 20, 2010, 11:25:52 pm
Thanks for the overviews Martin - I enjoy reading them!

Well there's been more snow here at home than there has in Iceland this winter (just cold and dry there) - will be interesting to see what pans out for the week ahead!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 21, 2010, 04:33:24 pm
10Z Update -21Feb

Developments overnight planned out much as expected, though with slightly more Snow over N Ireland and far SW Scotland than expected, though accumulations are quite small in general.  Overnight a 110Knt Jet has developed over Southern Britain, this has created increased surface and upper baroclinicity across the UK.  At the jets left exit diffluence zone a small surface depression has developed.  This currently over N Wales and will move ENE and slowly fll as the Jet moves away.  The increased ascent has occured at night with a cold airmass firmly in place over the Northern half of the UK, hence we have seen heavy Snow developing.  2-5cm generally, but reports of 6-9cm in a few places.  At 09Z both the 12KM NAE and 16KM ECWMF have a good grasp of the precip zone which stretches from E N Ireland to Morcambe Bay acrtoss through Leeds to Hull and down to tCambridge and Suffolk.  Its largely rain south of 52N. Heavy Rain has moved across the more southern Counties overnight.

The Snow will continue to push E and NE through today, tending to become lighter and turning to rain over lower levels with time, though several CMS to come across N England. Rain hanging on close to the SE and infact ECM is not keen to clear from far SE at all today, hinting at a return of some precip to Hants, Sussex and Kent later today. NAE is similar and hints at outbreaks of showery rain returning from Portland Eastwards this afternoon.

Tonight most places become dry and clear with another cold night across Scotland and N England under Clear Skies and Snowcover (ECM has temps below -12C again across Scotland and below -8C across N England)

However cloud persists further south as another depression approaches. This one again has the potential to bring more snow to Wales, Midlands and Eastern England.  The 00Z GM, NAE, GFS all bring the low through the English Channel nr the English Side, However the 16KM ECMWF brings it ENE closer to the FRench side effectively shunting the precip further SE away from the Midlands and confining it to SE England with Snow threat reduced and confined to the Chilterns largely.   The Hirlam is similar to the ECMWF (though this not surprising as it gets its boundary data from that model)

I do not like going against the ECMWF, but given the available evidence from just about every other model has the precip further NE and as the NAE has done a superb job with the Snow overnight, its hard not to do anything else, but with lower confidence than normal for a 36hr forecast.

So rain comes back into the south later tonight and spreads ENE tomorrow, and turns to snow from SE Wales, across the Midlands into E England.  NAE quite bullish about a period of Mod Snow developing giving generally 2-5cm on low ground and 4-10cm on ground above 150m. Heavy rain in the south for a time.  It should be noted the huge discrepancies between Models (GFS has precip reaching Manchester and ECM barely has it north of London, though the NCEP experimental FIM has it more like the NAE)

Another low comes towards the SW on Tuesday (this one the 2nd low currently north of the Azores).  All models return north the frontal band on Tues. However because the ECM has not dragged as much milder air north (for reasons above on Monday) it is quicker to turn it to snow on Tues.  The GFS which has the greatest incurson of milder air is slower to turn to snow *(an example of where early errors in a forecast can lead to further problems down the line) The ECM turn the rain to snow more bullishly on Tues across Inland Southern England, S Wales, Midlands to produce a snowy afternoon indeed across Central areas. Another 3-6cm possible as it pushes north. 

The Snow pushes on North into N England and N Ireland with less cold air moving norht for a time and lots of heavy rain/showers across the south as a deep low moves through the Channel Hail and Thunder possible into Weds across the South.

Beyond that, another strenthening Jet Core comes across the Atlantic and develops another low close to the AZores in the highly embryonic area of the north Atlantic, this low turns NE and heads towards the South of England.  There is perhaps not surprisingly another mirrad of solutions for this low, from winding up to the West of the UK to running across N FRance. 

The UKMO GM, ECMWF and NCEP experimental FIM run the low through the Channel (Operational GFS has it further NW), which engages cold air again and sucks it into the Depression.  More rain moving into the South and turning to Snow across Wales, Midlands and East Anglia (and Southern England if ECM is correct)

However given we have problems with the detail 24hrs ahead - we can have very little confidence in the forecast for 120Hrs, except to say it looks like staying very unsettled and cyclonic with a good deal of Snow for many - esp northern parts.

