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General Category => Weather & Atmospherics => Topic started by: martinastro on June 09, 2009, 05:55:12 pm



Title: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 09, 2009, 05:55:12 pm
Hope I got that date correct. There is some chat at the moment about the chance of a Spanish Plume event occurring over Ireland on Sun/Mon June 14/15th time period. That's a very unstable warm and humid airmass moving up from the south and crossing over much of Ireland to the north. If this is indeed the case then there is the chance of getting some very strong elevated thunderstorms over a wide area. It's obviously still too far out yet and lots of things could happen between now and then with the risk of the plume being pushed to the east depending on the low pressure/high pressure war at the moment.

Just for a laugh I checked the netweather charts for Maghera on Mon June 15th and got a shock. At 16.00 the CAPE values are 1041 with the LI at -4. That is incredible!. Energy like that can generate severe thunderstorms and Supercells. I so wish that would happen but it will probably get downgraded before then. In any case, out of interest, I thought I would start a thread in advance just incase it actually does come true. Monday is worth watching!. As you can see from the charts the LI is even at -5 for S and SE parts of N. Ireland, but take it all with a pinch of salt at this stage. I haven't seen CAPE and LI values like that for here in years.

(http://i44.tinypic.com/4pw48y.png)

(http://i44.tinypic.com/2b1enq.png)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland - Mon June 16th
Post by: Paul on June 09, 2009, 06:05:32 pm
I shall be flying Gatwick -> Aldergrove right about that sort of time!


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland - Mon June 15th
Post by: martinastro on June 10, 2009, 12:25:08 pm
Latest model updates are showing Sat, Sun, and Mon as potential convective days with decent CAPE and LI with Monday being the best. Hopefully something interesting will happen....


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland - Mon June 15th
Post by: martinastro on June 10, 2009, 03:07:41 pm
Today, plenty of thunderstorms over Britain including Republic of Ireland and sferics SE of Lough Neagh towards the E coast of NI.

BBC Newsline with Angie just confirmed the chance of thundery activity over the weekend. I also seen Paul Evans image of the sunrise with pillar on TV today, so congrats to Paul.  :)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland - Mon June 15th
Post by: martinastro on June 10, 2009, 03:13:22 pm
TORRO has a forecast out for mainland UK today...

http://www.torro.org.uk/torro/forecast/index.php

Funnel cloud spotted over Anglesey this morning.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 10, 2009, 03:50:25 pm
Thunderstorms SE N. Ireland.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 10, 2009, 05:27:04 pm
Today's lightning activity so far...Britain is getting hammered by organized multicell storms, there's a high chance of a tornado there today.

(http://i40.tinypic.com/ezphyw.gif)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 10, 2009, 05:30:03 pm
From UKASF....

Wed Jun 10, 2009 5:06 pm

UKASF Alert

Intense, marginally severe storms, across the Midlands, Wales and West Country in particular pose a risk of hail, gusty winds and convergence-type funnel clouds and/or a tornado. Prolonged torrential downpours are also likely, which may lead to flash flooding this evening.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 10, 2009, 06:04:08 pm
Here's images of a rotating thunderstorm and funnel captured from the UK today.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=30691&posts=3#M447826


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 10, 2009, 06:29:48 pm
Monday has been completely downgraded, however Sat and Sun are still on for heavy convective showers and thunderstorms, some of which may even last into night time hours for some parts. Here's the latest charts for the late afternoon Sat and Sun...

(http://i40.tinypic.com/mcu7fm.png)

(http://i43.tinypic.com/29w32vs.png)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 10, 2009, 11:05:32 pm
Another funnel caught in the UK today again...

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=30698&posts=1

That's alot of funnels and one tornado from the UK lately!. One was caught from Dublin also and John T from TORRO is currently on the case incase of a touch down. I heard he's getting video footage from CCTV cameras within the various shops and businesses in the area. A true detective he is!


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: brianb on June 11, 2009, 05:24:58 pm
Quote
There is some chat at the moment about the chance of a Spanish Plume event occurring over Ireland on Sun/Mon June 14/15th time period.
Nasty, sounds like a cross between a very bad dose of flu & the Inquistion which no-one expects!


