Astronomy, Photography and Weather

General Category => Weather & Atmospherics => Topic started by: martinastro on May 03, 2009, 04:39:12 pm



Title: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 03, 2009, 04:39:12 pm
This is way too far away yet but I was looking at the CAPE values for N. Ireland this Fri and Sat evening and they got my attention to say the least. On fri CAPE is 400-500 with LI of -1. Sat CAPE is almost 1000!!! with LI values varying between -1 and -3. It's too early to get excited yet but if these values hold out closer to the period there will be a high chance of strong thunderstorms over NI for the said period...fingers crossed. Hopefully more info will become available later in the week. Sat is showing the highest values this year so far!

For those who don't know, CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy which is a measure of how unstable the atmosphere is. LI or Lifted Index requires negative values which we have for both days. One to watch.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For NI - Fri/Sat May 8/9th
Post by: stuart2588 on May 03, 2009, 06:20:01 pm
Looking good Martin. Keeping the fingers crossed for some action.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For NI - Fri/Sat May 8/9th
Post by: brianb on May 03, 2009, 07:42:37 pm
Quote
Looking good Martin. Keeping the fingers crossed for some action.
There was more than enough last night .... spent most of the small hours dodging ******** showers >:(

If you want "entertaining" weather, please confine it to the hours when it can be seen.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For NI - Fri/Sat May 8/9th
Post by: martinastro on May 03, 2009, 09:01:43 pm
This is from the Irish Weather Network...

A Very interesting ECMWF tonight in terms of weather action.
 
Next weekend is definitely one to watch as pointed out by Martinastro & Snowbie on the Thunderstorms & Convective Potential thread.

Although very uncertain at present, there are some decent signs of potential for some continental air being imported. Equally, there are good indications at present, I would say 45% at the moment, of a high pressure cell building about to our far west/northwest.

At the same time, ECMWF is modelling a shallow low over Ireland which could most definitely spark off heavy, slow moving thundery showers if this evening's outputer were to hypothetically verify:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-144.GIF?03-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-168.GIF?03-0

There are indications of the Arctic Oscillation becoming less positive over the coming days, which would support some pressure rises, at lower latitudes than high up north, pretty much what is modelled on ECMWF this evening:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

The far out section of ECMWF FI also continues to be interesting, with high pressure dominating to our north, generally brought about by a disruption to the pattern in the Pacific, and with a shallow low continuing to dominate over Ireland. At any rate, it would be nice if this output were to verify as there would be a good chance of thundery outbreaks if it were to do so. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0

All in all, some fairly dominant westerlies in the coming week with a chance at present of perhaps some interesting patterns next weekend. Equally, these could degenerate when getting nearer to the actual timeframe.

Regards,



Title: Re: Storm Potential For NI - Fri/Sat May 8/9th
Post by: martinastro on May 04, 2009, 07:40:52 pm
Sunday is also showing good CAPE and LI for NI. That's a thundery potential for three days a in a row.


This from UKWW....

Synoptic Analysis and Discussion

Issued 4th May 10.30BST

Analysis & Discussion

Across the Atlantic a strong powerful Jet core (for May) is likely to maintain a very unsettled week - esp in the NW of the UK.  The First wave of this is currently spreading cloud across many parts of the UK.  HRV imagery indicates most of the UK is currently cloudy and after a chilly night (Zero to +3) across parts of Central southern and SE England - temperatures will remain somewhat depressed through the day.  There is some sunshine across the Channel Islands and the far SE, but cloud is encroaching here all the time.

Radar indicates some Moderate Rain across Wales and the Midlands (note Moderate Showers at Shawbury at 08Z) Rain & Drizzle over N IReland is not well placed by the radar due to Castor Bay currently out of the Network.

The rain largely driven by a warm advection field which is sinking south leaving a legacy of outbreaks of Rain and Drizzle across these areas.  The frontal structure across the UK is complex driven by an upper front moving south in tandem with the warm advection field  and the surface front (esp cold front) lagging behind to the NW.  This leaves most northern areas in a Psuedo warm sector.   2-5mm coming south across England today, esp on Moors and Higher ground.  Temps well depressed in comparison to recently. 12-14C - perhaps warmer in Eastern Scotland if breaks appear this afternoon.