EDit - 06Z GFS is more like 00Z NAE and increases the Snow signal over the Midlands tomorrow. However NAE has moved SE too and is moving closer to ECM ( only has 5mm North of Oxford vs 19mm in 00Z)  Clearly there is scope for sig errors in the forecast, but the trend is clearly SE, but it may be the SOuth Midlands & Northern parts of Southern England are at risk of Snow.

P Blight 09:53


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 21, 2010, 04:34:07 pm
SE parts of N. Ireland had 4" of snow this morning, that caught the forecasters off guard.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: jjb on February 21, 2010, 08:55:27 pm
Wednesday looks interesting Martin.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 22, 2010, 08:21:39 pm
19Z Update - 22 Feb 2010

General Situation

Synoptically nothing is changing fast. Aloft, a large high is located over Greenland and the Davis Straights into Eastern Canada. A deep trough is extending SW from the Barents Sea to West of the UK and a very strong combined Polar Front and Subtropical Jet covers the Atlantic and European Sectors (140Knts West of Maderia at 12z)

Over the coming days, little changes to the NW of the UK, but 300  &500mb heights rise over N Africa and the Med over the coming days forcing the Jet to veer towards the UK, this means it becomes less cold across the South of the UK, but with low level cold ever never too far away we can expect further snow - esp mid week over Northern parts of the UK.

The 500mbn pattern becomes less zonal with time over the Atlantic sector as more meridionality is returned.

Possible Severe Weather

Heavy Snow for Northern Parts on Weds / Thurs and Heavy Rain for the South

Discussion

Today's snow was quite extensive this morning - but weakened this afternoon. Still some heavy rain cl.ose to the Sussex and Kent coasts thisd evening, but largely clear and cold tonight across the north , this colder air advecting south again overnight and getting as far as about the M4. Another very cold night across Scotland. Still Snow showers around the North and NE of Scotland.

Main next event is the next frontal system coming into the South and moving north.  The frontal timing has continued to slow on succussive, GFS, NAE and ECM runs, but confidence is reasonably high for a fairly snowy spell of weather on Weds/Thurs across first Northern England and then Scotland. 

Tomorrow rain comes back into the South with WBFL, largely above 600m, however this falls into increasingly cold air which will be in place across Wales, Midlands and N England, it turns to snow over the Welsh Hills above 150m-200m and then expands NE as the thermal divide across the front increases.  Precip intensitiies pick up and both the GFS and NAE and inferred precip amounts in the ECM generate a fairly extensive spell of Snow later tomorrow into the evening across the Midlands, Wales and N England, most accumulations above 200m, and turning to rain from the south with time.   2-5cm in places, and up to 10cm over 200m or so esp N Wales, Peaks and PEnnines.

Much less cold - WBFL above 1000m move into the South on Weds, but it still stays very unsettled as the deep convective low (nr 20W) moves east along the SOuth Coast.  Models in agreement for some very heavy rain, hail and Thunder to move east giving local flooding in places.  At the same The snow pushes North into N Ireland, S Scotland giving several cms in places and the front actually slows down and the warmer air occludes out to the east, hence we keep cold air in the north maintaining the risk of Sleet and Snow right into Thursday. (though by then largely Scotland only)

Another deep depression with origins well south of 40N comes NE on Thursday and moves close to the South Coast again Around 975mbs overnight into Friday , another very heavy band of Rain comes NE (another 20mm possible) and this band then pushes N to rejuvenate the oclcusion by then almost stationary across Scotland giving more snow.  On Friday , the cold air spills back South again and the rain turns to Snow again across parts of N England and N Ireland

Windy at times in the South, though the strongest winds occuring over the Channel Islands and N France .

Beyond the end of the week, there has been discrepancies in the handling of an extremely low latitude low which moves ENE, then NE towards Western Europe.  Various models have deepened/ Not deepened this low depending on its speed NW at the same time as an active shortwave runs SE towards Iberia.  This low develops NE of Puerto Rico in the relatively deep tropics and moves ENE towards Maderia and the Canary Islands before turning NE, and deepening as it engages both an active shortwave and two Jets.  The low on the 12Z Models interacts with the LEft exit of a propogating NW;'ly Jet diving south of the Azores and the right entrance of a SW'ly Jet over the SW Approaches and English Channel.  This combination allows for massive amounts of upper level diflfuence and allows large scale ascent to take place forcing the low to deepen potentially explosively.  It will also have PVA and a large thermal divide(  Deep layer PM air diving SE and warm Subtropical air riding NE) (Theta W across the low goes from sub 6C to > 12C creating a huge amount of precipitation. 