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 11, 2009, 06:16:36 pm
lol...yes, that's a good one, a bit like swine flue, it does sound nasty.

It's still low risk really at the min but Mon is back on the cards again along with Sat and Sun. Worst case is rain and cloud (boring!), best case, elevated thunderstorms!. The Atlantic is introducing cooler air which MIGHT kill the instablity but there is that mass of moist air moving up from the S or SW which is worth watching. Should feel warmer and more humid over the weekend in any case.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 11, 2009, 06:55:10 pm
(http://i42.tinypic.com/15evack.png)

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-06-11 18:23:00
Valid: 2009-06-12 00:00:00 - 2009-06-12 23:59:00

Regions Affected
NW & W Ireland ( western parts of Northern Ireland and central & western Ireland are included in the WATCH )

Synopsis
Existing showers and storms across eastern Scotland and eastern England will drift into the North Sea overnight, where there is a low risk of thunder and lightning (hence the WATCH). As the occlusion moves through Ireland and Northern Ireland northeastwards during the morning and early afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the North Atlantic. Whilst there is a risk of a few well-scattered and mostly light showers developing across western Ireland during the afternoon, the main focus will be during the evening hours with an increase risk of thundery showers affecting some western coasts of Ireland, the risk continuing into the night and extending further north.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 12, 2009, 07:01:25 pm
Active thunderstorms breaking out in W Ireland now. Sat, Sun, and Mon are looking good for action. Waiting to see what the experts say...


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: scott86 on June 12, 2009, 07:26:38 pm
at long last, im off work when the forecast is looking promising! :)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 12, 2009, 07:33:54 pm
Great to hear it Scott  :)

Here's the latest CAPE and LI charts for Sat at 18.00 (1st chart). Note even at midnight there is still instability around, the odd night storm is possible somewhere (2nd chart).

(http://i43.tinypic.com/2dtpqqh.png)

(http://i44.tinypic.com/23u90md.png)

Tornado/spout param also over NI for Sat....

http://lightningwizard.estofex.org/Europe/gfs_spout_eur24.png


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 12, 2009, 07:41:10 pm
Convective outlook for Sat from Tony Gilbert...

(http://i40.tinypic.com/k1c1fq.jpg)

7.20pm Fri

Moderate Risk of General Thundery Showers Ireland 12Z-21Z Sat 13th 09

Models are picking up on the development of strong CAPE over Ireland for Saturday. A succession of surface troughs look to push through from the SW initiating some rather heavy showers to most parts. Sat morning shows some increase in surface temps as cloud cover shifts NE. Scattered Thunderstorms are expected to break out pretty much across the board within a poorly sheared environment. In addition to this weak upper moisture seems rather sluggish to move off. The net result will likely decrease the speed that cooling of cloud tops can occur.




Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 12, 2009, 08:46:08 pm
(http://i44.tinypic.com/2mw6zde.png)

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-06-12 20:16:00
Valid: 2009-06-13 00:00:00 - 2009-06-13 23:59:00

Regions Affected
Northern Ireland, Ireland, southern half of Scotland and the far north of England ( the remainder of Scotland, Wales, northern England and Southwest England are included in the WATCH )

Synopsis
As an occlusion moves north and east across the UK during Saturday, a moist but unstable airmass is left in its wake. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop very quickly during the morning hours across Northern Ireland and Ireland, becoming fairly widespread as the day progresses. Showers and thunderstorms may also move into southwest Scotland during the afternoon, with further showers and possibly thunderstorms developing across other areas in the southern half of Scotland in particular, especially late afternoon and evening. Winds will be light and so the showers will be slow moving, which may cause high rainfall totals due to flash flooding. Hail and gusty winds may accompany several of the showers. Isolated showers may develop across parts northern England, Wales and Southwest England, most likely due to local convergence zones, and there is a slight risk of thundery activity from these, most likely across northern England. Showers may persist for much of the evening across parts of southern Scotland, Ireland and Northern Ireland, and in some places thundery showers may continue overnight. Nevertheless, there are quite a few factors that need monitoring during Saturday.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 12, 2009, 09:34:24 pm
Entire sky is covered with mammatus here.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 12, 2009, 10:22:28 pm
Torrential showers (red on radar) have just moved into N. Ireland heading NE. These is a chance these may become storms in some areas.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: markt on June 13, 2009, 01:21:25 am
Torrential showers (red on radar) have just moved into N. Ireland heading NE. These is a chance these may become storms in some areas.

