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Nov.22 storms over eastern Europe

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Author Topic: Nov.22 storms over eastern Europe  (Read 759 times)
Roman White
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« on: November 21, 2008, 08:10:13 pm »

It seems that some interesting weather will arrive on Saturday.  Roll Eyes

Powerful LP area, centered above Belorus, will cause a long cold front in SE direction (from Greece & W Turkey across the Black Sea, Crimea, S, central & N Ukraine, down to Moscow).

A lot of precipitation (rain, mixed, or wet snow) are expected to fall on tomorrow (Nov.22) evening in S, central, N & E Ukraine. See the map below


I may have a first snow here in Poltava during Sat late evening.  Smiley
« Last Edit: November 22, 2008, 08:23:00 am by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2008, 09:06:58 pm »

That looks interesting Roman! I hope you get your first snow soon. Have you checked out the convective possiblities from this?.

Here's the ESTOFEX forecast. Might be worth keeping the camera ready.

http://www.estofex.org/
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« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2008, 08:21:50 am »

Oh yes! New ESTOFEX forecast arrived and it gives level 1-2 severe weather for my area.

Just few words: accelerating cold front, powerful cyclone heading from SW (Romania - Black Sea), severe wind gusts and tornado risk.



Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 22 Nov 2008 06:00 to Sun 23 Nov 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 21 Nov 2008 23:28
Forecaster: PUCIK / GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

A massive arctic outbreak is underway across much of Europe as very cold air is pushed southward on the forward side of the high pressure system, which has settled over E Atlantic. Temperatures at 850 hPa level are approaching -10C in the airmasss. Very strong jet sream is rotating around the deep trough at mid-levels. Under its left exit region, further cyclogenesis is expected and rapid deepening of surface low, now centered over the Ukraine will occur. A forementioned low will progress to NE, following SSWly steering flow at mid levels. Significant cold front will affect the weather in the belt from Italy to the Black sea region. Behind the front, very cold airmass is advected, characterized by steep lapse rates and low moisture content.

DISCUSSION

...Belt from Black Sea to W Russia...

Closer to the center of the deep low, this area will have yet even stronger kinematic fields than the one discussed above. DLS approximately 50 m/s and LLS around 20 m/s is expected just ahead of the accelerating cold front. Instability will be shallow, but nevertheless very strong forcing should yield a forced convective line, advancing to the NE. This line is expected to form in the exit region of LLJ. SREH values ahead of the front will climb to 800 J/kg, suggesting strong potential for rotating updrafts. With 850 hPa winds over 30 m/s, widespread severe gusts can be expected with the line and also tornadoes are anticipated due to the significant helical flow in the inflow layer of the storms. The greatest threat should exist across E Belarus / W Russia where the strongest convective signals are generated by GFS. Here, widespread severe gusts along with isolated extreme values are expected ( i.e. over 32 m/s). Moreover, chance of significant tornadoes exists with such strong LLS and SREH0-1 km values over 300 J/kg. Due to the above mentioned threats, Level 2 seems to be warranted.


Ukrainian meteocenter storm forecast:
Nov.22-23: powerful precipitation (rain transforming into wet snow), wind gusts 15-25 m/s

Meteoblue forecast changed:
The most active precip. area (rain up to 10 l/m2) will pass across me on Sat/Sun midnight:

Due to the cold front, temperature drop will be from +13C (Sat noon) to -1C (Sun evening).
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Roman White
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2008, 08:28:45 am »

10:25 EET report:
+10oC (which is abnormally high), 100% cloudy (St), strong gusty wind but below 10 m/s.