12Z Models are in actual good agreement over the low, with it coming NE west of Iberia.  GFS has it furthest NW (earlier deepening) and pushes it across the SE of England, whereas the ECM and UKMO GM keep it over NE France (both have a deep low coming NE across NC France at T+144, ECM then moves it into Holland slowly filling) IN the GFS solution the low is closer to the cold air over Scotland and sucks it SE into the Low and the precip turns to Snow, however the more eastern movement in the ECM and the faster movement, means this struggles to occur.  Anyway - lots will change before thisd occurs - however the development needs watching

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 23, 2010, 04:22:38 pm
UKww Weather watch for Heavy snow in the North / Heavy rain in the South

Issued Tuesday 23/02/2010 0830GMT

Areas affected by Watch -  Wales, N England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, S England

Valid from: 1200GMT Tuesday 23rd February - 1800GMT Thursday
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
General evolution: 
At 00Z Tues a 966hPa low lies approx 800 miles west south west of Ireland with associated warm and occluded fronts extending eastwards across to the south coast of England. These fronts are forecast to move northwards to lie across central parts of the UK during the forecast period bringing some milder air and potentially heavy rain into southern regions whilst introducing a risk of some moderate / heavy snow to the north as it hits the cold air in place there.

Forecast:
An area of rain currently sitting in a line stretching from southern parts of Ireland down through Cornwall is making progress north eastwards and is forecast this afternoon to turn to snow across inland parts of Wales - though more likely to be of sleet / rain around the coasts. Snow here may become moderate as the day goes on with accumulations of 2-5cm on low ground, but with up to 5-10cm across the higher ground. Meanwhile, further to the south the precip is likely to all be of rain - some of which could be heavy.

As we enter the evening hours, we expect the area of precip over Wales to continue to push north eastwards with a period of snow developing quite widely over N.England and N.Ireland. The snow becoming moderate to heavy in places and likely to fall for much of the night with 2-5cm quite widely on low ground, but with 5-10cm across higher ground and potentially 15cm across the Pennines.

By tomorrow lunchtime, the occluded front will be likely to be sitting in a line from N Ireland across to the far north of England with milder air to the south. The snow will continue to push further north to lie over central parts of Scotland with some further moderate snowfall here. 2-5cm at low levels in Southern Scotland, but with up to 10-20cm across the higher ground there. Some snow continuing in N England whilst in N Ireland the snow may start to turn more to rain / sleet in the south and east of the provence.

Relatively milder air in place across southern parts of the UK has the potential to produce some heavy rainfall with possibly up to 20-30mm of rain falling across southern counties with the risk of some heavy rain especially in showers which may be of hail too. Further heavier rain may develop again by Thursday. Driving conditions may be difficult, listen to local radio for updates.

UKww will monitor this Warning and update it if necessary.

Issued by GL/DJW for UKww, 0830z 23/02/2010

Dave Wiseman
UKww Executive/C & M Manager/Warnings team


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on February 23, 2010, 05:34:45 pm
The band of preciptation from this has just passed through here, mostly snow, some sleet - however none settled and melted as soon as they hit surfaces.   I'm close to our local snowline - for weeks now its sat at around 200m asl - the snow on the hills and heathland has been around unmelted for quite some time now.  I'm at roughly 170m asl, so unfortunately for me it's been close but no banana... :-\


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 23, 2010, 07:32:06 pm
Light snow falling over Maghera now, should get interesting later


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on February 23, 2010, 09:47:10 pm
Has been snowing lightly here since 8:00pm but its more or less blowing around in the wind and there is very little accumulations so far.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 23, 2010, 09:57:17 pm
Same thing here Paul, snowing since 19.15 with just a few white patches of dust in places, nothing seems to be staying, it feels way too mild. The Met Office and BBC will get egg on their face if nothing lays from this. Things could change later tonight though....