Looks like it was a sharp burst you had looking at the rainfall radar.  Did you manage to get any pickies of those mammatus Martin?

I'm expecting rain tomorrow - i'm off camping with friends in the Forest of Dean, barbeque planned and everything - I bet a char grilled burger the weather gods will look down on me unfavourably!  :P


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: scott86 on June 13, 2009, 11:28:32 am
some nice convection firing up over the lisburn area!


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 13, 2009, 11:48:15 am
Met Office have flash warning out for all of NI for heavy showers with hail and thunder...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

Thanks for the report Scott, I think this is going to be one of those classic thunderstorm days like we used to get. The Sun has been out all morning and it's hot and humid with solid updraughts forming everywhere since after 11.00...I'm getting excited  :)

Hi Mark, I didn't get any images of the mammatus because they were not the spectacular type, I was saving my batteries for today. Good luck on your camping trip...it could go either way weather wise in your area, you know how unpredictable the weather is in the UK  :)

Storms over Atlantic at min and showers breaking out in SE NI. Get your cameras ready everyone  :)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: scott86 on June 13, 2009, 11:52:40 am
863 j/kg cape and -3 LI----------Very promising indeed!


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 13, 2009, 12:19:04 pm
Best all year  :)

Incredible motions to the clouds here with large sections of scud getting sucked up into the cloud bases at high speed (inflow), I could imagine a decent funnel dropping somewhere today!


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: scott86 on June 13, 2009, 12:22:25 pm
fingers crossed! its just a steady shower and overcast here at the minute, still very warm and humid though!


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 13, 2009, 12:40:00 pm
Just had some short-lived but heavy showers with large drops. Convection is getting impressive with large towering cu over Slieve Gallion and to the W over the Sperrins. These are bound to turn serious later. With that kind of CAPE, combined with any vorticity from hills/mountains, the chance of a brief meso/LT supercell can't be ruled out today.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 13, 2009, 12:56:46 pm
Huge cell close by to my W with rock hard anvil and updraught towers back-building into the rear!


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: brianb on June 13, 2009, 01:42:50 pm
1340 BST Thunder at Portballintrae


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: Roman White on June 13, 2009, 02:34:18 pm
I'm getting excited  :)
Good luck.  :)
I see ESTOFEX forecasts something for Ireland & Scotland for tomorrow too...


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 13, 2009, 02:35:17 pm
Good thunderstorm here with strong inflow!, loud thunder too.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: markt on June 13, 2009, 03:02:37 pm
Sounds like you folkd are having some fun with the weather!  :D


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: scott86 on June 13, 2009, 05:20:52 pm
just semi clear skies with some cumulus floating around down in the lisburn area  :(  fingers crossed we might get something later.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 13, 2009, 08:19:33 pm
What a day! I'm completely soaked as I write this. First of I seen a decent thunderstorm in Maghera during the early afternoon with strong inflow and blue i-c and occasional c-gs with loud thunder.

After this I was outside Draperstown where I saw a brief funnel cloud below a towering cu, it was the real mc coy, no question about that, but far away from the ground. I got some very poor snaps because the car was bouncing like crazy along the rough country roads leading up to the mountains. Seeing anything from NI roads is a nightmare with all the trees and hedges.

Next I was on top of Slieve Gallion where I saw a powerful cell on the E side of Lough Neagh with long flanking line, it was rock solid and seemed to be a serious cb with over shooting top. From the same location I observed t-storm number two far away to the NW dropping blue c-gs in the distance.