Warmer air at 850mb as evidenced by ther 10C 850 WBPT isotherm is approaching Western Ireland ( also extensive low cloud on HRV Imagery) will sweep ESE over the next 24 hrs as the cold front slows over N ireland and N England tomorrow, the cold front thermodynamicly weak with sporadic rain and drizzle coming south. The activity pepping up through the day as a wave currently in Mid- Altantic moves east - 10-20mm coming east perhaps 30mm across the SW uplands and Mountains of SW Scotland. The warm sector covering as evidenced by 9-11C WBPT air - temperatures in any brightness responding accordingly by the surge in thickness - therefore some 7C higher across the South and esp SE tomorrow with 20C possible in any sunny spells in the SE through the afternoon, though forecast ascents look dissapointingly cloudy, nevertheless some topographical breaks occuring and leading to some sunnier spells.

A strong upper trough exiting the Canadian east coast later tomorrow induces cyclogenesis as it approaches the Right Entrance to a strong SW Jet nearing 150knts in Mid Atlantic by tomorrow night, this deepening depression looks set to combine with strong 850-950mb Warm advection and send an active warm front NE across Northern Britain through Wednesday with strong oragraphic enhancement.  Another 40-50mm possible on the mountains of W Scotland and 10-15mm elsewhere.   Strong Winds developing in the North too esp around the coasts of N IReland Scotland.  The cold front surges ESE across the UK, but weakens as dynamical forcing is lost and the driving upper trough relaxes away to the NE, leaving a weak front moving SE across the SE.

The end of the weak looks fairly cool and Showery esp in the NW with a strong upper trough covering the northern UK and bands of Showers moving east merging into longer spells of rain and partial thicknesses on the cool side of Early May, though again with most of the forcing in the north the south will remain mainly dry with only limited instability...

The main N Atlantic regime is looking decidely mobile at the moment with a strong temperature contrast across N America which is resulting in a frequent Strong ZOnal Jet nr 55N.  Pressure remains high across Western Russia and the Urals, and this leads to a lack of the pressure across Central Europe. This maintains a WNW flow across the UK with positive anomalies nr the Azores.  Little change seems indicated to this general pattern over the coming 10 days with negative anomolies remaining N of the UK and over parts of N Europe.

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings


Title: Re: Storm Potential For NI - Fri/Sat May 8/9th
Post by: martinastro on May 04, 2009, 07:57:28 pm
Here are the LI and CAPE charts (from Netweather GFS) I was looking at for Fri, Sat, and Sun. These are changing all the time from lower values to much greater CAPE like a yo-yo with every run. Certainly interesting. Throw in moving fronts and troughs combined with orographic lifting and wind shear and there could be a moderate risk of t-storms and tornadoes due to a strong upper wind field from the LP over Ireland at that time. I will wait and see what the experts say closer to the time...

(http://i42.tinypic.com/2w6rw9e.png)

(http://i44.tinypic.com/2yynm38.png)

(http://i44.tinypic.com/rs7d42.png)


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: stuart2588 on May 04, 2009, 08:33:20 pm
Thats shaping up nicely. Looking like we could be right in the middle of it. I am definitely going chasing this weekend if all stays this way.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: jjb on May 04, 2009, 10:01:51 pm
Will keep my camera handy Martin it is looking rough for the end of the week.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: Tyler on May 05, 2009, 12:27:16 am
Good luck to you Martin!, both my chases this year had less than 2000 cape, so you'll have plenty with 1000! looks like saturday may be the day for me too  ;D


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 05, 2009, 03:31:13 am
Thanks Tyler, extremely high CAPE values don't happen too often here so it can be exciting when they do occur. Amazingly though good t-storms and tornadoes have occurred many times in Ireland/UK with only several hundred CAPE, as long as another lifting mechanism is in place with strong wind shear. The problem now is that GFS is jumping all over the place, tonight's update has completely downgraded Fri and Sat's t-storm potential but keeps Sun as a potential day with Mon and Tues also in the offering, no doubt this will change again for better or worse. It's quite heart breaking to go from 1000 CAPE progged on Sat to 100 so quickly. Trying to forecast these things can be depressing lol. I will wait and see MUCH closer to the time. So, if this is a damp squip or an exciting event I will keep the thread updated with the latest info for the sake of interest and discussion.

Good luck chasing on Sat Tyler, I enjoyed your previous two accounts and hope you get another successful day. You never know, it could be a tornado day!.  :)



Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 05, 2009, 03:57:29 pm
Latest GFS has all 3 days back on cue for convection.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For NI - Fri/Sat May 8/9th
Post by: Roman White on May 05, 2009, 06:48:18 pm
Here are the LI and CAPE charts (from Netweather GFS) I was looking at for Fri, Sat, and Sun.
Martin, do you know any links to the same charts as you posted above but for all Europe?

BTW, a bit offtopic, I have found a chart (http://lightningwizard.estofex.org/Europe/gfs_spout_eur0.png), and I see that it indicated some activity above my area for today.
Martin, can you explain please, what do those numbers (25, 50,...) do indicate? Probability? (of what?)