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on February 23, 2010, 10:06:19 pm
I hope so but its a very weak looking band of precipitation from the radar, it may intensify as the low moves closer.  (notice I say precipitation)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: jjb on February 23, 2010, 10:44:24 pm
Light snow here will see what the morning brings.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 23, 2010, 11:12:20 pm
Very disappointing here, snowing lightly but still not laying on the ground, unless things intensify later this could be a non event. GFS charts showing rain later instead of snow now!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: scott86 on February 24, 2010, 01:03:42 am
U wouldnt know what its going to do,  snowing quite heavily in lisburn at the minute, it isnt lying but the roads and pavements are turning quite slushy. :-\


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: scott86 on February 24, 2010, 01:58:40 am
Holy s**t, from i wrote that last message about a cm has settled on the road outside my house, blizzard conditions as we speak!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 24, 2010, 02:58:25 am
Excellent Scott!, snowing heavily here now but not laying much, mini blizzard on Glenshane earlier.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 24, 2010, 03:10:49 am
Conor reporting a good 3" on Glenshane Pass, difficult to see road markings.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on February 24, 2010, 03:44:16 am
I'm well on my way to that "10 cm" forecast by the bbc, only another 9.9 cm to go................. :(


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on February 24, 2010, 07:28:21 am
Sounds like you chaps had more snow than me - i've woken to another grey, damp, snowless day...


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on February 24, 2010, 08:14:49 am
Just plain nasty here - not at all interesting - very wet sleet, 80-90% melted before landing, ground is just wet. Raw SE breeze force 4-5. Temp 1.0C at present, overnight minimum 0.7C, first night for a week without frost.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 24, 2010, 01:55:55 pm
That was the worst Winter forecast I've seen, nothing was on the ground here at all, and I was awake until 05.00. Then it turned to rain. Will never turst BBC NI and Met Office again after all that talk on tv about it.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 24, 2010, 04:56:37 pm
Conor and I went up to the Glenshane this afternoon and got some OK snow scenes over the mountains. Cold too, hands were shivering in less than a min.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: scott86 on February 24, 2010, 05:37:07 pm
I agree with you Martin, it started to lie here at about 3.30 - 4 am but when i got up this morning at 9 there wasnt a pic of snow on the ground and it was back to rain! :(


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: scott86 on February 25, 2010, 07:21:47 am
Some serious snow in lisburn! hasnt stopped since 6am and getting heavier!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 25, 2010, 03:54:12 pm
That's a quite a shock Scott!!, I knew there could be a few snow showers there but nothing like that. Just goes to show unpredictable it is. Could be more on Fri/Sat.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 25, 2010, 03:58:35 pm
Looks like I read this too late....

UKww Flash Weather Warning for Heavy snow in N Ireland, Highland, northern & eastern Scotland

UKww Watch for snow -S Scotland and heavy rain- S England

Issued Wednesday 25/02/2010 0700GMT

Areas affected by Warning - N Ireland, Central Highland, northern & eastern Scotland

Areas affected by Watch -  S Scotland, S England

Valid from: 0700GMT Thursday 23rd February - 2359GMT Thursday General evolution: 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At 07z Warm and occluded fronts lie over Northern Scotland. A low pressure centre lies off the south east coast of England, whilst another low pressure centre lies close to N.Ireland.

Forecast:

WARNING An area of heavy snow is currently pushing through N.Ireland and will give widepread accumulation of 2-5cms at all levels (inc. Belfast), but with up to 10cms in places. Meanwhile, an area of moderate / heavy snow with sleet and rain around the coasts currently sitting of central and northern parts of Scotland  is likely to give accumulation inland of 2-5cms at low levels, but up to 10-20cms at higher levels - with possibly 25-40cms over the highest ground with drifting snow likely. The precipitation most likely to fall north of the central belt, across the Highlands, eastern and NW Scotland. Transport problems are likely, listen to local radio for updates.

UKww WATCH Some snow (4-6cm) may fall over higher ground in southern Scotland as well in the period.

UKww WATCH Relatively milder air in place across central and southern parts of the UK has the potential to produce some heavy rainfall with possibly up to 20-30mm of rain falling across southern counties with the risk of some heavy rain especially in showers which may be of hail too. Further heavier rain may develop again on Thursday / Friday. Driving conditions may be difficult, listen to local radio for updates.

UKww will monitor this Warning & watch and update it if necessary.

Issued by GL for UKww, 0700z 25/02/2010



Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 25, 2010, 11:37:45 pm
UKww Weather Warning for Heavy Snow

Issued Thursday 25/02/2010 2330GMT

Areas affected by Warning - Northern Ireland, northern England & Scotland
 
Valid from: 0000GMT Friday 26th February - 1200GMT Saturday 27th February

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

General evolution:

At 18Z an occluded front lies across central Scotland. This front will slowly move south bringing heavy snow and colder air southwards.

Forecast:
Heavy snow in Scotland will continue overnight gradually moving south during the afternoon. Amounts up to 10-15cm are to be expected with more over higher ground adding to snow already lying. The heaviest snow is expected to occur in the Highlands.