Before 19.00 back in Maghera we had the most almighty thunderstorm, the very best of the year so far with intense rain and some hail. The entire W sky was black as night with the storm announcing itself with a solid shelf cloud like something from the US. The storm produced almost continuous lightning for over one hour with three and even four blue-coloured bolts at the same time with the odd c-g thown into the mix. The thunder was frightening!. I was in a field this time trying to get video which wasn't very successful due to the rain but during the process I had an experience which I shall never forget which scared the life out of me. A sheep was hundred yards to my left, a flash of nasty lightning erupted above me, I instinctively took cover then glanced back at the sheep....it was stone dead, it had got killed instantly by a bolt of lightning!!. It was a horrible sight to see but what made it even worse was that it could have been me, someone was watching over me today!

So, a brillant day of storms, haven't a decent image from the lot but will post I have in due course along with some video.

Here's the sferics from that massive evening storm...

(http://i40.tinypic.com/2ueny45.gif)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 13, 2009, 08:27:54 pm
Sunday's outlook from Tony Gilbert....

(http://i41.tinypic.com/2l9pnpe.jpg)

6pm Sat

Slight Risk of Scattered Thundery Showers Ireland, Scotland, Central and northern UK. 09Z-21Z Sun 14th June 09

Once again a rather low risk outlook with a good probability of widespread thundery showers. Filling quasi stationary low just west of Ireland continues to push further surface fronts across the UK & Ireland during Sunday. Upper cold pool remains in place and sustains a moderate lapse rate as surface heating once again gets under way. A weak shear profile all but precludes any suggestion of severe weather. Though some reference is given to the risk of some late troughing N.Wales. Where a mid level dry incursion runs through on 30kt winds at 500 mb.



Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: brianb on June 13, 2009, 08:30:17 pm
Some people get all the luck!

Not much to report here, solid overcast with rumbles of thunder since early afternoon, a few flashes of lightning around 17:10 BST and a heavy shower, it's now raining lightly but steadily and has been for over two hours.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: Big Dipper on June 13, 2009, 09:12:25 pm
As usual I'm missing out on the T-storms. Thin cloud but dry. Metcheck forecasting sun here for tomorrow.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 13, 2009, 10:45:07 pm
I thought your area looked very active today Brian  :)

Anybody get any images today?

Here's a few of a large cell during the first storm of the day over Maghera. Pic 1 is the updraught region feeding into the back of a powerful cell, it even looks slightly twisted. The cell was so large I could only image that one area. Pic 2 shows the rear side of the anvil and pic 3 the top of the rock solid anvil at the zenith, which I just found out peaked at 32,000ft high.

(http://i43.tinypic.com/30neqm0.jpg)

(http://i39.tinypic.com/aln1ib.jpg)

(http://i42.tinypic.com/sz8m5z.jpg)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: John9929 on June 13, 2009, 11:19:27 pm
These were taken from the top of the hill above Aghalee shortly after 19:00BST. I guess this is your storm Martin, but from a safe distance! I saw this guy coming in and drove to this spot where I could see it coming over the lough. When it got here there was not much in the way of rain, but when I took the images the wind nearly blew me off my feet. The road on the way back home was littered with loose leaves and branches, and after it passed everything calmed down again. I got a few other images today as well but these are the more interesting. No thunder though!
(http://i44.tinypic.com/nlvsqq.jpg)

(http://i43.tinypic.com/jqtcab.jpg)

(http://i41.tinypic.com/2nvgjsi.jpg)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: brianb on June 13, 2009, 11:40:24 pm
Quote
I thought your area looked very active today Brian 
Maybe so but very little to see - just an amorphous black cloud parked overhead. Rumbles of thunder at intervals from early afternoon well into the evening (2000). One burst of thundery rain lasting 10-15 minutes, rainfall approx. 10mm judging from water collecting in containers but my guess is that most of that fell in steady rain which persisted for 4-5 hours. Not a breath of wind all afternoon, not even a mild squall let alone any tornadoes.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 13, 2009, 11:45:26 pm
That's the uninteresting kind of storm isn't it with just a blanket of cloud. All the cbs must have been hidden by mid level cloud, pity, that often hides the very nice structure. Maybe see something better on Sunday.