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 06, 2009, 12:11:36 am
Tornado and supercell parameter looks very strong over NI on Fri.

Hi Roman, I use lightningwizard charts too, and most people do. I think those numbers mean mid level CAPE = as in how unstable the mid layers of the atmosphere are for a given time of day. It's easier to read the charts if you select one parameter at a time, that's how I do it anyway.

Ok this a good one, convective maps from lightning wizard, these are great..

http://lightningwizard.com/maps/

You just select the amount of hours ahead of the current time into the future and you can see what might happen convection wise. Hope this helps. It takes a while to get used to but with practice it's easy. There's a section on there about what the different maps mean, it can be complicated but very educational if you want to learn more about conevctive forecasting.

I also use netweather, but it's for the UK only as a far as I can see...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 06, 2009, 12:16:57 am
I don't know how to get charts like those used by netweather for Europe....but I'm sure there must be something.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 06, 2009, 08:38:10 pm
UKww Weather watch for severe gales with squalls, thunder, heavy rain, hail & snow   Issued Weds 06/05/2009 2000BST

Areas affected by Warning -  NW and western Scotland, upper Highlands, N and W Isles
Valid from: 2000BST Weds 6th May- 1500Z Thurs 7th May

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

General evolution:


A very deep depression for May is now developing on a strong jet to the NW of the UK with fronts moving east across the above areas along with some heavy rainfall, it is expected 968mb nr 60N 10W by 06Z tomorrow.
Forecast:
As the gradient increases tonight winds will pick up and become gale to severe gale force in exposed spots from the west by 21Z along with gusts to 65mph. Outbreaks of moderate rain, heavy in places will accompany the winds, some 20mm has already fallen in the last 12 hours in the Western Scottish Isles and a further 20mm is possible but it will become showery from the west by later in the evening. Some of the showers will be very heavy and squally with hail and thunder and gusts to above 75mph. Snow may fall above 400m giving a localised cover on the mountains. There may be some localised flooding and more widespread hazardous road conditions in the wind and rain tonight.

Another area of heavy rain looks likely to affect the W Isles & western Scotland by midday Thursday for around 3 hours adding to the high rainfall totals.

Issued by DJW for UKww, 1900z 06/05/2009



Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 07, 2009, 10:51:43 am
Looks like Scotland had a lively night during the early morning hours with loads of lightning and gales!

Instability is still on for Fri. Risk of heavy showers of rain/hail/thunder from the word go!. The atmosphere even turns unstable after midnight on Thurs so the odd flash cant be ruled out in those coastal showers during the night hours.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: scott86 on May 07, 2009, 01:51:54 pm
Just seen the weather on tv, intense rain, squally winds with thunder mixed in to pass over tonight, havnt seen anythng forecast on the internet though???


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 07, 2009, 02:07:31 pm
I seen that to Scott and have asked a question on another forum. Definitely looks like one to watch. I checked the lightningwizard charts and although I can't comment on thunder they do show the potential for a tornado from that front. I'm guessing if the front is severe enough it should lift/force the warm air ahead of it upwards causing convective cells which could produce some lightning. If they get organized then there would the potential for another severe squall line to form...and we recall the last one very well.  :). Definitely worth watching the radar this evening. If anyone here is crazy enough to go out and watch the front arrive in, while getting battered by wind and rain, there's the chance of seeing a great shelf cloud  :). Might give it a go myself. Let's hope some of the weather forums will provide us with more info. Maybe TORRO will issue a forecast soon.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: scott86 on May 07, 2009, 02:11:14 pm
I could safely say il be one of those crazy people!  :) hopefully there will still be a bit of daylight to get a few snaps and videos! il be keeping a close eye out on the internet!


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 07, 2009, 02:14:00 pm
Great to hear it Scott...I will be thinking about you when I'm getting soaked  :). Sky already has a nasty look to it.

Here's the RTE forecast, if those wind speeds are correct then a severe wind event is likely...

Today's Weather
Cool and windy with brief sunny spells and scattered showers. The showers will merge to heavier rain in the west before spreading countrywide this afternoon and evening with the risk of isolated thunderstorms. Southwest winds will increase very strong with gusts up to 100 km/h. Highest temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees.

Tonight's Weather
Tonight will be cool and very windy with clear spells and occasional showers. The showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the west with the risk of hail or thunder. Southwest winds will reach gale force with gusts as high as 110 km/h - especially in the north and west. Lowest temperatures will range 4 to 8 degrees.