In to the early afternoon the band of precipitation moves into Northern Ireland with colder air spreading down from the north. Precipitation may initially start as rain before turning to snow. Up to 10cm of snow may be expected over this region.

Later into Friday and Saturday the main risk areas are southern Scotland and northern England. As much as 20cm is forecast to fall in these areas. Some additonal snow is also expected over northern Ireland on Saturday.

UKww will monitor this Warning and update it if necessary.

Issued by PJK for UKww, 2330z 25/02/2010

The UKww Warnings Team use Net Weather Extra when compiling forecasts.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on February 25, 2010, 11:55:47 pm
After the 'epic' disappointment of tue night im just gonna wait til its actually snowing before I build up my hopes on this one. Saying that I wouldn't mind one last artic blast to end winter and then I hope spring comes in early March-am i asking for too much??  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 26, 2010, 03:42:48 am
I'm with you Paul, won't believe it until I see it. One last decent snow event would be a nice way to end the Winter then get straight into Spring. No sign of it though on the models yet.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: brianb on February 26, 2010, 08:46:13 am
Spanish Plain weather (again) .... :(


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 26, 2010, 04:55:12 pm
It's a very nasty day here, been raining/sleeting for hours and the roads are getting bad with lots of surface spray and reduced visibility. Still waiting on the snow to arrive after dark.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 26, 2010, 04:56:00 pm
Weather warning issued by UKMO for the North of the country.

Flash warnings of severe or extreme weather
These are issued when the Met Office has 80% or greater confidence that severe weather is expected in the next few hours.

Warning type: Heavy Snow

Valid from 1200 Fri 26 to 2359 Fri 26

Local areas affected: Northern Ireland
 
  Co Antrim
  Co Derry
  Co Down
  Co Tyrone
 
Outbreaks of rain and sleet will turn increasingly to snow, mainly above 150m, through this afternoon and evening and become persistent and heavy at times. Accumulations of 5 to 10cm are expected, with 20cm possible over higher ground.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to TrafficWatchNI.com (operational hours 07.00 to 21.00 Mon to Fri and 09:00 to17:00 on Saturdays) for further advice on road conditions.



Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on February 26, 2010, 05:22:27 pm
It's actually just gone really clear for me just before sunset, managed to get a quick Ha visual on the sun which was nice.  I'm hoping for some sun early tomorrow.  Made me laugh at work today - the big topic was whether sundays low would bring snow or not.  For me in the west mids I think not, but could well be different for others...


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 26, 2010, 07:31:06 pm
Complete non-event yet again here, some snow flakes falling within the rain but that's it. Too wet and mild at ground level for anything here, plus the front will move away soon. I'm astonished that the Met O had a severe weather warning out for this, the icing on the cake was the local TV forecast saying that a few cm's were possible on the mountain tops (that was at 19.00)...rediculous forecasting. That's two bad strikes from the Met O this week. Roll on Spring storms...

Mark, yip that looks like a nasty storm heading for Europe, someone said it could be life threatening. Heavy rain and gales could be on the cards for S. Britain, possibly sleet/snow furthern N at the cold boundary. That is definitely one to watch.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 26, 2010, 08:24:46 pm
My Mum is reporting bad blizzards in Magherafelt, the car has 3" of snow on the roof and that's the result from rain melting it on the way to Maghera!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on February 27, 2010, 10:05:10 am
Roll on Spring storms...

Mark, yip that looks like a nasty storm heading for Europe, someone said it could be life threatening. Heavy rain and gales could be on the cards for S. Britain, possibly sleet/snow furthern N at the cold boundary. That is definitely one to watch.

Yes, with only a couple of weeks to go till the equinox i'm looking forward to spring now!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 27, 2010, 01:31:30 pm
oh oh, has anyone seen the latest GFS?, looks like no sign of Spring at all, yet another cold spell with high pressure takes hold for March with cold weather from an Ely or NEly flow and many more snow events next week and weekend widly across UK and Ireland. There's no end to this Winter!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on February 27, 2010, 04:43:29 pm
oh oh, has anyone seen the latest GFS?, looks like no sign of Spring at all, yet another cold spell with high pressure takes hold for March with cold weather from an Ely or NEly flow and many more snow events next week and weekend widly across UK and Ireland. There's no end to this Winter!

Tee hee hee, this is going to be a season to remember!