Very nice images John, that sure looks like the Maghera storm when it moved further E or NE, bit of shelf on it too. I'm amazed you got no mad lightning, could it be the same storm?. We must compare times, it hit here before 19.00, I could still hear distant rumbling around 20.30 when it was in the E or NE. Would this match up John?

Thanks for sharing the images  :)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: John9929 on June 14, 2009, 12:04:58 am
Martin the times of the images are from T to B, 19:45BST, 19:46BST and 19:39BST. HTH's.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: Roman White on June 14, 2009, 10:28:31 am
Here's a few of a large cell during the first storm of the day over Maghera.
Impressive clouds there, Martin  :)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 14, 2009, 11:42:06 am
Thanks Roman  :)

Cheers for the times John, that sure was the same storm, no doubt about that one.

Netweather say there's a convergence zone of NI today witha chance of funnels/weak tornadoes, there's a strong area over the NW coast. Met Office have another warning out today for all of NI for flash flooding hail and thunder.

Convective updraughts are exploding up here already with a few anvils around. Hot Sun too. It's all looking good.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 14, 2009, 01:18:17 pm
Sky looks like it's ready to explode here!. Incredible updraughts everywhere, some of which are leaning over at a sharp angle due to wind shear. Observed obvious rotation under a cell not too long ago. The clouds were swirling around in spectacular fashion. Sky is very dark here to the SE.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: brianb on June 14, 2009, 02:40:48 pm
Very little sun here - loads & loads of thick high cloud all morning, then about 5-10 mins of decent sunshine before a nasty cunim moved in, it's been parked overhead for the last half hour, loads of thunder rumbles & one brief interruption in power supply but just light rain (with big drops) so far. There was a decent SW breeze earlier but that's died to nothing.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 14, 2009, 04:02:04 pm
Two thunderstorms so far here. The first was in the distant NE booming away and very low to the ground with interesting lowerings trying to touch down with long flanking line. This was preceeded by an intense rain and hail shower.

Storm two arrived over Slieve Gallion and the Sperrins, actually two storms merged together with huge twil anvils with mammatus. The storm had a lovely shelf cloud and structured updraught base. Although it was not as electrically active as Saturday's it was the most photogenic structure of the last two days. It's dropping dangerous blue-coloured c-gs and still booming in the distance. Lovely!. Looks like the day is not over yet either.

The updraughts around today are incredible...the real deal  :)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 14, 2009, 04:06:45 pm
I bet there are storms in the vicinity of Maghaberry...or to the W of it. I bet John is away out in the car  :)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: John9929 on June 14, 2009, 05:27:28 pm
As it happens Martin not even a rumble here ::) 0ne or two nice dark clouds though but when they got here what a disappointment, some rain only! Still the evening's not over yet. Here's a nice mushroom type I got yesterday evening.
(http://i44.tinypic.com/fbg7b9.jpg)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 14, 2009, 05:31:40 pm
Nice mushroom top on that cell John.

Amazing they missed you, there where storms to the W and E of your area and further N. Not over yet though, high instability remains with us for the rest of evening. Then there's more for Monday.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 14, 2009, 06:06:51 pm
John, there are big showers and storms moving up towards you. One cluster is to your SW and the other further S. They might approach your area if they continue moving NE. They are red on radar. Worth keeping an eye on.

Sun is back out here after heavy rain. Convection visible again with huge anvils in the S and mammatus. There could be a few more storms yet this evening.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 14, 2009, 06:17:23 pm
There are storms to the N and SE of Lough Neagh.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: brianb on June 14, 2009, 07:46:59 pm
Quote
Sun is back out here after heavy rain.
Lucky you, solid mid level overcast here. I hope it doesn't do what it did last night - threatening to clear suckered me into setting up but yielded no observing opportunities. I think the problem is that the mid/upper atmosphere is well saturated. Not as much thunder here as yesterday but oppressive feeling continues.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 14, 2009, 09:00:09 pm
...I hope you get it clear tonight Brian.