Tomorrow Friday will be cool and blustery with a mix of sunny spells and further showers, with a continuing risk of hail and thunder.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 07, 2009, 02:18:07 pm
This is from the Irish Weather Network...

They are calling for a quite an active front to cross the country later. There is mild and moist air ahead over us atm so the potential of more 'favourable' advection into the front could be there. From just looking at present conditions across the country, a full on squall line to develop is low but with with more active parts on the front than others i think with the mtns aiding in lift. I think the surface temps are far too low for convection to aid in the front when it crosses over the country.

West east split with west having the heavier stuff.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 07, 2009, 02:21:07 pm
From 'Two' weather forum...

Certainly looks like a squall line will pass through most of the country through the evening and night.

Squally winds, heavy rain and potentially hail and embedded thunderstorms are a possibility.



Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: scott86 on May 07, 2009, 02:25:25 pm
Sounds very promising indeed! Fingers crossed on some lightning over this direction!! Cameras at the ready! :)


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 07, 2009, 02:25:36 pm
Here's two charts. The first is the experimental spout/tornado index. The 2nd is the siginifcant tornado param.

http://i43.tinypic.com/28a2rt0.png

http://i42.tinypic.com/xla4uh.png


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 07, 2009, 04:28:29 pm
Here's a quick mention about Fri from Tony Gilbert. Nice of him to have a look at the forecast since he's in the US storm chasing at the min!...

''Yes, based on the current GFS model output tomorrow should bring some thundery showers to Ireland, Scotland, N.UK and Wales through Friday. Weak wind shear reduces the risk of anything severe occurring. Though we can expect some gusts to reach 35 kts in line with the 850 mb jet stream. Lapse rates look pretty intense with cold pooling aloft so expect some small hail reports''.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 07, 2009, 04:42:35 pm
Here's the cold front making landfall over W. Ireland. Credit: Sat24

(http://i42.tinypic.com/b8wead.jpg)


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: scott86 on May 07, 2009, 05:13:53 pm
it will probly be hitting you martin before it reaches here, keep me updated! :)


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: stuart2588 on May 07, 2009, 07:19:16 pm
Raintoday.co.uk is showing quite heavy returns


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: stuart2588 on May 07, 2009, 07:35:29 pm
It has arrived here in Glengormley. Heavy winds and small hail.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: Roman White on May 07, 2009, 07:37:20 pm
Here's two charts. The first is the experimental spout/tornado index.

http://i43.tinypic.com/28a2rt0.png
The same chart also indicates impressive situation in central and S Ukraine.  :)


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: scott86 on May 07, 2009, 07:41:48 pm
briefly intense hail and rain just hit lisburn! pretty impressive shelf cloud with it too!


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: Paul on May 07, 2009, 07:43:36 pm
Yep, a quite sudden arrival at Larne just a few mins ago - horizontal rain and a great increase in wind!


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 07, 2009, 08:09:01 pm
Yip, just in and got similar. I went out to a good location and waited for it to come in. There was so much mid level cloud around that I couldn't see much. Then, suddenly, the cold front/squall line appeared over the Sperrins with shocking speed with a pure evil shelf cloud on the leading edge. This was worth the trip. The shelf was pure black with a silvery-grey precip curtain behind with lumps of dark scud suspended in the air. There were some serious gusts from it which gave the trees a good shake and knocked my tripod over a few times. Under it was heavy rain and hail stones with a sudden drop in the temp. My fingers were soon red with the cold as if I had been throwing snow balls without gloves. No lightning which was surprising considering the appearance of the thing, but it was worth the effort to see that shelf. I have images and video, but if you don't like rain drops on images then you wont like these lol...it was crazy trying to take an image without the lens getting blasted!!. Anyway, good show and hopefully a taster for Fri.

Any images Stuart/Scott ?


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 07, 2009, 08:16:30 pm
Squall line has intensified even more as it hit SW Scotland...thunderstorms breaking out from it.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 07, 2009, 08:20:50 pm
The squall line was photographed over Belfast Lough with a recorded drop in temp of 4 degrees C in 15 mins!

Link to image...

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/p/26224/742702.aspx#742702


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: brianb on May 07, 2009, 08:26:28 pm
Quote
It has arrived here in Glengormley. Heavy winds and small hail.
"Hit" here just after 1830 BST. Strong winds (est gusts to force 9) & very heavy rain which persisted for 10-15 minutes, fading out rather than ending. Now (2025) still overcast & light rain with force 6 wind.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 07, 2009, 08:49:03 pm
Thanks for the report Brian!!, sounds very unpleasant near the coast, it was bad enough inland.