13:20 EET report:
+11oC, 100% cloudy (St), strong wind ~7m/s, intense rain just started.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2008, 11:27:18 am by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2008, 04:07:49 pm »

That's a serious looking forecast Roman!. I have seen cool t-storms and a funnel which almost touched down from here in a level 1, but I have never been in a level 2!. Looks like you have good potential for tornadoes. Do let us know if anything interesting does happen.  If you where anywhere near the coast you might see a waterspout. Keep the camera close to hand. Good luck.  Smiley
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2008, 06:57:58 pm »

20:30 EET report:
+12oC (surely a record!), 100% cloudy (St or Ns; Sc), strong wind with gusts up to 10...15m/s, no rain at the moment.

But it was raining here since 13:20 EET, with short pauses. The rain power varied (gentle to very intense), but maybe a heavy rainfall will happen near midnight, sleet is also possible during the late night.
I can't say anything about tornadoes, imho it will not be so much severe.

A camera will not be much useful because the storm is passing during the night  Sad

Now on the most of the weather maps the situation becomes clearly visible:
Observed temperatures by Meteoblue at 17UT - cold front is visible


P.S. I watched evening news on TV: intense wet snow was falling in Kiev in the afternoon.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2008, 09:25:53 pm by Roman White » Report Spam   Logged

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« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2008, 08:31:28 pm »

Thanks for the update Roman. That looks like an active cold front. Pity it's at night. Do you have any local sferics charts to check for any lightning activity?

I found this one...

http://webflash.ess.washington.edu/

The leading edge of the cold front ,and the rear, are the two main areas where a tornado could form but it will be unseen at night. Let us know if you hear any reports.  Smiley
« Last Edit: November 22, 2008, 08:33:28 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

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« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2008, 09:44:48 pm »

Martin, I don't have many links to useful weather charts, so thanks for that one, I'll bookmark it. BTW, on that chart ( http://wwlln.net/WWLLN_movies/Movie_of_Lightning_in_EurAfrica_BIG.gif ) I saw many lightnings in E Bulgaria - NW Turkey, which were associated with this cyclone.

And another update:
23:30 EET:
+12oC (wow!), 100% cloudy (Ns), pressure 730mmHg (record low; normal is 753), strong wind 7...10 m/s with gusts to 15 m/s, moderate rain. It seems that the rain intensity and the wind speed are increasing.

Map of observed temperatures by Ukr.meteocenter (20UT), a little illustrated by me  Wink
You can see that great temperature gradient between NW and SE - the cold front is evident!

(I don't know why at that moment rain/snow weren't indicated in the map)
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Roman White
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« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2008, 07:00:54 am »

After midnight the rain became more intense, but still at +11C. Further I don't know (went to bed).

But when I woke up at 08:30 EET I delightfully said : "Here are the results! The cold front passed."  Smiley
It was -1C, still strong wind (7...10m/s) and 100% cloudy, but... there was snow!  Cheesy
Wet snow certainly falled during late night, and the was a bit (~1cm) of snow on the ground and on the trees.
Some photos:




That's the weather I enjoyed!
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Roman White
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« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2008, 08:52:16 am »

Got this satellite image (at 10:00 EET), and analyzed it a bit.

(light blue - areas with a snow on the ground - you can see it, and a question mark means that snow on the ground is possible but not visible)
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Roman White
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« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2008, 11:33:15 am »

Now it is 13:20 EET and outside there is a classic mild winter day: 0oC, fair, strong wind, a bit of snow on the ground. ...Pretty nice Smiley

And also first icicles on the roof:   Smiley

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« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2008, 03:25:59 pm »

Nice work Roman!. Thanks for sharing those images. You got snow after all then. Excellent. That sat image is fantastic. Thanks for keeping us updated with the convective weather in Ukraine.
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« Reply #12 on: November 23, 2008, 03:36:27 pm »

Thanks Martin. If I don't have that sat image, I couldn't see where the snow falled - it is very useful.
Half of that snow melt, but a bit is still here... Another wet snow is forecasted on Nov.26. Also I have updated my weather page http://www.poltava-astro.narod.ru/weather_eng.html

Now I have completely clear skies, so I'm going away for observations  Cheesy
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