I have just seen the most incredible sight this evening which has thrilled me beyond words as a person who wants to see good storm structure. I noticed strong cells and sferics on the radar moving up towards Lough Neagh. Since this is a spot we visit on a semi regular basis, my Mum and I took our dog up to visit the Lough for a walk, I was thinking there may have been a chance of catching a storm. We did, the storm had the most stunning shelf cloud I have ever seen, and always wanted to see, like something from the US. Some may argue this point, but it was the best shelf I have ever seen in comparison to other images and video from the UK. It was absolutely stunning!!!. It look up the entire skyline with solid double-stacked rolls reaching an incredible height with a bright horizontal division splitting it into two sections. All along the mid section was linear formations including lenticular type waves with variours colours among the white structure. At bottom was a thick lip running its entire length like a window sill. Below was a dense GREEN curtain of precip from which lightning flickered away from within, when this happened the precip lit up bright green. The lightning was impressive, mainly pink in colour with i-c and c-g bolts, at least three at a single time with angry thunder. The entire structure was both awesome and frightening as it approached very low to the ground with a nice curved feature on one side. It produced a great storm and torrential rain which flooded some of the road sides in the Ballyronan area. This was a sight I have always wanted to see, I never knew such an fabulous shelf cloud be seen in this country. At first, gettting images and video was a nightmare due to trees and hedges but we pulled over at a lay by and let it pass over us as in dramatic fashion. Have some images and video but they don't do it justice. The only thing missing was a tornado!. What an end to the day - that's 6 storms over the weekend. 2009 has been a great season so far!


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 14, 2009, 09:20:19 pm
I forgot to mention one thing which impressed me just as much as the shelf. The anvil (perhaps several) was blown down-wind ahead of the main body of the storm, this anvil was so large that I could see it from Maghera forming an overcast sky, it was only when looking over Slieve Gallion, and towards Ballyronan (while on the road) that I could see it connected to that huge storm. I have never seen an anvil canopy so big before, it was similar to what Conor was telling about the storms in Australia. Conor told me about how the sky just turned overcast long before the storm arrives in Oz due to the large anvil...it was just like that.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: JohnC on June 14, 2009, 09:48:11 pm
Are you going to post the photos/video, Martin ?.. even if you don't think they do them justice.

We are due TS's tomorrow mid-day in tho the afternoon. I may have to travel a little  south west or NW into Herefordshire/East Wales.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 14, 2009, 09:58:58 pm
Hey John, I will in due course, I have two days worth of images and video to go through and I'm knackered. Mon might be another storm say so I will wait until it is over before going througn everything. I could do with some rest, there will probably be a big NLC display tonight too...I wish I was getting paid for this lol. Anyway, what a great weekend of storms. Good luck on Mon John.  :)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 14, 2009, 09:59:49 pm
Outlook for Mon from Tony Gilbert.

(http://i40.tinypic.com/2rel1lw.jpg)

Moderate Risk of Thundery Showers UK & Ireland 0900Z-2359Z Mon 14th June 09

Further Scattered thundery showers expected through Monday as strong instability spreads across the UK & Ireland. Once again we have a very weakly sheared vertical profile limiting the risk of any severe weather event. Though it is noted that both Ireland & the UK show sharp convergence boundaries  where some funnel report may come to light.

ATM I only see one region where potential instability is enhanced by mid level dry air.(As per yellow box)



Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 14, 2009, 10:46:42 pm
Louise got a pic of that shelf cloud...

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=30776&posts=7#M448934

Pity about the houses but it shows how large it was!