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on February 27, 2010, 07:37:24 pm
lol  ;D

There where thunderstorms in W. Ireland and S/central Britain today too  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on February 28, 2010, 10:29:47 am
Well it's just gone 10am here and this weather has pretty much missed us here in the west mids.  I went to bed about 3am and it was overcast with the occassional gust of wind, got up 9ish and there was some big flakes of snow coming down - these stopped within seconds (I think the clouds knew I was watching  :P ), now it's overcast with an occasional gust of wind.  Looking at the rainfall radar would seem all the weather and rain has gone well to the south east of me, up the English Channel.  I'm vaguely hopeful it may actually clear up as the day goes on - maybe some solar observing later this aft, hopefully a bit of astro later tonight?  Fingers crossed anyway!  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on March 01, 2010, 04:23:11 pm
Looks like a big downgrade this week, not much snow potential at all now, what a difference a few days can make.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on March 06, 2010, 10:07:32 am
Well, another week passes and into march.  Another cold weekend as high pressure sits upon us with night time lows below zero again, daytime highs single figures but still feeling chilly.

I wonder when this wintry grip will finally break?  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on March 08, 2010, 07:46:30 pm
I wonder when this wintry grip will finally break?  ::)
Well, here in Poltava it seems like never.  ;D
Although it is the second day of March (ie spring as most people think), but we still have 21cm of snow on the ground and temperatures within -5...+2C.  :P
Not so horrible as you can imagine from my words though... a week ago there were first signs of spring already: it was sometimes sunny, the temperatures were reaching +3...+7C in the daytime (although a few degress below zero at night), the snow was melting, and there was plenty of water & ice everywhere. But last weekend turned everything backwards to winter. A few snowfalls passed by, temperature is again mostly below zero. Feeling a bit frustrating to observe overcast & wintry weather instead of something better.
March is going to be a fourth month of winter (as in 2006) because 2-week forecast now tells about some clear weather this week with -5...-10C at night and then again plenty of precipitation (snow / wet snow / rain). More to tell... meteorologists warn about serious flooding in April, just after the snow completely melts.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on March 12, 2010, 04:40:32 pm
Thunderstorms in England today, looks like the storm season is starting already  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: markt on March 13, 2010, 09:24:21 am
Was just drizzle for me  :(

Well, woke up this morning to another ground frost, however daytime temperatures are quite widely forecast to be double figures with the outlook for a warming.  Could this be back of what has been a memorably chilly winter?  I'm ready for some warmer weather now atleast...  ::)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on March 14, 2010, 04:31:40 pm
Fun weather today in Poltava... There was an intense snowfall in the morning (additional 1...2cm of snow). Further since afternoon the sky became completely clear. The temperature is close to zero or a bit warmer, wind is sometimes gusty. It seemed like a nice weather as for early spring, but we had cancelled our stargazing today  :( another cyclone is on its way, I already see plenty of Cirrus in SW, and there will possibly be a snowfall tonight.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: martinastro on March 15, 2010, 03:40:16 pm
Weather is set to turn wet and windy from Thurs onwards, after that an unstable SWly flow feeds in with a chance of a thundery breakdown around the 22nd. GFS is showing good CAPE and LI for the time of year!, looks like Ireland and parts of S/W britain could see some proper convection next week. Bring it on.  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: paulster78 on March 15, 2010, 08:35:49 pm
Fingers crossed for the first storms of the season- hope the forecast holds up, would love to get some storm shots  :)


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on March 31, 2010, 08:45:41 pm
Wow, I have just read that NI have much of fresh snow, so Ukraine is nothing comparative to it. But we still have it unusual. The most of snow covering has melt near March 24-25, but in shaded places there is still some snow/ice on the ground, and some of the snow dumps around the city are over 1 meter high! (melting very slowly).
It is even more impressive to have summer-like temperatures (+19C today afternoon) and at the same time to see some snow on the ground. I haven't seen such weather conditions in >10 years!  :o Spring keeps steadily here for second week already, and (yes!) it is mostly dry & sunny. Nevertheless, some of those snow masses aren't going to melt even in 1-2 weeks ahead.


Title: Re: Winter 2009 / 2010 in Western Europe?
Post by: Roman White on April 05, 2010, 09:33:08 pm
Finally I may say bye-bye to winter and forget about its attributes. Today I saw last remnants of ice in the streets, I hope I will not see them tomorrow. It was definitely weird to have daytime temperature close +20C with even some weak convection while there was snow on the ground. One of the most unusual winters for me (however, it might be nothing extraordinary perhaps)