Thunderstorms breaking out on W coast of Ireland. Atmosphere begins to turn unstable from now until Fri.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 07, 2009, 10:58:32 pm
Risk map for Fri from Tony Gilbert

(http://i43.tinypic.com/2m42fqd.jpg)


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: stuart2588 on May 07, 2009, 11:11:05 pm
No images for me tonight unfortunately. I was just parking my car when it arrived and got completely soaked lol. I am hoping to finish up early tomorow in the hope of getting some pics.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: brianb on May 08, 2009, 09:17:59 am
Quote
Risk map for Fri from Tony Gilbert
Wintry showers, check. Definitely convective but it's hard to see the tops through the near complete overcast. The energy is coming off the sea like it does in autumn/winter. No lightning or thunder noted.

Gusty winds, check, force 6 with frequent gusts to force 8.

Hail, not that I've seen, so far.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 08, 2009, 09:55:43 am
That was a wild night last night!!. Just about everything going on. Seen 7 Moonbows, Moondogs, Coronae, powerful squalls, torrential horizontal rain, stars, anvils. One awesome cell could be seen over the Sperrins at 01.00 with a huge updraught lit by the Moon. John 9929 seen flashes of lightning from that direction. Some of the blackest and nastiest night time skies I have seen in a long time with cell after cell passing through, mammatus also seen.

Here's today's forecast from Netweather....

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 08, 2009, 10:45:44 am
Impressive morning already with huge anvils galore, mammatus, and squalls. Interesting to see what the higher CAPE values do to this stuff during the afternoon!


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: scott86 on May 08, 2009, 12:24:55 pm
Just sat in work in belfast at the moment, the rain is hammering the roof! seen some very large cells this morning when i was on the train,, its a pity im not out watching! Hopefully there will be a few good sights when i get out for my lunch!


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 08, 2009, 05:15:31 pm
I'm just in and I have to say that I was very disappointed with today's lack of action. It seems to have been a bust forecast except the very SE of Ireland which had some lightning. Here, from sunrise onwards,  there was plenty to see, huge anvils, mammatus etc, but none of them were capable of producing a t-storm or funnel. The updraughts were too weak, the anvils were soft/fluffy, no well defined bases, no shear at all, it was hopeless. It was just a day of weak convection and showers. The sky did try several times to produce the goods but failed. There was just not enough energy in those clouds. Maybe something will arrive in before sunset but I doubt it....not a good day from my end anyway....ready for round 2 whenever that may be.  :)


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 08, 2009, 07:08:34 pm
Sferic S of Lough Neagh near John's location.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: Steveo74 on May 08, 2009, 08:08:57 pm
Thunder & lightning with hail.. Lost power to house for a few seconds...  Got pics and short video, will post soon.  :o.  Happened around 18:30ish....


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 08, 2009, 09:01:18 pm
Excellent Steven!!!, look forward to the pics. Good to hear those cells produced some action after all  :)

Nice mammatus display here this evening.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: Steveo74 on May 09, 2009, 09:04:41 am
Here are some of the shots I got between the Thunder & Lightning showers...  :)

(http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3606/3514238334_114387e288.jpg)

(http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3624/3513431771_d06c2f56c8.jpg)

(http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3632/3513421359_3e5a5cbf41.jpg)

(http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3664/3513424129_19f5e33265.jpg)

(http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3664/3514233996_3ef31632d3.jpg)

I was preparing dinner and I had a look out the patio doors and notice the sky getting darker and as I looked up I saw the lightning flash across the sky and an almighty bang straight after it.  It only lasted 4 or 5mins and the sun was shining soon after, the hail was intense and lay on the ground for a few mins...  ;D

Still have a wee video to process but that's not worth much  :(


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 09, 2009, 01:48:05 pm
Dramatic as hell Steven!!  :), love the first 2 images and the last. Hope the video turns out good. Thanks.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: Roman White on May 09, 2009, 02:00:48 pm
Excellent shots Steven.  :)
HDR makes them look even more dramatic... but the horizon must remain straight imho  ;D


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 09, 2009, 04:59:55 pm
The 300 or so CAPE about today is producing some very nice convection again, some anvils and good updraughts passing through , some look good enough to produce a funnel.


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: Steveo74 on May 11, 2009, 09:28:50 am
Thanks Martin & Roman!!!  I know Roman, lens can reallly make it look freaky!!!  ;D


Title: Re: Storm Potential For IR/NI - Fri/Sat/Sun May 8-10th
Post by: martinastro on May 13, 2009, 03:04:10 pm
Some decent CAPE and LI around for N. Ireland and central Ireland on Sun/Mon. Maybe a chance for some t-storms during that period. Will start new thread closer to the time.