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: markt on June 15, 2009, 07:08:59 am
Reading through, sounds like you've all had some stormy fun!  Now monday is here i've a bit more of a chance of getting something dramatic - fingeres crossed!  ;)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: JohnC on June 15, 2009, 09:46:00 am
Monday..(9.45am). Our potential for TS's will occur mid-afternoon coming in from the west and sw so I'll be off to my high ground panoramic view location(Coaley, near Stroud Glos.) after lunch. No point in travelling a fair way east atm  when we'll get our own later.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: brianb on June 15, 2009, 09:52:16 am
Quote
I'll be off to my high ground panoramic view location
Take care, getting struck by lightning is no fun. Take it from one who was lucky enough to survive.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: scott86 on June 15, 2009, 12:48:53 pm
lightning in belfast at 11.30 this morning. all is quiet at the moment, just a continuing shower


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 15, 2009, 01:44:16 pm
OMG..the convection here today is mind blowing!. The cells and towers are huge, exploding, and so solid you could bounce a sledge hammer off them. The anvils are back sheared also. At a casual glance at these tops one would be forgiven for thinking they are tornado warned!...awesome stuff.



Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: scott86 on June 15, 2009, 02:16:16 pm
northern england is getting hammered at the moment!!!!!


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: brianb on June 15, 2009, 03:19:16 pm
Quote
OMG..the convection here today is mind blowing!
I think this lot is in your direction - or maybe a bit east of you.
(http://www.bbhvig.uklinux.net/CuNim-090615-1356.jpg)
1456 BST. Very wide angle, actually a hand held 2 panel pano....

Much better day here ;)


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 15, 2009, 05:07:20 pm
Brian, that's a beautiful image/pano of the explosive convection today....very impressive. Wish I could take images as good as that!. Great stuff  :)


Two thunderstorms from Maghera today. One in the distant NE booming away for a long time, the other in the S over Slieve Gallion heading E. This one produced regular blue i-c and c-g lightning and great rumbles of thunder. Great updraught and anvil on it with flanking line behind it. Sky was very dark. It passed by to the side so I had the treat of not getting soaked and watched the storm in a t-sthirt while getting a tan. The convection which was followed was phenomenal, stunning towers and cells which kept passing over all afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a funnel cloud or even weak tornado report from N. Ireland today!

Update: John McConnell from Maghaberry is reporting a possible weak funnel.



Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 15, 2009, 05:10:09 pm
16 Cows killed in Scotland on Sun from t-storms...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/8100953.stm


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 15, 2009, 05:40:59 pm
Here's a list of the funnel clouds captured today in the UK...

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=30797&posts=14

Check the one John Mason caught.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: Big Dipper on June 15, 2009, 05:48:14 pm
That's very sad about the cows. Enjoying a cracking storm here in Oxford at last, as I type this.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 15, 2009, 06:30:33 pm
Great to hear you got some action Andy!

John C, anything today?

John 9929 reporting thunder from Maghaberry.

I just heard of a terrible incident. At work, one of my Mum's friends said a man was killed by lightning on Sunday in N. Ireland. Maybe in Coleraine area but I'm not certain yet.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 15, 2009, 06:41:22 pm
12,000 homes without power on Sat due to those storms storms in N. Ireland

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8100859.stm

Britain is getting pounded today by storms and a squall line. Non stop funnel reports.


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: jjb on June 15, 2009, 10:32:34 pm
Got these images of last evenings shelf cloud.
(http://i43.tinypic.com/pvom1.jpg)

(http://i40.tinypic.com/2qx5840.jpg)

(http://i43.tinypic.com/qsp4jb.jpg)



Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: brianb on June 15, 2009, 11:06:27 pm
Hmmm, that last one's been through the shredder.....


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: John9929 on June 15, 2009, 11:10:14 pm
That last one is interesting Jonathan, saw that shelf myself but didn't get images, you were on the ball there!


Title: Re: Severe T-Storm Potential - Ireland/UK - Sat-Mon June 13th-15th
Post by: martinastro on June 15, 2009, 11:31:56 pm
Great pics Jonathan!, that's a huge shelf for sure and nice whale's mouth under it too!

This evening Ryan Mc Donald and I observed a distant funnel cloud from Maghera.  It was must have lasted 10 or 15 min's duration and was like an inverted cone. It went up then back down again twice then got tilted into a horizontal position by the updraught, it curved a few times then turned straight as a ruler. It was a good distance away in the NE but was an obvious funnel. The cell which produced it was the most photogenic I have seen this year, a row of explosive updraughts towering into the sky at incredible height all catching the lowering Sun. A fantastic end to 3 days of action!